The strength of schedule data indicates the Houston Texans are the kings of the easy schedule this year. They have played the easiest schedule so far, and the numbers suggest they will play the easiest schedule in the final eight weeks.
First, a look at where we’re at after nine weeks:
Houston’s opponents have gone 28-39 in their games against other teams (that is, their 31-45 overall – 3-6 against Houston, and 28-39 in their other 67 games). The Jets and Raiders have also played easiest schedules so far (those teams have managed to struggle even while benefitting from easy schedules).
The Bengals, Bucs and Falcons, meanwhile, thus far have played the league’s hardest schedules.
(For the past few weeks, I have done these by defensive points and touchdowns allowed; this time I’m using the more traditional wins and losses.)
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 1-9) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Houston | 28 | 39 | 0 | .418 |
NY Jets | 28 | 38 | 2 | .426 |
Oakland | 26 | 34 | 1 | .434 |
Chicago | 26 | 33 | 1 | .442 |
Philadelphia | 25 | 31 | 1 | .447 |
Detroit | 27 | 32 | 2 | .459 |
Minnesota | 31 | 36 | 0 | .463 |
Seattle | 27 | 31 | 0 | .466 |
Indianapolis | 28 | 32 | 0 | .467 |
Arizona | 28 | 32 | 1 | .467 |
Washington | 26 | 29 | 1 | .473 |
Carolina | 27 | 30 | 0 | .474 |
Dallas | 27 | 30 | 0 | .474 |
Tennessee | 29 | 31 | 0 | .483 |
LA Chargers | 29 | 31 | 1 | .484 |
San Francisco | 31 | 33 | 2 | .485 |
Miami | 33 | 34 | 0 | .493 |
LA Rams | 32 | 32 | 2 | .500 |
Pittsburgh | 30 | 30 | 1 | .500 |
Jacksonville | 31 | 29 | 0 | .517 |
Kansas City | 35 | 31 | 2 | .529 |
New Orleans | 31 | 27 | 2 | .533 |
Baltimore | 34 | 29 | 3 | .538 |
Green Bay | 33 | 28 | 0 | .541 |
NY Giants | 31 | 26 | 0 | .544 |
New England | 36 | 30 | 1 | .545 |
Denver | 38 | 31 | 0 | .551 |
Buffalo | 36 | 29 | 2 | .552 |
Cleveland | 36 | 29 | 1 | .553 |
Atlanta | 32 | 23 | 1 | .580 |
Tampa Bay | 33 | 22 | 2 | .596 |
Cincinnati | 35 | 23 | 1 | .602 |
Looking instead at the remaining eight weeks (including Week 17, which I sometimes leave out of these kind of things), the Texans project to play the easiest schedule. Their remaining seven games are against teams that are currently a combined 24-33-1.
Many (including myself) expect the Eagles to run down Washington in the NFC East. Washington has lost three offensive line starters, which will be a factor with those teams. But the schedules indicate Washington has a much easier schedule (the wins and losses say it’s the 2nd-easiest remaining schedule).The Eagles, meanwhile, project to play the 2nd-hardest remaining schedule, along with their in-state neighbors.
Oakland has the hardest remaining schedule, and I’m wondering if that team is even going to get to 2-14.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Weeks 10-17) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | T | Pct |
Houston | 24 | 33 | 1 | .422 |
Washington | 28 | 37 | 0 | .431 |
Miami | 25 | 33 | 2 | .433 |
Indianapolis | 29 | 37 | 0 | .439 |
NY Giants | 29 | 36 | 0 | .446 |
Kansas City | 26 | 32 | 0 | .448 |
New England | 27 | 32 | 2 | .459 |
Tennessee | 31 | 36 | 0 | .463 |
Chicago | 30 | 35 | 3 | .463 |
LA Chargers | 31 | 36 | 1 | .463 |
Cincinnati | 30 | 35 | 3 | .463 |
Atlanta | 30 | 34 | 2 | .470 |
Green Bay | 31 | 35 | 1 | .470 |
Buffalo | 29 | 32 | 0 | .475 |
LA Rams | 28 | 30 | 0 | .483 |
San Francisco | 28 | 30 | 0 | .483 |
Denver | 27 | 29 | 2 | .483 |
Dallas | 31 | 33 | 0 | .484 |
Tampa Bay | 32 | 34 | 0 | .485 |
Jacksonville | 33 | 33 | 1 | .500 |
Baltimore | 29 | 28 | 1 | .509 |
NY Jets | 31 | 29 | 1 | .516 |
Seattle | 36 | 31 | 2 | .536 |
Detroit | 36 | 29 | 2 | .552 |
Carolina | 35 | 28 | 2 | .554 |
Cleveland | 33 | 26 | 0 | .559 |
Minnesota | 32 | 25 | 1 | .560 |
Arizona | 37 | 28 | 1 | .568 |
New Orleans | 36 | 27 | 1 | .570 |
Pittsburgh | 38 | 28 | 0 | .576 |
Philadelphia | 38 | 28 | 0 | .576 |
Oakland | 41 | 26 | 1 | .610 |
—Ian Allan