If we’re looking at quarterbacks long-term (rather than just this season) there are four that I like. There are just four, I think, that really move the needle.

Patrick Mahomes is an easy No. 1. To me, he looks like he could have a bunch of seasons with 40-plus touchdowns. And while he’s had a bunch of nagging injuries this season, I envision him having fewer of those kind of problems in the future than the other top quarterbacking prospects.

I’m going with Deshaun Watson as the No. 2 quarterback. He’s not quite as dynamic or effective as a passer, but with his scrambling ability, he’s got the ability to hang with Mahomes in a lot of weeks. He exposes himself to a lot of hard hits on runs and sacks, so I worry about his ability to crank out year after year of 16-game seasons.

Russell Wilson is my 3rd quarterback, but I never really considered him for the top 2. He’s not as explosive as Mahomes or Watson, and he’s 7 years older than those guys. With Seattle having a more balanced offense, Wilson can’t string together a bunch of 300-yard games like those guys.

Lamar Jackson is the last quarterback I would put in the top tier. He’s putting up great numbers right now – the best QB stats in the league – but I don’t know that it’s sustainable. I imagine defenses will figure out how to better defend Baltimore’s run-oriented scheme, and I don’t think Jackson can stay healthy for long while running the ball like a tailback.

The rankings below assume standard scoring, with teams allowed to protect players indefinitely. I’m looking not just at 2019 and 2020, but the next few season. I’m looking for difference makers – just who’ll have some top-10 seasons (hopefully top-5).

I last looked at quarterbacks a month ago. Biggest movers up since that time are Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston. Winston is a turnover machine, of course; he might bumble his way out of Tampa Bay. But with the yards and touchdown numbers he’s putting up, he’s got some potential to be a top-10 quarterback in 2020. I would rather have his upside, rather than a more secure starter with limited potential of ever developing into something special.

With the kind of numbers Tannehill is putting up for the Titans (and the weapons they have) I think it’s time to include him in the discussion of possible top-10 quarterbacks in 2020. Tannehill will be a free agent at the end of the year, but I think he’ll re-sign with Tennessee.

Each weekend I switch the focus to the dynasty format, looking at a position each week. I hit tight ends last week. Next time I’ll turn the focus to running backs. For previous articles, see the “Past Issues” link on the right side of the page. Rookies are tagged with black dots.

1.KCPatrick Mahomes24
2.HOUDeshaun Watson24
3.SEARussell Wilson31
4.BALLamar Jackson22
5.DALDak Prescott26
6.ARI• Kyler Murray 22
7.ATLMatt Ryan34
8.GBAaron Rodgers36
9.PHICarson Wentz26
10.MINKirk Cousins31
11.CLEBaker Mayfield24
12.BUFJosh Allen23
13.TBJameis Winston25
14.TENRyan Tannehill31
15.DETMatthew Stafford31
16.CARCam Newton30
17.NYJSam Darnold22
18.LARJared Goff25
19.SFJimmy Garoppolo28
20.INDJacoby Brissett27
21.NODrew Brees40
22.OAKDerek Carr28
23.PITBen Roethlisberger37
24.NYG• Daniel Jones 22
25.NETom Brady42
26.DEN• Drew Lock 23
27.WAS• Dwayne Haskins 22
28.CHIMitchell Trubisky25
29.LACPhilip Rivers38
30.JAC• Gardner Minshew 24
31.CINAndy Dalton32
32.NOTeddy Bridgewater27
33.TENMarcus Mariota26
34.PIT• Devlin Hodges23
35.LACTyrod Taylor30
36.MIARyan Fitzpatrick37
37.JACNick Foles30
38.NE• Jarrett Stidham 23
39.MIAJosh Rosen22
40.SFNick Mullens24
41.CAR• Will Grier 24
42.INDAndrew Luck30
43.LARBlake Bortles27
44.WASCase Keenum31
45.NOTaysom Hill29
46.HOUAJ McCarron29
47.BALRobert Griffin29
48.CIN• Ryan Finley 24
49.ARIBrett Hundley26
50.CARKyle Allen23

—Ian Allan