Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition: When is the right time to pull the trigger on a quarterback? Who should be the No. 2 pick overall in a PPR league. Sifting through the lower-profile kickers. And the top-5 rushing and passing offenses for 2018.
Question 1
Our 10-team league tends to draft QBs early. I rarely take one before roun 5 or 6. Is there an obvious break between the top two tiers, where I might try to get the last top QB, or should I just follow the draft board?
Scott Kopischke (Menomonee Falls, WI)
I think it’s a great year to go even later on a quarterback. If you were to let other teams select 12-14 quarterbacks, then grab the best remaining two on your board, I believe you’d be just fine. That would be my ballpark plan going in. Every draft is different, but if you follow that strategy, I believe you’ll end up with two quarterbacks along the lines of Kirk Cousins, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith or Jared Goff. I think you can live with such a pair (and with this being a 10-team league, you might be able to even carry three of those guys).
Question 2
I have the second pick in a draft and have been debating hard between five players. I like Kamara, Hunt, Zeke, Barkley and Bell. Right now I am leaning toward Hunt. Am I crazy for thinking this? My gut says stay away from Bell and I think Zeke might be adversely effected by the lack of good WRs on Dallas. I have a hunch Hunt might end up being the Fantasy MVP this year. Watkins, Hill, and Kelce will keep them safeties out of the box. Who would you take at that spot? Is Barkley a possibility? I love Saquon's matchups weeks 14-16 when the Big Money is won.
David Kennedy (Steamburg, NY)
Barkley, I think, can be removed from consideration. He’s a great looking prospect, but we’re talking the No. 2 pick in the draft. Too early, I think, to put him up there with the best of the best. And I understand the leeriness of Bell. I don’t expect he’ll show up until September, so he could start the season slowly. That’s what happened last year, when he averaged 60 rushing and 19 receiving yards in his first three games, with 1 TD. He averaged 3.5 yards per attempt in those games. And Bell hasn’t been durable; he’s missed time with injuries in four of his five seasons in the pros. For me, I think it’s Ezekiel Elliott. He’s really good, and he’s running behind that awesome offensive line. He’s averaged 105 rushing and 25 receiving yards in his 25 games as a pro, with 25 TDs. And Elliott has been very durable. He never had any injury issues at Ohio State, and he hasn’t even appeared on the injury report in two years in the pros. I’m pretty firm on Elliott at No. 2. I am a fan of Kareem Hunt; I’m in the minority that has him higher than David Johnson. But I can’t get him higher than 3rd. (If it’s PPR scoring, then I think I’ll go Kamara over Hunt).
Question 3
I am in need of a kicker with limited choices. I can draft a kicker from Chicago, Miami, Washington, Tampa Bay and Seattle. Further muddying things, I can draft a kicker from the Chargers and Vikings (who I believe will have better offenses). Problem here is these teams have kickers competing: Sturgis vs. Aguayo and Forbath vs. Carlson. Which kicker will win the above battles? Further I get bonus points for 50-plus yard field goals. Your final order of selection is?
HOWIE FISHMAN (Hermosa Beach, CA)
I think the Vikings would like for Daniel Carlson to be their kicker; that was the intention when they selected him in the fifth round. But I’m not confident it will happen. I don’t know that he’s good enough. Carlson converted 82 percent of his field goals his final three years at Auburn. Kai Forbath has connected on 84 percent of his field goals the last three years. I consider that to be a see-what-happens-at-camp situation; I would remove them from consideration. Similarly, let’s toss Miami and Seattle; neither one of those teams is locked in on a kicker, and I’ve not confident those offenses will be good enough anyway. So I think you’re left with Cody Parkey, Dustin Hopkins, Chandler Catanzaro and Caleb Sturgis. I would make Parkey 4th of that group. The Bears are doing some nice things, but I’m not sure they’re quite there yet. The others all look fine – top-15 type kickers for 2018, I think. The Bucs have been plagued by poor kicking for years; they’ve got the worst accuracy rate on field goals over the last three years. But Catanzaro didn’t attempt any of those kicks. Tampa Bay is paying him as if it’s confident he’ll be good – only 10 kickers are making more per year. Hopkins could be busy. Two years ago Washington attempted a league-high 42 field goals. Now Alex Smith is at the helm, and he contributed to Kansas City attempting a league-high 45 field goals last year. Smith has long been a kicker-friendly quarterback – he doesn’t turn the ball over and seems more content than other quarterbacks to settle for field goals. With Smith at quarterback, Kansas City has ranked 7th, 6th and 2nd in kicking points the last three years. I don’t consider Aguayo to be a big threat to win a roster spot in Los Angeles. Sturgis has hit an above-average 85 percent of his field goals over the last three years. The Chargers apparently have some confidence in him because they signed him to a contract including $1 million in guaranteed money. Aguayo’s deal has no guaranteed money. So I think you’re looking any one of those three (and I don’t see 50-yard field goals as a significant part of the equation).
Question 4
Which teams do you see being the top five offenses this year?
John Wozniak (Lackawanna, NY)
Using standard scoring (6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards) I have the Cowboys, Jaguars, Patriots, Saints and Panthers as the top 5 rushing teams. I have the Packers, Patriots, Steelers, Saints and Chargers as the top 5 passing teams. On my projection model, I’ve got five offenses finishing the season with more than 43 touchdowns: Packers (48.2), Patriots (47.5), Saints (46.4), Rams (45.9) and Steelers (43.4).
Question 5
Do you feel that you ever get hung up on a player who you can’t let go of? I am very curious to see what you write, and how you rate, Crowell this year. He is a player you have been waiting on who doesn’t seem to get where you want him to go. DeSean Jackson is another, I bring this up as a topic for fantasy because I see it all the time and am guilty of it myself.
Yaesha Newman ()
Crowell is good. I like the way he runs – I like the combination of power and speed. Only three running backs have had 50-yard runs in each of the last three years, and he’s one of them (along with Mark Ingram and DeMarco Murray). And I like Crowell’s durability; four years into his career, he hasn’t missed a game. The Jets signed him for $12 million over three years. That’s $4 million per year, and I like that contract more than any of the three running backs who signed larger contracts in the spring – Jerick McKinnon ($7.5 million), Carlos Hyde ($5.1) and Dion Lewis ($5.0). I’m not confident that Crowell will crush it statistically; the Jets are a lesser team and have a host of other backs (Powell, Rawls, McGuire), but a nice signing for them. And I believe Crowell will be their top guy. … I’m not a big fan of DeSean Jackson. He’s got some speed, and I suppose he’ll catch a few long touchdowns. But I just don’t envision him being used enough. Mike Evans is the go-to guy there. They’ve got a pair of tight ends who’ll be involved (Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard). Adam Humphries is an above-average slot receiver. And they’ve got a young up-and-coming receiver, Chris Godwin, who played really well in the final two weeks last year. They’re paying Jackson (who’s 31) $35 million for three years, but it seems like they would be better if they put Godwin in that spot and used that money on other players.