Somebody asked last week about strength of schedule for defenses, and I wanted to hit that while I had a minute. It’s one way to potential think about adding or subtracting defenses from your fantasy roster.
On this one, I took the average interceptions and sacks that have been given up by teams so far. Then I looked at the next seven games for each team, totaling up ballpark estimates for sacks and interceptions for each defense. (I left out fumbles and defensive touchdowns, because I think there’s enough luck in those categories that it might skew our findings).
For sacks, Washington, San Francisco, Indianapolis and the Jets have the friendliest schedules. If their next seven opponents play like they have so far (and these teams were to play in an average way) they should finish with 20-plus sacks in those seven games.
Using these scheduling numbers, I’m comfortable saying the Raiders will rank last in sacks. They’ve had a lousy pass rush so far, and the also have the most sack-averse schedule over the next seven weeks. More importantly, Baltimore has the 2nd-worst sack schedule. The Ravens just piled up 11 sacks and Marcus Mariota, but the schedule indicates it will be tough for Baltimore to put up top-10 pass rush numbers in the second half of the season.
For interceptions, the Jets, Panthers and Bills have the most friendly schedules (next seven games), while the Cowboys, Rams and Eagles have the worst.
And if we combine the sacks and interceptions in one table (giving 1 point for sacks and 2 for interceptions), the Jets, 49ers, Colts and Panthers project to have the most fantasy friendly schedules. Four of the five worst schedules belong to defenses that are likely owned in most fantasy leagues – Cowboys, Rams, Vikings, Eagles.
| DEFENSIVE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (next 7 games) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Int | Sacks | Points |
| NY Jets | 8.3 | 20.0 | 36.6 |
| San Francisco | 7.6 | 20.2 | 35.5 |
| Indianapolis | 7.3 | 20.3 | 34.9 |
| Carolina | 7.9 | 17.6 | 33.4 |
| Miami | 7.0 | 18.6 | 32.7 |
| Washington | 5.1 | 22.4 | 32.6 |
| New England | 6.8 | 19.0 | 32.5 |
| Houston | 7.0 | 18.0 | 32.1 |
| Tennessee | 7.0 | 18.0 | 32.0 |
| Denver | 6.7 | 18.1 | 31.5 |
| NY Giants | 6.1 | 19.3 | 31.5 |
| Chicago | 6.9 | 17.3 | 31.0 |
| Buffalo | 8.1 | 14.6 | 30.9 |
| Kansas City | 6.6 | 17.5 | 30.8 |
| LA Chargers | 7.4 | 15.8 | 30.6 |
| Pittsburgh | 6.6 | 17.2 | 30.4 |
| Cincinnati | 6.5 | 17.0 | 29.9 |
| Jacksonville | 6.5 | 16.5 | 29.5 |
| New Orleans | 5.3 | 18.4 | 28.9 |
| Baltimore | 7.0 | 14.5 | 28.5 |
| Arizona | 5.5 | 17.3 | 28.3 |
| Detroit | 5.8 | 16.8 | 28.3 |
| Atlanta | 4.1 | 19.5 | 27.6 |
| Green Bay | 5.4 | 16.7 | 27.5 |
| Cleveland | 6.1 | 15.3 | 27.5 |
| Oakland | 6.6 | 13.9 | 27.1 |
| Seattle | 5.0 | 16.7 | 26.7 |
| Philadelphia | 4.0 | 18.1 | 26.2 |
| Tampa Bay | 4.8 | 16.3 | 25.9 |
| Minnesota | 5.0 | 15.6 | 25.6 |
| LA Rams | 4.0 | 16.5 | 24.5 |
| Dallas | 3.2 | 17.4 | 23.8 |
—Ian Allan