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Revised strength of schedule

Texans riding the league's easiest schedule

The strength of schedule data indicates the Houston Texans are the kings of the easy schedule this year. They have played the easiest schedule so far, and the numbers suggest they will play the easiest schedule in the final eight weeks.

First, a look at where we’re at after nine weeks:

Houston’s opponents have gone 28-39 in their games against other teams (that is, their 31-45 overall – 3-6 against Houston, and 28-39 in their other 67 games). The Jets and Raiders have also played easiest schedules so far (those teams have managed to struggle even while benefitting from easy schedules).

The Bengals, Bucs and Falcons, meanwhile, thus far have played the league’s hardest schedules.

(For the past few weeks, I have done these by defensive points and touchdowns allowed; this time I’m using the more traditional wins and losses.)

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-9)
TeamWLTPct
Houston28390.418
NY Jets28382.426
Oakland26341.434
Chicago26331.442
Philadelphia25311.447
Detroit27322.459
Minnesota31360.463
Seattle27310.466
Indianapolis28320.467
Arizona28321.467
Washington26291.473
Carolina27300.474
Dallas27300.474
Tennessee29310.483
LA Chargers29311.484
San Francisco31332.485
Miami33340.493
LA Rams32322.500
Pittsburgh30301.500
Jacksonville31290.517
Kansas City35312.529
New Orleans31272.533
Baltimore34293.538
Green Bay33280.541
NY Giants31260.544
New England36301.545
Denver38310.551
Buffalo36292.552
Cleveland36291.553
Atlanta32231.580
Tampa Bay33222.596
Cincinnati35231.602

Looking instead at the remaining eight weeks (including Week 17, which I sometimes leave out of these kind of things), the Texans project to play the easiest schedule. Their remaining seven games are against teams that are currently a combined 24-33-1.

Many (including myself) expect the Eagles to run down Washington in the NFC East. Washington has lost three offensive line starters, which will be a factor with those teams. But the schedules indicate Washington has a much easier schedule (the wins and losses say it’s the 2nd-easiest remaining schedule).The Eagles, meanwhile, project to play the 2nd-hardest remaining schedule, along with their in-state neighbors.

Oakland has the hardest remaining schedule, and I’m wondering if that team is even going to get to 2-14.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 10-17)
TeamWLTPct
Houston24331.422
Washington28370.431
Miami25332.433
Indianapolis29370.439
NY Giants29360.446
Kansas City26320.448
New England27322.459
Tennessee31360.463
Chicago30353.463
LA Chargers31361.463
Cincinnati30353.463
Atlanta30342.470
Green Bay31351.470
Buffalo29320.475
LA Rams28300.483
San Francisco28300.483
Denver27292.483
Dallas31330.484
Tampa Bay32340.485
Jacksonville33331.500
Baltimore29281.509
NY Jets31291.516
Seattle36312.536
Detroit36292.552
Carolina35282.554
Cleveland33260.559
Minnesota32251.560
Arizona37281.568
New Orleans36271.570
Pittsburgh38280.576
Philadelphia38280.576
Oakland41261.610

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index