The Chicago Bears had a knockout performance a year ago, and they're the top defense on most boards for the 2019 season, as well. There was a story here discussing them over the week. Personally, I doubt I'll be drafting them anywhere, and doubt I'll be the first to select a defense in any league. Just too much year to year variance.
With personnel or coaching changes, differing schedules, and good old-fashioned dumb luck, it's tough for defenses to repeat elite performances. That's been shown in recent years.
I took a look at how top-5 fantasy defenses (scoring system 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways and 6 for touchdowns) over the past five years have performed the following season. Of the 27 top-5 defenses over the past five years (there were a couple of 5th-place ties), fewer than a quarter of them (six) made it back into the top 5 one year later. Only a third (nine) finished in the top 10.
| TOP-5 FANTASY DEFENSES, NEXT SEASON | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Rk | Next |
| 2013 | Kansas City | 1 | 25 |
| 2013 | Seattle | 2 | 18 |
| 2013 | LA Rams | 3 | 5 |
| 2013 | Cincinnati | 4 | 26 |
| 2013 | Carolina | 5 | 12 |
| 2014 | Philadelphia | 1 | 5 |
| 2014 | Houston | 2 | 12 |
| 2014 | Buffalo | 3 | 23 |
| 2014 | Green Bay | 4 | 17 |
| 2014 | LA Rams | 5 | 9 |
| 2014 | New England | 5 | 14 |
| 2015 | Arizona | 1 | 3 |
| 2015 | Carolina | 2 | 7 |
| 2015 | Denver | 3 | 5 |
| 2015 | Kansas City | 4 | 1 |
| 2015 | Philadelphia | 5 | 8 |
| 2016 | Kansas City | 1 | 12 |
| 2016 | Minnesota | 2 | 24-25 |
| 2016 | Arizona | 3 | 18-20 |
| 2016 | LA Chargers | 4 | 8 |
| 2016 | Tampa Bay | 5 | 14 |
| 2016 | Denver | 5 | 18 |
| 2017 | Jacksonville | 1 | 19 |
| 2017 | Baltimore | 2 | 14 |
| 2017 | LA Rams | 3 | 3 |
| 2017 | Detroit | 4 | 28 |
| 2017 | Philadelphia | 5 | 29 |
| 2018 | Chicago | 1 | ? |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 2 | ? |
| 2018 | LA Rams | 3 | ? |
| 2018 | Houston | 4 | ? |
| 2018 | Miami | 5 | ? |
In the table, top-5 defenses a year later are in bold, top-10 in italics.
Chicago returns all but one starter (safety Adrian Amos) from last year's defense, but they did lose coordinator Vic Fangio. They might still finish as a top 5 defense; that's what the projections indicate, anyway. But it's not a great recent history they're fighting. Not good enough odds to use a premium pick in my eyes, which means someone else will be selecting them.
--Andy Richardson