Later this month, Wyoming's Josh Allen will be one of the first quarterbacks drafted; maybe the first one, according to the most recent media reports. With each of the top quarterbacks, there's usually a couple of pro and con bulletpoints being tossed around. With Allen, it's his completion percentage when tossing around that's a concern.
Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes at Wyoming last season. That's better than only three of the quarterbacks drafted in the first round this century. Two of the ones who were worse quickly flamed out of the NFL, Jake Locker and Kyle Boller. The third, Michael Vick, had an up-and-down career; fair to say it was his difference-making ability as a runner that drove much of his NFL success.
| COMPLETION PERCENTAGE, FINAL YEAR OF COLLEGE, 1ST-RD QBS (2000-) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2012 | 22 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 408 | 564 | 72.3 | 4727 | 37 | 13 |
| 2004 | 4 | Philip Rivers, NYG | 348 | 483 | 72.0 | 4491 | 34 | 7 |
| 2012 | 2 | Robert Griffin III, Wash. | 291 | 406 | 71.7 | 4293 | 37 | 6 |
| 2012 | 1 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 288 | 404 | 71.3 | 3517 | 37 | 10 |
| 2014 | 32 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 303 | 427 | 71.0 | 3970 | 31 | 4 |
| 2018 | ? | Baker Mayfield, ? | 285 | 404 | 70.5 | 4627 | 43 | 6 |
| 2014 | 22 | Johnny Manziel, Clev. | 300 | 429 | 69.9 | 4114 | 37 | 13 |
| 2005 | 25 | Jason Campbell, Wash. | 188 | 270 | 69.6 | 2700 | 20 | 7 |
| 2004 | 11 | Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 342 | 495 | 69.1 | 4486 | 37 | 10 |
| 2015 | 2 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 304 | 445 | 68.3 | 4454 | 42 | 4 |
| 2017 | 2 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 304 | 447 | 68.0 | 3748 | 30 | 6 |
| 2013 | 16 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 263 | 387 | 68.0 | 3397 | 23 | 10 |
| 2007 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell, Oak. | 232 | 342 | 67.8 | 3129 | 28 | 8 |
| 2010 | 25 | Tim Tebow, Den. | 213 | 314 | 67.8 | 2895 | 21 | 5 |
| 2014 | 3 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 259 | 382 | 67.8 | 3581 | 25 | 9 |
| 2005 | 1 | Alex Smith, S.F. | 214 | 317 | 67.5 | 2952 | 32 | 4 |
| 2000 | 18 | Chad Pennington, NYJ | 292 | 433 | 67.4 | 4006 | 38 | 12 |
| 2003 | 7 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | 331 | 491 | 67.4 | 4268 | 30 | 10 |
| 2017 | 12 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 388 | 579 | 67.0 | 4593 | 41 | 17 |
| 2016 | 26 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 296 | 443 | 66.8 | 3776 | 28 | 4 |
| 2005 | 24 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 209 | 316 | 66.1 | 2566 | 24 | 8 |
| 2011 | 1 | Cam Newton, Car. | 185 | 280 | 66.1 | 2854 | 30 | 7 |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | 241 | 366 | 65.8 | 3207 | 34 | 10 |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. | 283 | 431 | 65.7 | 3815 | 28 | 8 |
| 2017 | 10 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 388 | 591 | 65.7 | 5052 | 41 | 10 |
| 2015 | 1 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 305 | 467 | 65.3 | 3907 | 25 | 18 |
| 2006 | 3 | Vince Young, Tenn. | 212 | 325 | 65.2 | 3036 | 26 | 10 |
| 2002 | 1 | David Carr, Hou. | 308 | 476 | 64.7 | 4299 | 42 | 7 |
| 2016 | 1 | Jared Goff, LAR | 341 | 529 | 64.5 | 4719 | 43 | 13 |
| 2008 | 18 | Joe Flacco, Balt. | 331 | 521 | 63.5 | 4263 | 23 | 5 |
| 2011 | 10 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 301 | 475 | 63.4 | 3186 | 16 | 9 |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 309 | 489 | 63.2 | 3942 | 33 | 10 |
| 2018 | ? | Sam Darnold, ? | 303 | 480 | 63.1 | 4143 | 26 | 13 |
| 2018 | ? | Josh Rosen, ? | 283 | 452 | 62.6 | 3756 | 26 | 10 |
| 2016 | 2 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 130 | 208 | 62.5 | 1651 | 17 | 4 |
| 2004 | 1 | Eli Manning, S.D. | 275 | 441 | 62.4 | 3600 | 29 | 10 |
| 2007 | 22 | Brady Quinn, Clev. | 289 | 467 | 61.9 | 3426 | 37 | 7 |
| 2012 | 8 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 327 | 531 | 61.6 | 3744 | 29 | 15 |
| 2011 | 12 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 184 | 299 | 61.5 | 2044 | 20 | 8 |
| 2009 | 1 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 235 | 383 | 61.4 | 3459 | 25 | 10 |
| 2004 | 22 | J.P. Losman, Buff. | 251 | 422 | 59.5 | 3077 | 33 | 14 |
| 2008 | 3 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 388 | 654 | 59.3 | 4507 | 31 | 19 |
| 2006 | 11 | Jay Cutler, Den. | 273 | 462 | 59.1 | 3073 | 21 | 9 |
| 2018 | ? | Lamar Jackson, ? | 254 | 430 | 59.1 | 3660 | 27 | 10 |
| 2009 | 17 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | 224 | 382 | 58.6 | 2945 | 20 | 8 |
| 2002 | 3 | Joey Harrington, Det. | 186 | 322 | 57.8 | 2415 | 23 | 5 |
| 2003 | 22 | Rex Grossman, Chi. | 287 | 503 | 57.1 | 3402 | 22 | 17 |
| 2002 | 32 | Patrick Ramsey, Wash. | 256 | 449 | 57.0 | 2935 | 22 | 13 |
| 2010 | 1 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | 39 | 69 | 56.5 | 562 | 2 | 0 |
| 2018 | ? | Josh Allen, ? | 152 | 270 | 56.3 | 1812 | 16 | 6 |
| 2011 | 8 | Jake Locker, Tenn. | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 17 | 9 |
| 2001 | 1 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 87 | 161 | 54.0 | 1234 | 8 | 6 |
| 2003 | 19 | Kyle Boller, Balt. | 225 | 421 | 53.4 | 2815 | 28 | 10 |
In the table, this year's projected first-round quarterbacks are in bold. By this measuring stick, Baker Mayfield is the best bet. Speaking of Mayfield, Ian ran the item recently on Yards Per Completion, which showed Mayfield at the top among first-rounders over the past decade. Allen also showed up near the bottom of that list.
On Allen's behalf, some other sub-60 percent passers have gone on to be pretty successful: Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Sam Bradford (injuries aside). And some of the guys near the top have either flopped (Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel) or are trending that way (Teddy Bridgewater).
With all of the measurable statistics with these incoming quarterbacks -- height, completion percentage, yards per completion -- you can find successes and flops at both ends of the spectrum. If somebody flops for whatever reason, that flaw will no doubt be cited as the reason why (whether it actually was or not).
For me the biggest concern is the structure in place where a guy is drafted. Will he get good coaching? Will the team bring him along the right way, and will he have good talent around him? I try not to get too high or low on a quarterback's future until I see where he ends up.
--Andy Richardson