It's a big week of fantasy drafts. There won't be any key starters or backups playing in the remaining preseason games, at least none you actually want to select, so you're probably fine to take whoever you want. I have a big money draft on Wednesday, an auction on Saturday, and probably a few other leagues that I'll find my way into the next few days.
But am I really ready? I think so. To make sure, I'm going to cycle through the advice and rules I try to follow before each draft. Hopefully it will be useful to some of you. And feel free to weigh in with your own tips in the comments section.
1. Have at least one printed out Cheat Sheet. Seems simple, but I always see people who are content to just use either the site rankings or the ADP info at the league page to draft their team. That's all well and good, but what about the guys who emerge late and are ignored by the site rankings? The Bengals are going to be starting Damion Willis for A.J. Green. Dare Ogunbowale is maybe the sleeper of the year in Tampa Bay, and I had to use the site's search function just to find him in a draft last week. And don't get me started on possible Texan committee back Damarea Crockett. Print something out that you can mark all up with Xs or circles or highlights before your draft starts. You'll be glad you did.
2. Wait on a quarterback. Oh, right, the standard expert advice. If I do that, I can't draft Patrick Mahomes. It's true, if you wait on a quarterback you won't get the best one. So if you want Mahomes, and I don't blame you if you do, forget this advice. But I'm telling you that every time I draft a quarterback early, I hate the rest of my team. I'm either short at running back or wide receiver, or both, and it gnaws at me and forces my hand the rest of my draft and usually leads to later mistakes. Yes, I love my quarterback. But I also resent him, because I let his early selection impact the rest of my draft negatively. So, wait on a quarterback. No, you won't get Mahomes. But you also won't overdraft Deshaun Watson (because I love the guy but think he is being overdrafted), and you won't have made the mistake of selecting Andrew Luck right before he retired. (Or right after, which is of course worse.)
3. Get your guys. OK, if your guy is Mahomes, I guess you can disregard No. 2. But aside from that, you're going to have certain running backs, wide receivers and tight ends you've been itching to have on your team the entire preseason. With those guys (who you can highlight on your printed out cheat sheet!), don't be afraid to take them a round or two early. Yes, you might get some chuckles. But if you try to take those guys exactly where you think they should go, or where you assume everyone else thinks they should go, guaranteed you'll miss out on a bunch of them by a pick or two or three. Thinking that Darwin Thompson is going to be the next Jamaal Charles doesn't do you any good if you try to sneak him down into a really late round and get sniped a round before you take him. Take him early enough that you make sure you get him, and his breakout happens on your roster, not someone else's.
4. Trust the process. Here's a secret: Ian and I don't view every player the same way. He likes some more -- in some cases a lot more -- or less than I do. BUT: I know his likes or dislikes are based on intense scrutiny, round-the-clock research, game-watching, beat reporter analysis, and number-crunching. I know it. There is no part of me that looks at our rankings and thinks, hmm, maybe that ordering was copied out of a shoddy magazine that some huge conglomerate's interns threw together based on last year's ADP, slapped a huge company logo on it, and called it good. Of course we'll be wrong sometimes, guys will get hurt, coaches will have lied or whatnot. But when I make picks based on our rankings, I trust the process that got us there. Either it will work out, or if it doesn't, it damn well should have, and that's fantasy football.
5. Assume guys will get hurt. I realize I'm only going to start 2 running backs and 3 wide receivers and 1 QB and 1 TE. But Week 1 will probably be a bloodbath of injuries, and if Week 1 isn't, Week 2 will be, and if ... you get the idea. So I don't want to have just one great starting quarterback and then my 20th-ranked guy to stick in on a bye week. I want to get a top-5 or 10 guy on my board, and then a couple or three rounds later I'd like to get a top-10 or 15 guy. If I only have to use him on a bye, great. But my starter will probably get hurt, at virtually every position, and I'm going to draft accordingly.
6. Upside is always good. You get into the later rounds of drafts, and you'll see a lot of the same, functional types of options. Especially at wide receiver. Washington will have Trey Quinn in the slot and San Francisco will have Trent Taylor, once he's healthy. I'm not sure but I think they might be the same person. And maybe you're in a really deep PPR league and you need to have a guy who can catch a handful of passes for 50-60 yards each week. BUT, before settling for that kind of guy, think about throwing a pick at somebody like Will Fuller, who might be hurt OR might be a 100-yard, long TD every other week star. Or Deebo Samuel, who might not have much of a role OR might catch 40-yard touchdowns or run 50-yard endarounds every other week. There will be Quinns and Taylors and Coutees and Amendola types out there all season long. Throw some picks on guys who might have much lower floors, but greater ceilings.
7. Don't wait too long on kickers and defenses. Wait on them, yes. But you don't have to be the last-round type of drafter for those spots. Why? Because let's say it's an 18-round draft. If you take your kicker and defense in rounds 17 and 18, you're probably getting options outside your top 5 or even 10 at the position. And the question is, were the running back and wide receiver you took in rounds 15 and 16 actually better than the ones you could have taken in rounds 17 and 18 had you gone D and PK there? Were they, perhaps, the same ones? Don't be afraid to take your favorite players at a position, especially if it costs you nothing at more glamorous positions.
OK. I think I'm set now. Let's go build our teams.