Kansas City has traded Alex Smith to Washington, sparing us another month of speculating whether Kirk Cousins would return to that franchise. He won't. The question is where he will end up, since -- given the state of quarterbacking in today's NFL -- he will be the most hotly sought-after free-agent quarterback in years. I'm going to make things easy on everyone and tell you where he's going to sign in the first few days of free agency.
To begin, I'll tell you where he definitely won't sign. These are the 15 teams that already have healthy franchise quarterbacks in place and under contract for next year. Alphabetically, those teams that definitely won't sign Cousins are Atlanta, Carolina, Dallas, Detroit, Green Bay, LA Chargers, LA Rams, New England, Oakland, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Tennessee and of course Washington.
Now we're down to 17 possible suitors, and we can whittle that down further with some common sense. Kansas City believes in Patrick Mahomes, or it wouldn't have traded Smith. San Francisco believes in Jimmy Garoppolo; it wouldn't have given up an early second-round pick to then let the kid walk a couple of months later. Houston has no reason to think Deshaun Watson won't return healthy from his knee injury and be a franchise passer going forward. Indianapolis is saying good things about Andrew Luck and has reason to believe he'll return. And New Orleans is very likely to bring back Drew Brees, removing itself from the Cousins market.
That brings us down to a much more manageable 12 teams who may be suitors for Cousins. Time to start whittling them down.
Since Cousins will have plenty of options, what on earth could compel him to pick Cleveland? You can say he'll go to the team that offers the most money, but it's not like there won't be a team or two willing to offer nearly as much as the Browns, even if Cleveland vows to outbid everyone. Can we agree that even if Cousins is swimming in dollar signs he'll be willing to accept the 2nd-most money from a team that didn't go 1-31 the last two years? I think so.
Chicago might be a little nervous about Mitchell Trubisky, who showed little if anything in his rookie season. But they're not going to give up on the No. 2 overall pick in the draft this soon; it's ludicrous.
The N.Y. Giants could consider cutting ties with Eli Manning and going after Cousins. But I doubt it. They seem convincing in contending that Manning has another good year or two in him. Given the team's horrible line and other problems, can they really think that Cousins is so good -- so much better than Manning -- that he'll come in and make them a quick contender? Far more likely they draft a quarterback at No. 2 overall and develop him over the next season or two before kicking Manning out the door.
Minnesota has three veteran quarterbacks who have started and won games for them to consider. Are they really going to dump Bradford, Keenum and Bridgewater to throw a boatload (no pun intended) of money at Cousins? I don't see it.
Baltimore is intriguing in part because Cousins wouldn't have to travel very far and could keep going to his favorite video store and coffee shops, perhaps. Joe Flacco hasn't played well in recent years. But he is under contract for the next several seasons and there'd probably be a lot of dead money if they tried to get out of that contract. I don't think it will happen. Similarly, Cincinnati is contractually tied to Andy Dalton, they've never been the "write-a-blank-check-to-a-free-agent" kind of franchise, and I don't even know that Cousins is dramatically better than Dalton anyway. Better, sure, but it's not a Bengals move.
Two Florida teams, Jacksonville and Miami, are in similar situations. They've got young and talented dual-threat quarterbacks, former t0p-1o picks, under contract. Blake Bortles just took the Jaguars to the AFC Championship Game. Yes, he was kind of along for the ride, but he had a nice postseason. Some disagree, but I think he'll be their quarterback next season at a minimum. Ryan Tannehill is less certain, although he showed enough to get a big contract from them not so long ago. I think he gets another shot too. Unless the organization believes Cousins is the next Drew Brees, who Miami foolishly allowed to get away to New Orleans some years back, I don't believe they'll go after Cousins. Although they're in my top 5.
Buffalo can't be ruled out. They dearly need a quarterback. But they've proven to be a cheap and generally stupid franchise in recent years. They'll probably make an effort, but they're a lot more likely to throw money at whichever quarterback the Vikings don't keep.
The N.Y. Jets will very likely be interested in Cousins. They should be. Probably one of the three most likely landing spots. But will Cousins view them as so much more appealing than Cleveland? It's not a talent-laden roster, it's a tough New York market, and they're the Jets. I'm saying no.
We're down to just two teams, Arizona and Denver. Both desperately need a quarterback -- have essentially nothing at the position. (Literally nothing in Arizona.) Both have some defensive talent, and some quality offensive pieces, too. If you're Cousins, you have to think if you go to either of these teams, you have a chance to win right away.
The Cardinals have some appeal. New coaching staff, maybe the game's best running back, a Hall of Fame wide receiver likely to return for one more year. And Arizona is sunny and warm. They're going to push hard for Cousins.
But the Broncos have John Elway, the same Hall of Fame quarterback who wined and dined Peyton Manning in a similar situation just a few years back. Two Super Bowl appearances and one win later, that was a (at the time) surprising move that worked out well for all involved.
It's going to happen again. Welcome to the Denver Broncos, Kirk Cousins.