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Defensive strength of schedule

Identifying defenses that will be helped by lesser offenses

In an effort to over-analyze everything, let me take a stab at strength of schedule for defenses. This is my effort to rank defenses not on their overall quality, but on the looseness of the offenses they will play against.

I’ve played around with the numbers some, and defenses such as the Patriots, Browns and Rams catch my eye. They’ve got some ability anyway, and the schedule indicates some bonus sacks and turnovers should be coming their way.

Defenses such as the Titans, Texans, Vikings and Bears, on the other hand, have some ability, but the scheduling gods could conspire to hold their production down. (I wish I had done this a few weeks ago, because I have already selected Minnesota in two different drafts.)

First step in this exercise to jot down some estimate of what the offenses are all about. That is, you take each of the 32 offenses and estimate how many interceptions, fumbles and sacks they would cough up if playing an ordinary schedule.

In my eyes, the Patriots, Saints, Falcons and Kansas City are the worst offenses to go up against – teams that don’t tend to turn the ball over or hand over cheap sacks. After those four, I have two others that might surprise some readers: Jacksonville (with Nick Foles being good at getting the ball out of his hands) and the Colts, with a new quarterback but with Frank Reich’s offensive scheme still intact.

When I’m starting a defense in a fantasy league, I want it to be playing against Arizona, Miami, Tennessee, Tampa Bay or Washington.

OFFENSE RATINGS (sacks & turnovers)
TeamStarterSackIntFumPoints
New EnglandTom Brady269.06.056.0
New OrleansDrew Brees248.58.057.0
Kansas CityPatrick Mahomes2712.56.565.0
AtlantaMatt Ryan339.08.067.0
JacksonvilleNick Foles2712.08.067.0
IndianapolisJacoby Brissett3111.08.069.0
LA RamsJared Goff3212.07.070.0
SeattleRussell Wilson447.06.070.0
ChicagoMitchell Trubisky2814.08.072.0
PittsburghBen Roethlisberger2316.08.572.0
ClevelandBaker Mayfield3015.07.074.0
CarolinaCam Newton3414.07.076.0
LA ChargersPhilip Rivers3413.08.577.0
PhiladelphiaCarson Wentz3710.010.077.0
DenverJoe Flacco3315.07.578.0
Green BayAaron Rodgers447.010.078.0
DallasDak Prescott3910.59.579.0
MinnesotaKirk Cousins3811.59.079.0
CincinnatiAndy Dalton3913.58.082.0
DetroitMatthew Stafford4211.09.082.0
OaklandDerek Carr3911.010.582.0
NY JetsSam Darnold3515.59.585.0
NY GiantsManning / D.Jones3615.510.087.0
BuffaloJosh Allen3616.59.588.0
BaltimoreLamar Jackson4312.012.091.0
San FranciscoJimmy Garoppolo4015.510.091.0
HoustonDeshaun Watson5011.510.093.0
WashingtonKeenum / Haskins4016.011.094.0
Tampa BayJameis Winston4317.511.0100.0
TennesseeMariota / Tannehill5015.010.5101.0
MiamiRosen / Fitzpatrick4318.511.5103.0
ArizonaKyler Murray5019.012.0112.0

Programming note: On the above chart, the fumbles are team totals, not the number expected from the listed quarterback. For sacks and interceptions, those are expected 16-game totals.

Those numbers can be debated. No doubt you disagree with some of them. But if we take those projections and then plug them into the 2019 NFL schedule, we get an idea of which NFL defenses should see the most favorable matchups.

The Patriots, Giants, Browns and Bills show up in the top 4 spots. I’m not saying those will be the four best defenses, but they’re the four that should be helped the most by scheduling.

The Titans, Texans, Vikings and Bucs, if my numbers are correct, will be the most adversely affected by schedules – they’re tending to face more of the offenses that don’t give up sacks and turnovers.

The chart below, “Points” shows the total of the three categories, with 1 point for sacks and 2 points for takeaways.

DEFENSES, STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-16)
TeamSackIntFumPoints
New England592233.5153.51,366
NY Giants617212.5156.51,355
Cleveland599226.0146.51,344
Buffalo578224.5148.01,323
Seattle588220.0146.51,321
LA Rams604213.0143.01,316
Pittsburgh595218.0142.01,315
New Orleans611208.5141.01,310
Detroit598205.0150.51,309
Philadelphia599203.0147.51,300
Indianapolis587212.0144.01,299
NY Jets563219.5148.51,299
Cincinnati564222.0145.01,298
Washington590204.5148.51,296
Atlanta601204.5142.51,295
Jacksonville603204.5141.51,295
San Francisco605204.5140.51,295
Carolina608196.0146.51,293
Baltimore567226.0135.01,289
Dallas574206.5149.51,286
Green Bay575206.0142.51,272
LA Chargers574204.5141.51,266
Kansas City591192.0143.51,262
Miami546214.5142.51,260
Denver576197.5140.01,251
Arizona579201.0134.51,250
Oakland572203.0135.01,248
Chicago589183.0144.51,244
Tampa Bay584192.5136.51,242
Minnesota590183.5141.51,240
Houston552197.5138.01,223
Tennessee549201.0135.51,222

Suppose you don’t care about November and December. You’re more concerned about winning now. If we look at just the first eight games for each NFL team, the Panthers, Giants and Patriots project to play the easiest schedules.

The Texans, Jets and Broncos project to play the worst schedules (for defenses) in those first eight games.

DEFENSES, STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-8)
TeamSackIntFumPoints
Carolina335120.079.5734
NY Giants314111.077.0690
New England278128.576.5688
Buffalo306113.076.5685
San Francisco291123.071.5680
Atlanta33297.072.5671
LA Chargers300112.073.0670
Dallas295106.580.0668
New Orleans313103.571.5663
Cincinnati295110.073.0661
Detroit30599.576.5657
Philadelphia30797.075.5652
Washington287104.574.0644
Cleveland303101.068.5642
Miami276108.574.5642
Kansas City30990.575.0640
Minnesota29993.576.5639
Pittsburgh30099.570.0639
Jacksonville292105.567.0637
Indianapolis289103.070.0635
Baltimore282110.565.5634
Tampa Bay294101.565.5628
Seattle274105.070.5625
Chicago28992.074.5622
Tennessee267109.067.5620
LA Rams287100.065.0617
Oakland29393.568.0616
Green Bay28395.570.0614
Arizona29590.568.0612
Denver28095.570.0611
NY Jets264100.567.5600
Houston24991.064.5560

If we’re looking at just Week 1, I suppose the defenses we should all be mulling over would include Cleveland (vs. Tennessee), Baltimore (at Miami), Philadelphia (vs. Washington), Detroit (at Arizona) and New Orleans (vs. Houston). I expect the top-scoring defense for the opening weekend will come from that group.

—Ian Allan

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