A Southern Cal quarterback and a Penn State running back chosen in the top 10. Watching the draft unfold, it was hard not to get a sense of déjà vu. What are the odds of at least one of these two not meeting expectations?
The NFL draft, after all, is a crapshoot. Far more of these guys never come close to meeting expectations than to developing into perennial Pro Bowlers. It’s fun to trot them out, introducing potential new stars. But it’s a tough, competitive business.
And with Southern Cal quarterbacks and Penn State running backs, those have been two of the positions where the miss rates have been the highest.
There have been four other USC quarterbacks chosen in the first round. Carson Palmer was good, but the other three missed badly.
| SOUTHERN CAL QUARTERBACKS CHOSEN IN FIRST ROUND | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player |
| 1991 | 24 | Todd Marinovich, Rdrs. |
| 2003 | 1 | Carson Palmer, Cin. |
| 2006 | 10 | Matt Leinart, Ariz. |
| 2009 | 5 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ |
| 2018 | 3 | Sam Darnold, NYJ |
Similarly with the Penn State running backs, four of the last five were misses. Larry Johnson had a brief burst of superior production with Kansas City, but it just never happened for Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas and D.J. Dozier. Ki-Jana Carter also missed, though in his case he never really got a chance to get going (tearing up his knee in the preseason of his rookie year).
The hit rate for Penn State running backs gets better further back. Franco Harris is a Hall of Famer. Curt Warner had a very good career in Seattle and might have been much more highly regarded if not for a knee injury of his own.
| PENN STATE RUNNING BACKS CHOSEN IN FIRST ROUND | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player |
| 1972 | 13 | Franco Harris, Pitt. |
| 1974 | 11 | John Cappelletti, Rams |
| 1981 | 28 | Booker Moore, Buff. |
| 1983 | 3 | Curt Warner, Sea. |
| 1987 | 14 | D.J. Dozier, Minn. |
| 1990 | 2 | Blair Thomas, NYJ |
| 1995 | 1 | Ki-Jana Carter, Cin. |
| 1998 | 5 | Curtis Enis, Chi. |
| 2003 | 27 | Larry Johnson, K.C. |
| 2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG |
None of these guys, of course, have anything in common with Darnold and Barkley, other than having played at the same school. But if you back up the clock and ignore how things played out, it might be hard for you to explain why Barkley and Darnold are better pro prospects than a lot of these misses who came before them.
I hope I’m wrong, but these guys will be beating the odds if we don’t look back in five years and consider at least one of them to be a blown selection.
—Ian Allan