Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: Will Alex Collins fumble his way out of the starting job in Baltimore? Is Fantasy Index missing the boat on Deshaun Watson? And is Patrick Mahomes this year's breakout quarterback?
Question 1
Read the Baltimore Ravens team breakdown and agree 100% with the red flags about Alex Collins (he also had a fumbling problem at Arkansas too). Only difference is that I viewed that as a sell high situation in my dynasty league and traded him but you have him ranked 11th best RB. Concerned you may be too bullish on Collins? You have him ranked higher than your peers.
Cody Hager (Portland, OR)
That’s a great point. Collins fumbled 17 times in three years at Arkansas (with 9 lost). And his ball security hasn’t been good in the pros. He’s fumbled 6 times in 279 touches. That’s a 2.1 percent fumble rate, 3rd-worst among the 56 running backs with at least 200 touches over the last two years. He also caught only 64 percent of the passes thrown his way last year, 3rd-worst among running backs with at least 30 targets. So looks to me like a back who is probably better used as part of a committee. They’ve got Javorius Allen, who’s probably better as a pass catcher and in protection, and he’s been used some in goal-line situations. He’ll probably have a role. And I will be very interested to see what Kenneth Dixon looks like in the preseason. Dixon was on the verge of winning their starting job as a rookie before suffering a knee injury that sidelined him for the first month of that season. Dixon came back last year and suffered another knee injury, sidelining him for the entire season, but a story went by a few weeks back suggesting he was looking good in the offseason workouts. The story suggested that Collins and Dixon appeared to be in line to be the team’s main runners. I’m aware that Collins isn’t ranked as favorably on other people’s boards. I’ll be watching that situation carefully in the preseason, and I’ll be sure to move Collins down if anything looks out of whack.
Question 2
Thanks for the magazine! Receiving it is always a great day. That said I was very stunned to see where Deshaun Watson is ranked. You have him as the #18 QB. I know they legalized weed in Washington state a couple of years ago but I would not suspect you as a partaker of the stuff! I obviously very much value your opinion but my other 3 PAID sources all have him in their early top 10. Your main reasoning is the ACL injury and secondly defenses abilities to adjust to mobile QBs and you list 3 examples, Vince Young, Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III, really those 3 QBs? I mean I do see the point as those three did have a bit of early success but they are not in this guy's league or even close IMO. I think this will come back to haunt you, or either you will have him in top 5 by early August. Has he moved up your board any since you sent the mag to the publisher?
Jay Harding (Oregon City, OR)
We have the Experts Poll in the magazine, and 90 percent of those guys have Watson in their top 6. So it does seem I’m in the minority on this. But the man is coming off a knee injury. Is he going to be healthy for the opener? Probably. And can he stay healthy for 16 games? Durability is part of the game, so I think the correct move is to slot Watson outside the top 15, along with the other high-risk guys who could be good (Wentz, Luck, Winston). There are a lot of quarterbacks who are almost as good who look like very safe choices to play in all 16 games, so I don’t understand the rush to put Watson ahead of the likes of Rivers, Stafford, Ryan, Cousins, Brees, Brady, Newton, etc. Sorry. Best I can offer is that while I’m cool on Watson and won’t be selecting him on any of my teams, I do have him with the 3rd-best per-game forecast of all quarterbacks. That is, if you want to set aside durability and assume everyone’s playing in all 16 games, he would be my No. 3 quarterback.
Question 3
You seem pretty high on Mahomes, and I like that Kansas City has a solid RB/WR corps. What do you think is a reasonable range of TDs for him this year? Does he throw for over 25?
MIKE HERNANDEZ (Yakima, WA)
I think Mahomes will be one of the first 15 quarterbacks chosen in most drafts. He’s got the dynamic arm, and Andy Reid has a strong track record of developing quarterbacks. If we wind the clock back to 1999 and put Tim Couch or Akili Smith on the Eagles, with Donovan McNabb going to one of the Ohio teams, I think it’s fair to wonder if one of those forgotten quarterbacks would have had the best career. I think Mahomes can do it, and he’ll also finish with above-average rushing production. He ran for 10 and 12 touchdowns his last two years at Texas Tech.
Question 4
Tight end dynasty league question. I have Jack Doyle and did not expect them to sign Ebron. Available tight ends include Burton, Njoku, Kittle, McDonald, Butt and all rookies. Please rank in order for potential scoring. I can also simply keep Doyle.
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I’d go with Trey Burton. They gave him a big contract, and I think he’s going to be huge part of their offense. Matt Nagy is a Andy Reid disciple, and they’re going to be running that same kind of offense – the hope is that Burton can be another Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz. Colts should also use their tight ends a lot, but I’m not sure which one of the two will finish with better receiving numbers. You list four other tight ends, and I don’t think any of them are even in the conversation.
Question 5
I’m in a 2QB dynasty league and wouldn’t mind moving on from Drew Brees in order to get younger at the position. Given his age and productivity, what other QBs do you think would be a fair trade (or at least in the same ballpark) given this dynasty format?
Zach Nizolek (Kansas City, MO)
Brees is 39. I don’t know if you’re going to be able to find anyone willing to make a deal. He didn’t put up great numbers last year. But it never hurts to ask. On my dynasty board, I’ve got four quarterbacks ranked higher than him who are under 25 years old – Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Marcus Mariota. Other quarterbacks I like more than Brees for dynasty purposes include Derek Carr, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck and Matt Ryan.
Question 6
I received my magazine last Friday and it still gave me the same excitement it always has. I picked up the 1993 edition in a drugstore, but have received every year since in the mail (except the one year it was download only, with the labor stoppage in 2011). The thing I like the most is the format hasn't changed. Everything is laid out the same. Same headers, etc. It feels like talking with an old friend. Also kudos to you for standing by your choice to not list Kansas City and Washington's teams nicknames. What probably got me hooked was that I wrote a letter and it was posted in the 1994 issue. I also received a thank you letter in which I was told to tell my brother Roger (Craig) hello. Thank you for keeping this feeling alive for all of us!
Mike Craig (Kokomo, IN)
I appreciate the nice words, and thanks for sticking with us for a quarter of a century. That includes giving us a mulligan for putting Tatum Bell on the cover in 2005. I’ve gotten use to seeing your name go by from time to time. I hope to hear from you again as we gear up for another season.