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Factoid

Hot hand? Or marked man?

Todd Gurley coming off 4-TD game

When a player like Todd Gurley puts up huge numbers, is it best to try to ride the hot hand? Or will his 4-touchdown game at Seattle work against him on Sunday, with him having to play with a target on his back against a Tennessee defense that’s been good against the run?

Earlier this week, I looked at 200-yard receivers and was surprised at the lack of production for that group in their next games. So a similar look at running backs is in order.

For this one, I looked at all running backs who have scored 4 touchdowns in a game in this century. Then I looked at how productive those running backs were in their next games.

There are 35 backs who’ve scored 4 TDs in the regular season and then played the next week. That group tended to do just fine, averaging 108 rushing and 28 receiving yards, with 39 TDs.

Some of those backs, of course, aren’t in Gurley’s class. Derrick Blaylock, most notably, wasn’t even the best back on his own team. Kansas City had an unusual game in which both Blaylock and Priest Holmes scored 4 TDs in a blowout win over Atlanta. T.J. Duckett shared time. Jonas Gray wasn’t even active in his next game. And others. (I’ve got the second-class backs below tagged with black dots.)

If you look only at the 25 top-level backs who scored 4 TDs, they tended to be very productive in their next games, averaging 120 rushing and 27 receiving yards, with 34 TDs.

I’m not crazy about the matchup at Tennessee. The Titans are good against the run, and they’ve allowed 23 passing versus only 5 rushing touchdowns. But tough to find more than a handful of running backs who look likely to outproduce him this week.

RUNNING BACKS WITH 4 TD (next game)
YearPlayerOpp.RunRecTotalTD
2000• Mike Anderson, Den.at Sea.13101312
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.Car.DNPDNPDNPDNP
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.N.O.220412613
2000Fred Taylor, Jac.Tenn.104221261
2000Marshall Faulk, St.L.at T.B.79531324
2001Marshall Faulk, St.L.Atl.168582263
2002Marshall Faulk, St.L.at Ariz.178582361
2002Shaun Alexander, Sea.S.F.96251211
2002Priest Holmes, K.C.Jac.84321160
2002Clinton Portis, Den.at Oak.525571
2003Clinton Portis, Den.Clev.13961452
2004• T.J. Duckett, Atl.Car.DNPDNPDNPDNP
2004• Derrick Blaylock, K.C.Ind.1819370
2004Priest Holmes, K.C.Ind.143822253
2004• Willis McGahee, Buff.at Mia.914950
2005LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.at N.E.134341682
2005Shaun Alexander, Sea.at Wash.9841021
2005Shaun Alexander, Sea.Dall.610610
2006• Reggie Bush, N.O.at Dall.371251621
2006• Joseph Addai, Ind.at Ten.5611670
2006Steven Jackson, STLnone------------
2006Larry Johnson, K.C.at St.L.17201721
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.Oak.10951142
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.at Den.105741794
2006LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.at K.C.66721381
2007• Jamal Lewis, Clev.at Pitt.358430
2007LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.Hou.901910
2008• Ronnie Brown, Mia.S.D.12581331
2008DeAngelo Williams, Car.T.B.18661922
2008DeAngelo Williams, Car.at N.O.17801780
2008Brian Westbrook, Phil.at NYG131722032
2008Michael Turner, Atl.at S.D.12001200
2010• Darren McFadden, Oak.Sea.111241350
2011Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.at Atl.11211130
2012• Doug Martin, T.B.S.D.68511190
2013Jamaal Charles, K.C.Ind.106381441
2014• Jonas Gray, N.E.Det.DNPDNPDNPDNP
2014Marshawn Lynch, Sea.at K.C.12411250
2015• Danny Woodhead, S.D.at Oak.55531080
2017Todd Gurley, LARat Tenn.????

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index