In an effort to over-analyze everything, let me take a stab at strength of schedule for defenses. This is my effort to rank defenses not on their overall quality, but on the looseness of the offenses they will play against.
I’ve played around with the numbers some, and defenses such as the Patriots, Browns and Rams catch my eye. They’ve got some ability anyway, and the schedule indicates some bonus sacks and turnovers should be coming their way.
Defenses such as the Titans, Texans, Vikings and Bears, on the other hand, have some ability, but the scheduling gods could conspire to hold their production down. (I wish I had done this a few weeks ago, because I have already selected Minnesota in two different drafts.)
First step in this exercise to jot down some estimate of what the offenses are all about. That is, you take each of the 32 offenses and estimate how many interceptions, fumbles and sacks they would cough up if playing an ordinary schedule.
In my eyes, the Patriots, Saints, Falcons and Kansas City are the worst offenses to go up against – teams that don’t tend to turn the ball over or hand over cheap sacks. After those four, I have two others that might surprise some readers: Jacksonville (with Nick Foles being good at getting the ball out of his hands) and the Colts, with a new quarterback but with Frank Reich’s offensive scheme still intact.
When I’m starting a defense in a fantasy league, I want it to be playing against Arizona, Miami, Tennessee, Tampa Bay or Washington.
| OFFENSE RATINGS (sacks & turnovers) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Starter | Sack | Int | Fum | Points |
| New England | Tom Brady | 26 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 56.0 |
| New Orleans | Drew Brees | 24 | 8.5 | 8.0 | 57.0 |
| Kansas City | Patrick Mahomes | 27 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 65.0 |
| Atlanta | Matt Ryan | 33 | 9.0 | 8.0 | 67.0 |
| Jacksonville | Nick Foles | 27 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 67.0 |
| Indianapolis | Jacoby Brissett | 31 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 69.0 |
| LA Rams | Jared Goff | 32 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 70.0 |
| Seattle | Russell Wilson | 44 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 70.0 |
| Chicago | Mitchell Trubisky | 28 | 14.0 | 8.0 | 72.0 |
| Pittsburgh | Ben Roethlisberger | 23 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 72.0 |
| Cleveland | Baker Mayfield | 30 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 74.0 |
| Carolina | Cam Newton | 34 | 14.0 | 7.0 | 76.0 |
| LA Chargers | Philip Rivers | 34 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 77.0 |
| Philadelphia | Carson Wentz | 37 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 77.0 |
| Denver | Joe Flacco | 33 | 15.0 | 7.5 | 78.0 |
| Green Bay | Aaron Rodgers | 44 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 78.0 |
| Dallas | Dak Prescott | 39 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 79.0 |
| Minnesota | Kirk Cousins | 38 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 79.0 |
| Cincinnati | Andy Dalton | 39 | 13.5 | 8.0 | 82.0 |
| Detroit | Matthew Stafford | 42 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 82.0 |
| Oakland | Derek Carr | 39 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 82.0 |
| NY Jets | Sam Darnold | 35 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 85.0 |
| NY Giants | Manning / D.Jones | 36 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 87.0 |
| Buffalo | Josh Allen | 36 | 16.5 | 9.5 | 88.0 |
| Baltimore | Lamar Jackson | 43 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 91.0 |
| San Francisco | Jimmy Garoppolo | 40 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 91.0 |
| Houston | Deshaun Watson | 50 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 93.0 |
| Washington | Keenum / Haskins | 40 | 16.0 | 11.0 | 94.0 |
| Tampa Bay | Jameis Winston | 43 | 17.5 | 11.0 | 100.0 |
| Tennessee | Mariota / Tannehill | 50 | 15.0 | 10.5 | 101.0 |
| Miami | Rosen / Fitzpatrick | 43 | 18.5 | 11.5 | 103.0 |
| Arizona | Kyler Murray | 50 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 112.0 |
Programming note: On the above chart, the fumbles are team totals, not the number expected from the listed quarterback. For sacks and interceptions, those are expected 16-game totals.
Those numbers can be debated. No doubt you disagree with some of them. But if we take those projections and then plug them into the 2019 NFL schedule, we get an idea of which NFL defenses should see the most favorable matchups.
The Patriots, Giants, Browns and Bills show up in the top 4 spots. I’m not saying those will be the four best defenses, but they’re the four that should be helped the most by scheduling.
The Titans, Texans, Vikings and Bucs, if my numbers are correct, will be the most adversely affected by schedules – they’re tending to face more of the offenses that don’t give up sacks and turnovers.
