The Packers used three late-round picks on wide receivers in the draft. I don’t know if any of them will pan out, but I understand the idea – it’s a position of need for them.
I like the saturation bombing strategy. Green Bay used it last year at tailback, drafting Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones and Devante Mays, and they ended up getting useful production out of two of them.
This year they’re looking a wide receiver. They selected J’Mon Moore in the fourth round, Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the fifth and Equanimeous St. Brown in the sixth. Those were all compensatory picks, so it’s as if they were drafted a round later (somewhere along the line the NFL drafted messing with the labeling of draft picks, so what’s a fifth-round pick today used to be a sixth-rounder.).
Anyway, they’re late-round choices, so the odds of hitting on any of those picks isn’t great. Of the last 75 wide receivers chosen between picks 130 and 200, only 8 became players of any note. But it does happen from time to time – Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill and Marvin Jones were all picked in that range.
I understand the casting of the net because Green Bay needs to add some zip to its receiving corps. Randall Cobb used to be fast and explosive (with a couple of kick return touchdowns early in his career) but he’s just a chain-moving slot receiver nowadays. He’s averaged 10.0 yards per catch over the last two years, last among the 46 wide receivers with at least 100 catches.
Davante Adams is a good, emerging, but he’s not scaring defenses with deep speed. He’s still looking for his first 1,000-yard season. They signed tight end Jimmy Graham, but he’s also more of a possession target.
A few years back, Jordy Nelson was ripping up secondaries deep, with 7 touchdowns from 40-plus yards. But he got old.
So Aaron Rodgers, great as he is, hasn’t been explosive. Over the last three years, he’s been a bottom-10 quarterback in terms of yards per completion (that’s in comparison with other quarterbacks starting at least half the time). He’s not connecting on many big throws downfield.
In the 2014 season (Nelson’s big year) Green Bay’s wide receivers averaged 14.1 yards per catch – 4th-best in the league. They have ranked 23rd, 26th and last in that category the last three years.
I can’t promise any of these three rookies will help much this year. More likely, one of their other young receivers will play a lot more in three-receiver sets – Geronimo Allison (my pick) or Trevor Davis. But I understand the reasoning.
| WIDE RECEIVERS: YARDS PER CATCH 2017 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| LA Chargers | 192 | 2792 | 14.54 | 14 |
| Indianapolis | 125 | 1814 | 14.51 | 7 |
| Detroit | 214 | 3024 | 14.13 | 18 |
| San Francisco | 182 | 2530 | 13.90 | 7 |
| Pittsburgh | 238 | 3304 | 13.88 | 22 |
| Kansas City | 165 | 2285 | 13.85 | 12 |
| New England | 174 | 2397 | 13.78 | 14 |
| Seattle | 177 | 2433 | 13.75 | 16 |
| Jacksonville | 177 | 2426 | 13.71 | 12 |
| Houston | 179 | 2409 | 13.46 | 23 |
| Cleveland | 134 | 1801 | 13.44 | 7 |
| Atlanta | 214 | 2848 | 13.31 | 13 |
| Tampa Bay | 226 | 2985 | 13.21 | 11 |
| New Orleans | 198 | 2604 | 13.15 | 13 |
| NY Jets | 174 | 2247 | 12.91 | 13 |
| LA Rams | 205 | 2642 | 12.89 | 19 |
| Arizona | 198 | 2541 | 12.83 | 15 |
| Buffalo | 115 | 1474 | 12.82 | 9 |
| Carolina | 150 | 1922 | 12.81 | 13 |
| Minnesota | 203 | 2601 | 12.81 | 14 |
| Philadelphia | 178 | 2269 | 12.75 | 20 |
| Washington | 176 | 2242 | 12.74 | 15 |
| Cincinnati | 167 | 2094 | 12.54 | 15 |
| Tennessee | 159 | 1977 | 12.43 | 6 |
| Chicago | 146 | 1809 | 12.39 | 4 |
| Oakland | 189 | 2280 | 12.06 | 19 |
| Baltimore | 146 | 1734 | 11.88 | 11 |
| Denver | 195 | 2312 | 11.86 | 12 |
| NY Giants | 172 | 2023 | 11.76 | 11 |
| Dallas | 183 | 2111 | 11.54 | 13 |
| Miami | 247 | 2776 | 11.24 | 18 |
| Green Bay | 227 | 2396 | 10.56 | 20 |
—Ian Allan