For fantasy purposes an underwhelming first round. Running back and wide receiver tend to be the key positions in our little game, and in that regard, it’s the worst first round I can remember.
Just one running back in the first round – Josh Jacobs – and he doesn’t look as promising as the vast majority of running backs who have been the first to have their names called. In this century, I see only two such backs who have been less anticipated than Jacobs. Willis McGahee (who spent his rookie season rehabbing a knee injury) and Giovani Bernard, going to Cincinnati in the second round in 2013.
| FIRST RUNNING BACK DRAFTED | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
| 2000 | 5 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 1,364 | 296 | 1,660 | 6 |
| 2001 | 5 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 1,236 | 367 | 1,603 | 10 |
| 2002 | 16 | William Green, Clev. | 887 | 113 | 1,000 | 6 |
| 2003 | 23 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2004 | 24 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 673 | 189 | 862 | 4 |
| 2005 | 2 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 907 | 232 | 1,139 | 5 |
| 2006 | 2 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 565 | 742 | 1,307 | 9 |
| 2007 | 7 | Adrian Peterson, Minn. | 1,341 | 268 | 1,609 | 13 |
| 2008 | 4 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 499 | 285 | 784 | 4 |
| 2009 | 12 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 947 | 213 | 1,160 | 9 |
| 2010 | 9 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 283 | 157 | 440 | 1 |
| 2011 | 28 | Mark Ingram, N.O. | 474 | 46 | 520 | 5 |
| 2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson, Clev. | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 |
| 2013 | 37 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 695 | 514 | 1,209 | 8 |
| 2015 | 10 | Todd Gurley, St.L. | 1,106 | 188 | 1,294 | 10 |
| 2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 |
| 2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 1,040 | 302 | 1,342 | 10 |
| 2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 |
| 2019 | 24 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | ? | ? | ? | ? |
On the wide receiver front, Hollywood Brown has some sizzle. He’s tiny (under 170 pounds), but with his speed looks like he might be another DeSean Jackson. But as luck would have it, he got picked by the Ravens, who probably will have the league’s worst passing offense. Great as Brown appears to be, it will be tough for him to make much of an impact in 2019.
One other receiver goes in the first round: N’Keal Harry to New England with the final pick. There’s some potential there. New England didn’t re-sign Chris Hogan, and it’s not certain that Josh Gordon will be available. They don’t have much at tight end anymore. I imagine they’ll primarily line up Harry outside and use him on more of their downfield routes. He’s big (6-2, 228) but isn’t a speed guy. He caught 155 passes for 2,230 yards and 17 TDs his final two years at Arizona State. But he’ll need to learn the offense and earn Tom Brady’s trust. The Patriots haven’t had much luck with drafting wide receivers. In the Bill Belichick era, they’ve selected 11 in the second, third and fourth rounds and hit only one of those picks (and even Deion Branch didn’t do much in his first year). Malcolm Mitchell seemed like he was going to be good and caught 6 passes in a Super Bowl game, but bad knees have already ended his career.
| NEW ENGLAND DRAFTING WIDE RECEIVERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Rd | Pk | Player | No | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2002 | 2 | 65 | • Deion Branch | 43 | 489 | 11.4 | 2 |
| 2003 | 2 | 45 | Bethel Johnson | 16 | 209 | 13.1 | 3 |
| 2006 | 2 | 36 | Chad Jackson | 13 | 152 | 11.7 | 3 |
| 2009 | 3 | 83 | Brandon Tate | 0 | 0 | -- | 0 |
| 2010 | 3 | 90 | Taylor Price | 3 | 41 | 13.7 | 0 |
| 2013 | 2 | 59 | Aaron Dobson | 37 | 519 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 2013 | 4 | 102 | Josh Boyce | 9 | 121 | 13.4 | 0 |
| 2016 | 4 | 112 | Malcolm Mitchell | 32 | 401 | 12.5 | 4 |
| 2019 | 1 | 32 | N'Keal Harry | ? | ? | ? | ? |
At least there’s Kyler Murray. He’s tiny, but he’s an intriguing fantasy option, with his speed and ability to make accurate downfield throws while on the run. He’s getting plugged into an aggressive, wide-open passing offense. To me, he looks above-average in comparison with other quarterbacks selected with top-5 picks.
At tight end, I believe I’ll have Noah Fant ranked higher than T.J. Hockenson. Denver has a glaring need at tight end, and Joe Flacco has a long history of liking to go to the position. It would not surprise me if Fant puts up top-10 tight end numbers in his first season.
Overall, a pretty lousy draft thus far, but let’s not quit on it just yet. There’s a whole bunch of really good wide receivers that will be selected in the second and third rounds.
Other draft-day observations.
Josh Rosen could/should be moved today. A handful of teams could be interested. Miami makes the most sense to me. They could bring him in for a year, and it wouldn’t cost much. There would be some chance he could develop into their long-term quarterback. If not, they would be able to select a different quarterback high in the first round next year.
Nick Saban has a nice little run going in Alabama, doesn’t he? With three more on Thursday night, he’s had 29 players selected in the first round of the last 11 drafts. The Crimson Tide from 2001 to 2008 didn’t have any players selected in the first round.
In Kansas City, it’s looking increasing likely that Tyreek Hill won’t play any football in 2019. His former teammate, Kareem Hunt, is suspended for the first eight games, and Hill’s actions appear to be significantly more significant – seemingly more incidents, and injuries involved. Great as he is, I don’t know that he’ll find a team that wants to deal with the headaches of putting him on the field. It’s a huge domino that’s falling, affecting other players on what was the league’s best offense last year. Patrick Mahomes tossed 50 touchdowns last year. Without Hill, I think 40 touchdowns will be out of reach this year. And I’m getting more interested in Sammy Watkins. He’s been plagued by injuries, of course, but if there’s no Hill, I would think Watkins would take on much more of a featured role.