I am going to circle back one more time to Matt Breida. Nobody else seems to like him, but to me, he looks like he’s going to be one of the better values at the running back position.
One of the larger issues hanging over San Francisco’s backfield has been Jerick McKinnon. They signed him to a big contract a year ago, only to see him tear his ACL before the season even began.
I was surprised when they didn’t release him in the offseason. Instead they paid him $3.7 million on April 1, with Kyle Shanahan saying he expected McKinnon to be their starting running back. They could have avoided paying out that money by simply cutting McKinnon loose.
(Aside: how is it that running backs like LeVeon Bell, Melvin Gordon and Ezekiel Elliott have had so much trouble getting paid, yet the 49ers cut a check for $3.7 million to a marginal running back trying to work his way back from a torn ACL?)
McKinnon came to camp, but after two practices had problems with his surgically repaired knee. He underwent a platelet-rich plasma treatment, missing the next 18 days.
McKinnon returned to practice Tuesday, but he’s had another setback, according to GM John Lynch. There’s been no official announcement, but it’s looking like he’s head for injured reserve. At best, he could return later in the season. Probably more likely, he never steps on a field for a regular-season game again. It’s a violent game, and his body doesn’t seem to be up to the rigors.
Which brings us back to Breida (and both Breida and McKinnon, oddly, played their college ball at tiny Georgia Southern). Breida is pretty good, and this once-crowded backfield is starting to look more palatable.
The 49ers signed Tevin Coleman in the offseason. He’s been starting their preseason games. I would expect they’ll be using Coleman and Breida as a one-two punch, and I can’t say with much certainty which player would be better.
They both know Kyle Shanahan’s system. Coleman played for him in Atlanta, while Breida was very effective last year when he was healthy, averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
I have trotted out the stat a few times (and I won’t repeat the chart here) that Breida last year broke big plays more often than any other running back. He had 10 runs of 20-plus yards in 153 carries. That’s No. 1 among running backs (better than even Saquon Barkley). And he had 5 plays of 20-plus yards in 27 receptions (No. 2 among running backs).
In the last two preseason games, I noticed that they rotated in Breida in the early series when in obvious passing situations. He was a liability as a pass catcher initially in his career, but it looks like they’ve got that figured out. I think he’s going to be more of their third-down back than Coleman.
Breida has had more success as a runner in the preseason. He’s carried 8 times for 48 yards. Coleman has carried 12 times for only 40 yards.
In my eyes, Breida and Coleman look pretty similar as fantasy prospects. Relative to where they’re being picked, Breida is far more likely to wind up on my rosters.
At some point, no doubt one or both of those backs will miss some time. With McKinnon seemingly out of the running, I think Raheem Mostert will be the No. 3 back. He had some success last year and has been good in the preseason, carrying 9 times for 66 yards. He’s also caught 2 passes for 42.
I think there’s some production here that’s worth going after.
San Francisco’s running backs last year combined for 2,580 yards and 9 TDs, ranking 15th in PPR scoring among the league’s 32 teams. With the team presumably being a little better and scoring a few more touchdowns, I think top-10 production (as a team) is a possibility.
| TEAM RUNNING BACK PRODUCTION | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Rec | ReYds | RuYds | TotYds | TD | Points |
| New Orleans | 109 | 903 | 1,766 | 2,669 | 27 | 537.9 |
| New England | 121 | 999 | 1,646 | 2,645 | 23 | 523.5 |
| LA Chargers | 107 | 1,050 | 1,705 | 2,755 | 22 | 514.5 |
| LA Rams | 70 | 676 | 1,855 | 2,531 | 24 | 467.1 |
| Kansas City | 82 | 922 | 1,371 | 2,293 | 25 | 461.3 |
| Chicago | 102 | 965 | 1,415 | 2,380 | 19 | 454.0 |
| NY Giants | 113 | 860 | 1,525 | 2,385 | 16 | 447.5 |
| Denver | 95 | 700 | 1,746 | 2,446 | 17 | 441.6 |
| Carolina | 114 | 919 | 1,303 | 2,222 | 17 | 438.2 |
| Seattle | 68 | 509 | 2,092 | 2,601 | 16 | 424.1 |
| Cleveland | 82 | 712 | 1,579 | 2,291 | 18 | 419.1 |
| Detroit | 116 | 753 | 1,496 | 2,249 | 12 | 412.9 |
| Indianapolis | 97 | 616 | 1,581 | 2,197 | 15 | 406.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 88 | 752 | 1,313 | 2,065 | 17 | 396.5 |
| San Francisco | 83 | 781 | 1,799 | 2,580 | 9 | 395.0 |
| Oakland | 107 | 839 | 1,473 | 2,312 | 8 | 386.2 |
| Baltimore | 70 | 454 | 1,659 | 2,113 | 17 | 383.3 |
| Philadelphia | 77 | 660 | 1,438 | 2,098 | 16 | 382.8 |
| Miami | 77 | 670 | 1,539 | 2,209 | 14 | 381.9 |
| Dallas | 88 | 640 | 1,577 | 2,217 | 10 | 369.7 |
| Tennessee | 74 | 499 | 1,592 | 2,091 | 14 | 367.1 |
| Washington | 81 | 613 | 1,370 | 1,983 | 13 | 357.3 |
| Jacksonville | 98 | 791 | 1,140 | 1,931 | 11 | 357.1 |
| Cincinnati | 83 | 555 | 1,413 | 1,968 | 12 | 351.8 |
| NY Jets | 68 | 599 | 1,436 | 2,035 | 12 | 343.5 |
| Green Bay | 72 | 601 | 1,299 | 1,900 | 13 | 340.0 |
| Atlanta | 68 | 471 | 1,365 | 1,836 | 13 | 329.6 |
| Arizona | 79 | 603 | 1,153 | 1,756 | 12 | 326.6 |
| Minnesota | 78 | 563 | 1,278 | 1,841 | 10 | 322.1 |
| Houston | 50 | 380 | 1,471 | 1,851 | 9 | 289.1 |
| Buffalo | 69 | 588 | 1,241 | 1,829 | 4 | 275.9 |
| Tampa Bay | 68 | 434 | 1,050 | 1,484 | 8 | 264.4 |
—Ian Allan