When a player like Todd Gurley puts up huge numbers, is it best to try to ride the hot hand? Or will his 4-touchdown game at Seattle work against him on Sunday, with him having to play with a target on his back against a Tennessee defense that’s been good against the run?
Earlier this week, I looked at 200-yard receivers and was surprised at the lack of production for that group in their next games. So a similar look at running backs is in order.
For this one, I looked at all running backs who have scored 4 touchdowns in a game in this century. Then I looked at how productive those running backs were in their next games.
There are 35 backs who’ve scored 4 TDs in the regular season and then played the next week. That group tended to do just fine, averaging 108 rushing and 28 receiving yards, with 39 TDs.
Some of those backs, of course, aren’t in Gurley’s class. Derrick Blaylock, most notably, wasn’t even the best back on his own team. Kansas City had an unusual game in which both Blaylock and Priest Holmes scored 4 TDs in a blowout win over Atlanta. T.J. Duckett shared time. Jonas Gray wasn’t even active in his next game. And others. (I’ve got the second-class backs below tagged with black dots.)
If you look only at the 25 top-level backs who scored 4 TDs, they tended to be very productive in their next games, averaging 120 rushing and 27 receiving yards, with 34 TDs.
I’m not crazy about the matchup at Tennessee. The Titans are good against the run, and they’ve allowed 23 passing versus only 5 rushing touchdowns. But tough to find more than a handful of running backs who look likely to outproduce him this week.
RUNNING BACKS WITH 4 TD (next game) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Opp. | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
2000 | • Mike Anderson, Den. | at Sea. | 131 | 0 | 131 | 2 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | Car. | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | N.O. | 220 | 41 | 261 | 3 |
2000 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | Tenn. | 104 | 22 | 126 | 1 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | at T.B. | 79 | 53 | 132 | 4 |
2001 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | Atl. | 168 | 58 | 226 | 3 |
2002 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | at Ariz. | 178 | 58 | 236 | 1 |
2002 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | S.F. | 96 | 25 | 121 | 1 |
2002 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | Jac. | 84 | 32 | 116 | 0 |
2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | at Oak. | 52 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
2003 | Clinton Portis, Den. | Clev. | 139 | 6 | 145 | 2 |
2004 | • T.J. Duckett, Atl. | Car. | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP |
2004 | • Derrick Blaylock, K.C. | Ind. | 18 | 19 | 37 | 0 |
2004 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | Ind. | 143 | 82 | 225 | 3 |
2004 | • Willis McGahee, Buff. | at Mia. | 91 | 4 | 95 | 0 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | at N.E. | 134 | 34 | 168 | 2 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | at Wash. | 98 | 4 | 102 | 1 |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | Dall. | 61 | 0 | 61 | 0 |
2006 | • Reggie Bush, N.O. | at Dall. | 37 | 125 | 162 | 1 |
2006 | • Joseph Addai, Ind. | at Ten. | 56 | 11 | 67 | 0 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, STL | none | --- | --- | --- | --- |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | at St.L. | 172 | 0 | 172 | 1 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | Oak. | 109 | 5 | 114 | 2 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | at Den. | 105 | 74 | 179 | 4 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | at K.C. | 66 | 72 | 138 | 1 |
2007 | • Jamal Lewis, Clev. | at Pitt. | 35 | 8 | 43 | 0 |
2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | Hou. | 90 | 1 | 91 | 0 |
2008 | • Ronnie Brown, Mia. | S.D. | 125 | 8 | 133 | 1 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | T.B. | 186 | 6 | 192 | 2 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | at N.O. | 178 | 0 | 178 | 0 |
2008 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. | at NYG | 131 | 72 | 203 | 2 |
2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | at S.D. | 120 | 0 | 120 | 0 |
2010 | • Darren McFadden, Oak. | Sea. | 111 | 24 | 135 | 0 |
2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | at Atl. | 112 | 1 | 113 | 0 |
2012 | • Doug Martin, T.B. | S.D. | 68 | 51 | 119 | 0 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | Ind. | 106 | 38 | 144 | 1 |
2014 | • Jonas Gray, N.E. | Det. | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP |
2014 | Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | at K.C. | 124 | 1 | 125 | 0 |
2015 | • Danny Woodhead, S.D. | at Oak. | 55 | 53 | 108 | 0 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | at Tenn. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
—Ian Allan