Christian Kirk has been earning praise at Cardinals workouts; lots of positive talk about him possibly heading for a breakout season. Arizona's second-rounder a year ago was having a nice rookie season until he landed on IR with a foot injury.
It's a new quarterback and new offense, plus the Cardinals drafted three wide receivers in April. They also still have Larry Fitzgerald. But encouraging to think Kirk might be the best of that group.
I took a look at all of the wide receivers drafted in the second round since 2000. To get a reasonable number of players (not too huge or too few) I took all of those players who'd contributed at least something noteworthy as rookies -- I went with over 300 receiving yards, to exclude guys who did nothing, and usually fizzled out quickly. How did those players then perform in their second seasons?
I wound up with 44 names, plus last year's four second-round wideouts who were that productive as rookies -- Kirk, Courtland Sutton, Anthony Miller and Dante Pettis. Second-year numbers are encouraging for the outlook for those four.
Of the previous 44, just over half (23) put up more yards in their second seasons. That includes eight 1,000-yarders and seven more with at least 800 yards. Only about a third (16) failed to come within 80 percent of their rookie yards.
| 2ND-ROUND WIDEOUTS, 300-PLUS YARDS, YEAR 2 NUMBERS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Yds(1) | TD(1) | Yds(2) | TD(2) | % Chg(Yds) |
| 2012 | 45 | Alshon Jeffery, Chi. | 367 | 3 | 1421 | 7 | 387.2% |
| 2001 | 36 | Chad Johnson, Cin. | 329 | 1 | 1166 | 5 | 354.4% |
| 2014 | 61 | Allen Robinson, Jac. | 548 | 2 | 1400 | 14 | 255.5% |
| 2011 | 64 | Randall Cobb, G.B. | 375 | 1 | 954 | 8 | 254.4% |
| 2001 | 33 | Quincy Morgan, Clev. | 432 | 2 | 964 | 7 | 223.1% |
| 2017 | 37 | Zay Jones, Buff. | 316 | 2 | 652 | 7 | 206.3% |
| 2012 | supp | Josh Gordon, Clev. | 805 | 5 | 1646 | 9 | 204.5% |
| 2002 | 65 | Deion Branch, N.E. | 489 | 2 | 803 | 3 | 164.2% |
| 2017 | 62 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 917 | 8 | 1426 | 7 | 155.5% |
| 2014 | 63 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 758 | 5 | 1157 | 6 | 152.6% |
| 2006 | 52 | Greg Jennings, G.B. | 632 | 3 | 920 | 12 | 145.6% |
| 2005 | 35 | Reggie Brown, Phil. | 571 | 4 | 816 | 9 | 142.9% |
| 2013 | 34 | Justin Hunter, Tenn. | 354 | 4 | 498 | 3 | 140.7% |
| 2002 | 47 | Andre Davis, Clev. | 420 | 7 | 576 | 5 | 137.1% |
| 2008 | 49 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 912 | 4 | 1156 | 12 | 126.8% |
| 2013 | 41 | Robert Woods, Buff. | 587 | 3 | 699 | 5 | 119.1% |
| 2002 | 36 | Josh Reed, Buff. | 514 | 2 | 588 | 2 | 114.4% |
| 2014 | 42 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 872 | 8 | 997 | 8 | 114.3% |
| 2010 | 39 | Arrelious Benn, T.B. | 395 | 2 | 441 | 3 | 111.6% |
| 2016 | 47 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 1137 | 9 | 1245 | 5 | 109.5% |
| 2014 | 53 | Davante Adams, G.B. | 446 | 3 | 483 | 1 | 108.3% |
| 2016 | 40 | Sterling Shepard, NYG | 683 | 8 | 731 | 2 | 107.0% |
| 2011 | 58 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 841 | 7 | 855 | 8 | 101.7% |
| 2011 | 59 | Greg Little, Clev. | 709 | 2 | 647 | 4 | 91.3% |
| 2008 | 36 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 366 | 2 | 320 | 2 | 87.4% |
| 2008 | 33 | Donnie Avery, St.L. | 674 | 3 | 589 | 5 | 87.4% |
| 2002 | 33 | Jabar Gaffney, Hou. | 483 | 1 | 402 | 2 | 83.2% |
| 2001 | 52 | Chris Chambers, Mia. | 883 | 7 | 734 | 3 | 83.1% |
| 2015 | 41 | Devin Funchess, Car. | 473 | 5 | 371 | 4 | 78.4% |
| 2009 | 50 | Mohamed Massaquoi, Clev. | 624 | 3 | 483 | 2 | 77.4% |
| 2002 | 63 | Antonio Bryant, Dall. | 733 | 6 | 550 | 2 | 75.0% |
| 2002 | 62 | Antwaan Randle El, Pitt. | 489 | 3 | 364 | 3 | 74.4% |
| 2015 | 40 | Dorial Green-Beckham, Tenn. | 549 | 4 | 392 | 2 | 71.4% |
| 2011 | 44 | Titus Young, Det. | 607 | 6 | 383 | 4 | 63.1% |
| 2000 | 32 | Dennis Northcutt, Clev. | 422 | 0 | 211 | 0 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 39 | Marqise Lee, Jac. | 422 | 1 | 191 | 1 | 45.3% |
| 2003 | 54 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 1377 | 8 | 623 | 1 | 45.2% |
| 2004 | 62 | Keary Colbert, Car. | 754 | 5 | 282 | 2 | 37.4% |
| 2016 | 55 | Tyler Boyd, Cin. | 603 | 1 | 225 | 2 | 37.3% |
| 2007 | 44 | Sidney Rice, Minn. | 396 | 4 | 141 | 4 | 35.6% |
| 2008 | 42 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 980 | 5 | 345 | 2 | 35.2% |
| 2012 | 54 | Ryan Broyles, Det. | 310 | 2 | 85 | 0 | 27.4% |
| 2013 | 59 | Aaron Dobson, N.E. | 519 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 7.3% |
| 2004 | 54 | Darius Watts, Den. | 385 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 5.7% |
| 2018 | 40 | Courtland Sutton, Den. | 704 | 4 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | 47 | Christian Kirk, Ariz. | 590 | 3 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | 44 | Dante Pettis, S.F. | 467 | 5 | ? | ? | ? |
| 2018 | 51 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 423 | 7 | ? | ? | ? |
None of this guarantees Kirk is headed for a breakout season. But I think that the second-rounders who at least showed something as rookies then generally went on to build on those numbers a year later. I think I'll have a few shares of Kirk this summer.
--Andy Richardson