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Trouble for Andrew Luck?

Colts upcoming schedule packed with tough pass defenses

With a team like Baltimore, you may be wishing they would just go away. Nobody wants to watch that offense. But the scheduling data indicates the Ravens might be surprisingly good over the next month.

If you total up the averages for each team’s next five opponents, the Ravens project to play the easiest schedule. By far. They’re next five games are against teams currently allowing an average of 3.4 TDs per game. Bengals, Raiders, Falcons, Kansas City, Bucs. Will be tough not to score some points in that stretch.

Two other offenses project to play their next five against defenses allowing an average of 3 TDs per week – Carolina and Cleveland.

At the other end, let’s not anoint Washington as NFC East champs just yet, and let’s definitely stay well away from that offense. That offense has been struggling anyway, and its next five are against defenses allowing just over 2 TDs per week.

Other offenses with tough upcoming schedules: Colts, Jets, Dolphins.

On the touchdowns here, I’m looking at just offensive touchdowns (no special teams, no defensive).

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, TOUCHDOWNS (next five)
TeamRunPassTotal
Baltimore1.202.233.43
Carolina1.081.993.07
Cleveland.872.133.00
New Orleans.912.002.91
LA Chargers1.081.812.89
Arizona.892.002.89
Denver.861.962.83
Oakland1.041.722.76
Dallas.891.822.71
San Francisco.801.872.67
Tampa Bay.781.862.65
Seattle.721.912.63
Buffalo.791.812.62
Cincinnati.861.742.60
Detroit.831.772.60
Pittsburgh.701.842.54
LA Rams.881.632.52
Green Bay.841.672.51
Philadelphia.831.672.50
New England.801.672.49
Chicago.831.652.47
Kansas City.721.762.47
Atlanta.961.512.47
Minnesota.681.782.46
Houston.861.572.45
NY Giants.691.732.42
Jacksonville.731.612.35
Tennessee.741.562.32
Miami.721.572.29
NY Jets.661.612.27
Indianapolis.621.492.12
Washington.671.422.09

For rushing production, our beloved Ravens again finish in the No. 1 spot. Chargers and Raiders also have easy schedules for running coming up.

The Giants (Saquon Barkley), Jaguars (Leonard Fournette) and Jets project to play the hardest run schedules over the next five weeks.

This assumes standard fantasy scoring – 6 for TDs, and 1 for every 10 yars. Rushing production only.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, RUSHING (next five)
TeamYardsTDRPoints
Baltimore1261.2019.8
LA Chargers1251.0819.0
Oakland1191.0418.1
Carolina1141.0817.9
Arizona125.8917.9
Cincinnati123.8617.5
Cleveland121.8717.3
Buffalo125.7917.2
Denver116.8616.8
LA Rams114.8816.7
Chicago117.8316.7
Pittsburgh123.7016.5
Atlanta108.9616.5
Kansas City119.7216.2
Houston110.8616.2
Green Bay110.8416.1
San Francisco112.8016.0
Detroit109.8315.9
New Orleans103.9115.8
New England108.8015.6
Tennessee112.7415.6
Minnesota115.6815.6
Philadelphia102.8315.2
Dallas98.8915.2
Miami105.7214.9
Tampa Bay101.7814.8
Indianapolis110.6214.7
Seattle103.7214.6
Washington105.6714.5
NY Jets105.6614.4
Jacksonville98.7314.2
NY Giants95.6913.7

For passing production, the Ravens again finish clearly in that No. 1 spot. If Lamar Jackson were to get to move into the starting lineup, the timing couldn’t be any better for him (not sure if he much passing ability, however). The Browns and Saints (as if they needed the help) also grade out favorably.

The Colts, Washington and Miami have the hardest upcoming pass schedules. Schedules again graded using standard fantasy scoring (6 for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).

Andrew Luck has been cranking up the touchdowns, but he’s upcoming schedule is scary.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, PASSING (next five)
TeamYardsTDPPoints
Baltimore3022.2343.6
Cleveland2872.1341.5
New Orleans2842.0040.4
Dallas2941.8240.4
Carolina2821.9940.2
Denver2831.9640.1
LA Chargers2801.8138.9
Arizona2672.0038.7
NY Giants2751.7337.9
Oakland2751.7237.8
Tampa Bay2641.8637.5
Seattle2591.9137.3
San Francisco2611.8737.3
Philadelphia2711.6737.1
Houston2741.5736.9
LA Rams2691.6336.7
Pittsburgh2561.8436.6
Cincinnati2621.7436.6
Minnesota2591.7836.6
Buffalo2541.8136.2
Green Bay2621.6736.2
Jacksonville2591.6135.6
Kansas City2501.7635.6
Detroit2491.7735.5
New England2531.6735.3
Chicago2531.6535.1
Tennessee2541.5634.8
NY Jets2501.6134.7
Atlanta2561.5134.7
Miami2511.5734.5
Washington2531.4233.8
Indianapolis2461.4933.6

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index