The chart below, “Points” shows the total of the three categories, with 1 point for sacks and 2 points for takeaways.
| DEFENSES, STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-16) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Sack | Int | Fum | Points |
| New England | 592 | 233.5 | 153.5 | 1,366 |
| NY Giants | 617 | 212.5 | 156.5 | 1,355 |
| Cleveland | 599 | 226.0 | 146.5 | 1,344 |
| Buffalo | 578 | 224.5 | 148.0 | 1,323 |
| Seattle | 588 | 220.0 | 146.5 | 1,321 |
| LA Rams | 604 | 213.0 | 143.0 | 1,316 |
| Pittsburgh | 595 | 218.0 | 142.0 | 1,315 |
| New Orleans | 611 | 208.5 | 141.0 | 1,310 |
| Detroit | 598 | 205.0 | 150.5 | 1,309 |
| Philadelphia | 599 | 203.0 | 147.5 | 1,300 |
| Indianapolis | 587 | 212.0 | 144.0 | 1,299 |
| NY Jets | 563 | 219.5 | 148.5 | 1,299 |
| Cincinnati | 564 | 222.0 | 145.0 | 1,298 |
| Washington | 590 | 204.5 | 148.5 | 1,296 |
| Atlanta | 601 | 204.5 | 142.5 | 1,295 |
| Jacksonville | 603 | 204.5 | 141.5 | 1,295 |
| San Francisco | 605 | 204.5 | 140.5 | 1,295 |
| Carolina | 608 | 196.0 | 146.5 | 1,293 |
| Baltimore | 567 | 226.0 | 135.0 | 1,289 |
| Dallas | 574 | 206.5 | 149.5 | 1,286 |
| Green Bay | 575 | 206.0 | 142.5 | 1,272 |
| LA Chargers | 574 | 204.5 | 141.5 | 1,266 |
| Kansas City | 591 | 192.0 | 143.5 | 1,262 |
| Miami | 546 | 214.5 | 142.5 | 1,260 |
| Denver | 576 | 197.5 | 140.0 | 1,251 |
| Arizona | 579 | 201.0 | 134.5 | 1,250 |
| Oakland | 572 | 203.0 | 135.0 | 1,248 |
| Chicago | 589 | 183.0 | 144.5 | 1,244 |
| Tampa Bay | 584 | 192.5 | 136.5 | 1,242 |
| Minnesota | 590 | 183.5 | 141.5 | 1,240 |
| Houston | 552 | 197.5 | 138.0 | 1,223 |
| Tennessee | 549 | 201.0 | 135.5 | 1,222 |
Suppose you don’t care about November and December. You’re more concerned about winning now. If we look at just the first eight games for each NFL team, the Panthers, Giants and Patriots project to play the easiest schedules.
The Texans, Jets and Broncos project to play the worst schedules (for defenses) in those first eight games.
| DEFENSES, STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (G 1-8) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Sack | Int | Fum | Points |
| Carolina | 335 | 120.0 | 79.5 | 734 |
| NY Giants | 314 | 111.0 | 77.0 | 690 |
| New England | 278 | 128.5 | 76.5 | 688 |
| Buffalo | 306 | 113.0 | 76.5 | 685 |
| San Francisco | 291 | 123.0 | 71.5 | 680 |
| Atlanta | 332 | 97.0 | 72.5 | 671 |
| LA Chargers | 300 | 112.0 | 73.0 | 670 |
| Dallas | 295 | 106.5 | 80.0 | 668 |
| New Orleans | 313 | 103.5 | 71.5 | 663 |
| Cincinnati | 295 | 110.0 | 73.0 | 661 |
| Detroit | 305 | 99.5 | 76.5 | 657 |
| Philadelphia | 307 | 97.0 | 75.5 | 652 |
| Washington | 287 | 104.5 | 74.0 | 644 |
| Cleveland | 303 | 101.0 | 68.5 | 642 |
| Miami | 276 | 108.5 | 74.5 | 642 |
| Kansas City | 309 | 90.5 | 75.0 | 640 |
| Minnesota | 299 | 93.5 | 76.5 | 639 |
| Pittsburgh | 300 | 99.5 | 70.0 | 639 |
| Jacksonville | 292 | 105.5 | 67.0 | 637 |
| Indianapolis | 289 | 103.0 | 70.0 | 635 |
| Baltimore | 282 | 110.5 | 65.5 | 634 |
| Tampa Bay | 294 | 101.5 | 65.5 | 628 |
| Seattle | 274 | 105.0 | 70.5 | 625 |
| Chicago | 289 | 92.0 | 74.5 | 622 |
| Tennessee | 267 | 109.0 | 67.5 | 620 |
| LA Rams | 287 | 100.0 | 65.0 | 617 |
| Oakland | 293 | 93.5 | 68.0 | 616 |
| Green Bay | 283 | 95.5 | 70.0 | 614 |
| Arizona | 295 | 90.5 | 68.0 | 612 |
| Denver | 280 | 95.5 | 70.0 | 611 |
| NY Jets | 264 | 100.5 | 67.5 | 600 |
| Houston | 249 | 91.0 | 64.5 | 560 |
If we’re looking at just Week 1, I suppose the defenses we should all be mulling over would include Cleveland (vs. Tennessee), Baltimore (at Miami), Philadelphia (vs. Washington), Detroit (at Arizona) and New Orleans (vs. Houston). I expect the top-scoring defense for the opening weekend will come from that group.
—Ian Allan