For years, my favorite column on this site, bar none, is when Ian Allan tells which Super Bowl prop bets he likes. He hasn't written one this year, perhaps because he doesn't like enough of them. It's the day of the Super Bowl, so I'm going to give it a stab myself.
First off, I'm staying well away from totally random ones (who wins the coin toss) and ones involving other sports going on today like golf and basketball. I don't pay enough attention to the NBA to know how many points or rebounds such and such player will get. I'm sticking mostly to NFL bets that we can actually predict based on NFL watching, although I do like a couple of the music and broadcast-related ones.
Please do not bet the mortgage on these recommendations. If I were really good at wagering, I'd be making a living at it instead of writing columns.
(There's a prop bet for "will a player leave the game and not return due to concussion symptoms." What the hell?)
Eagles plus 4.5 points. I think the Eagles will cover. I think they might win the game outright. All of New England's previous Super Bowls in the Brady-Belichick era have been close; 3-4 points or last year's overtime game, and another overtime isn't likely.
Tom Brady wins MVP award. Although I've picked the Eagles to spring the upset, I'm not betting it; I think I've got some wishful thinking going on. The Patriots are favored, and the quarterback wins the award far more often that not. Even when he probably shouldn't. If you think the Eagles will win, go with Foles.
Longest touchdown scored under 42.5 yards. This one seems like money in the bank. Of New England's 49 touchdowns scored during the season, only 4 (8 percent) were longer than 42 yards. They also allowed only 3 TDs longer than 40 yards (of 33, so 9 percent), and you can probably remember all of them: two by Kansas City way back in Week 1, and the long Melvin Gordon run in the Chargers game. So that's 1 TD of more than 40 yards against New England since Week 1.
Total Patriots/Eagles to record rushing attempt (under 5.5). This one confuses me a little. The Patriots are only going to give the ball to three different running backs (Lewis, Burkhead, White). Tom Brady will have at least one carry, even if it's a final snap kneel down. As long as only one rather than two receivers have a rushing attempt, you win. Maybe Cooks or Amendola gets a carry, but both? Unlikely. New England also has James Develin, but he didn't carry it all season. Brandon Bolden won't with Burkhead healthy. Eagles are similar: three running backs and a quarterback will account for four, and then maybe one wide receiver gets a carry or two. But two are unlikely.
Total passing yards Tom Brady (over 285.5). I think Brady is going to throw for at least 290. I also like the overs for Brady in attempts (37.5) and completions (25.5). I don't think New England will bother much running the ball in this game.
Total passing yards Nick Foles (over 235.5). This is a tougher one as I think the Eagles will try to work the run. But if the Eagles are either losing, or moving the ball well on offense, both of which should be possible against New England's defense, Foles should make it up to 240 without much trouble.
Dion Lewis rushing yards (under 55.5). I'm not sure the Patriots as a team will rush for even 75 yards in this game. Considering they've got a healthy Rex Burkhead and James White out there, I'm very comfortable betting the under with Lewis.
LeGarrette Blount rushing yards (over 29.5). Blount will play second banana to Jay Ajayi, to be sure, but 30 rushing yards against his former team looks like a good bet to me.
Length of National Anthem (Pink) under 120 seconds. This one is not tricky, Pink won't drag it out.
Justin Timberlake first song during halftime show: Rock Your Body. OK I'm not actually betting this one. But if I were, it'd be Rock Your Body. He'll do "Can't Stop the Feeling," but won't open with it. I'll make "Suit and Tie" my runnerup choice.
Will Janet Jackson make a halftime show appearance: Yes. She has to, right? She just has to.
Will any member of NSYNC make a halftime show appearance: Yes. Again, they just have to take advantage of this opportunity.
How many commercials will Peyton Manning appear in during the broadcast: under 2.5. I can't see three Peyton commercials. Two, sure.
How many times will Tom Brady's age be mentioned during the broadcast: over 1.5. Duh.
Good luck to all of you.