If strength of schedule means anything, now might be a good time to be investing in Baltimore Ravens. That team’s schedule is about to get really easy. The previous team to call that city home, meanwhile, has the hardest schedule coming up.
I try to check in on schedules once per week. This time, I’m looking at the next six games for each team. That’s Weeks 9-14 for teams that have already had their byes, and Weeks 9-15 for teams that still have their bye coming up.
The Ravens project to play by far the league’s easiest schedule. Their next six are against teams that so far (on average) are allowing 3.4 touchdowns per game. Carolina is the only other team over 3. Arizona, Cleveland and the Chargers are just short of 3.
The Colts, meanwhile, project to play the hardest schedule. Their next six are against defenses that are currently allowing about 2 TDs per game. The Titans, Eagles and Lions also have difficult upcoming schedules.
NEXT SIX GAMES (offensive TDs) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Run | Pass | Total |
Baltimore | 1.07 | 2.31 | 3.38 |
Carolina | .94 | 2.18 | 3.12 |
Arizona | .95 | 2.03 | 2.98 |
Cleveland | .92 | 1.96 | 2.88 |
LA Chargers | .96 | 1.88 | 2.84 |
New Orleans | .85 | 1.93 | 2.78 |
Denver | .77 | 2.01 | 2.78 |
San Francisco | .88 | 1.85 | 2.74 |
Cincinnati | .95 | 1.78 | 2.73 |
Tampa Bay | .84 | 1.84 | 2.68 |
Green Bay | .87 | 1.77 | 2.64 |
Oakland | .88 | 1.76 | 2.63 |
Washington | .77 | 1.84 | 2.61 |
NY Giants | .63 | 1.91 | 2.55 |
Buffalo | .68 | 1.86 | 2.54 |
Kansas City | .97 | 1.57 | 2.54 |
New England | .71 | 1.82 | 2.53 |
Minnesota | .57 | 1.95 | 2.51 |
Miami | .73 | 1.77 | 2.49 |
Seattle | .69 | 1.80 | 2.49 |
Houston | .90 | 1.58 | 2.48 |
LA Rams | .67 | 1.81 | 2.48 |
Pittsburgh | .78 | 1.69 | 2.46 |
Atlanta | .90 | 1.56 | 2.46 |
Dallas | .76 | 1.70 | 2.46 |
Chicago | .74 | 1.71 | 2.45 |
Jacksonville | .71 | 1.69 | 2.40 |
NY Jets | .61 | 1.76 | 2.37 |
Detroit | .58 | 1.71 | 2.29 |
Philadelphia | .75 | 1.48 | 2.23 |
Tennessee | .60 | 1.63 | 2.22 |
Indianapolis | .60 | 1.43 | 2.03 |
It’s weak pass defenses that helped to drive the Ravens and Panthers up near the top. Baltimore’s next six games are against defenses that are currently allowing an average of 311 passing yards per game, along with 2.31 TDs (that would be 37 TD passes in a 16 game season). While Joe Flacco has dipped recently, it seems he’s got some chance of being a top-10 passer in a lot of these upcoming games.
Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz and Ben Roethlisberger are all great quarterbacks, but they’ve got the hardest pass schedules coming up. Luck right now is on pace to throw 46 TDs, but a decline is likely coming.
NEXT SIX GAMES (passing) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
Baltimore | 311 | 2.31 | 45.0 |
Carolina | 287 | 2.18 | 41.8 |
Cleveland | 294 | 1.96 | 41.1 |
New Orleans | 293 | 1.93 | 40.9 |
Denver | 285 | 2.01 | 40.6 |
Arizona | 279 | 2.03 | 40.1 |
Washington | 281 | 1.84 | 39.2 |
NY Giants | 276 | 1.91 | 39.1 |
LA Rams | 279 | 1.81 | 38.7 |
Dallas | 285 | 1.70 | 38.7 |
Tampa Bay | 274 | 1.84 | 38.4 |
LA Chargers | 271 | 1.88 | 38.4 |
Green Bay | 272 | 1.77 | 37.8 |
Cincinnati | 270 | 1.78 | 37.7 |
Minnesota | 258 | 1.95 | 37.5 |
San Francisco | 264 | 1.85 | 37.5 |
Oakland | 270 | 1.76 | 37.5 |
New England | 264 | 1.82 | 37.4 |
Seattle | 263 | 1.80 | 37.1 |
Miami | 265 | 1.77 | 37.1 |
Buffalo | 257 | 1.86 | 36.9 |
Jacksonville | 262 | 1.69 | 36.4 |
Detroit | 260 | 1.71 | 36.2 |
Houston | 267 | 1.58 | 36.1 |
NY Jets | 256 | 1.76 | 36.1 |
Tennessee | 257 | 1.63 | 35.5 |
Atlanta | 260 | 1.56 | 35.3 |
Chicago | 250 | 1.71 | 35.3 |
Kansas City | 257 | 1.57 | 35.1 |
Pittsburgh | 249 | 1.69 | 35.0 |
Philadelphia | 258 | 1.48 | 34.7 |
Indianapolis | 236 | 1.43 | 32.2 |
For rushing production, the Chargers, Cardinals and Ravens project to have the easiest upcoming schedules.
The Giants and Cowboys have two of the league’s best running backs, but they’ll be hamstrung by playing two of the three hardest rush schedules over the next six games.
NEXT SIX GAMES (rushing) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TD | Points |
LA Chargers | 126 | .96 | 18.4 |
Arizona | 126 | .95 | 18.3 |
Baltimore | 118 | 1.07 | 18.1 |
Kansas City | 122 | .97 | 18.0 |
Cincinnati | 116 | .95 | 17.3 |
San Francisco | 119 | .88 | 17.2 |
Cleveland | 116 | .92 | 17.1 |
Green Bay | 117 | .87 | 17.0 |
Carolina | 113 | .94 | 17.0 |
Houston | 115 | .90 | 16.9 |
Oakland | 112 | .88 | 16.5 |
Pittsburgh | 117 | .78 | 16.4 |
Chicago | 118 | .74 | 16.3 |
Buffalo | 121 | .68 | 16.2 |
Denver | 111 | .77 | 15.7 |
Atlanta | 101 | .90 | 15.5 |
New England | 113 | .71 | 15.5 |
New Orleans | 103 | .85 | 15.4 |
Indianapolis | 116 | .60 | 15.2 |
Miami | 108 | .73 | 15.2 |
Minnesota | 117 | .57 | 15.1 |
NY Jets | 111 | .61 | 14.8 |
Washington | 101 | .77 | 14.7 |
Tampa Bay | 95 | .84 | 14.6 |
Jacksonville | 102 | .71 | 14.4 |
Seattle | 103 | .69 | 14.4 |
LA Rams | 104 | .67 | 14.4 |
Tennessee | 107 | .60 | 14.3 |
Philadelphia | 95 | .75 | 14.0 |
Dallas | 91 | .76 | 13.7 |
Detroit | 100 | .58 | 13.4 |
NY Giants | 93 | .63 | 13.1 |
—Ian Allan