Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa will continue to be the most talked about rookies, but I’m a lot more interested in the wide receivers. There are a lot of good ones available, and they’ve got a better chance of making an impact in 2020.
There is no dominant elite receiver who’ll go in the top 5 overall. There’s no Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson or A.J. Green. But there are a bunch who look like solid first-round picks. CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma) and Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy (pictured) probably will be the first off the board, and there are plenty of other good ones. Justin Jefferson (Louisiana State), Denzel Mims (Baylor), Tee Higgins (Clemson), Henry Ruggs (Alabama) and others.
And there are teams that are looking for pass-catching help. Certainly the Raiders (12th, 19th), Eagles (21st) and Packers (30th). By the end of the first round, I expect all of those teams will have picked a wide receiver they’re expecting to be a big contributor from Day One.
The Bills, Bengals, Cardinals, Broncos, Saints, Patriots, Dolphins and Jets could give serious consideration to a wide receiver with one of their first two picks.
If form holds, I think we’ll see at least a couple of rookie receivers putting up decent numbers. In the last 20 years, 33 wide receivers have finished with top-30 numbers in their first season.
True elite numbers, of course, are difficult. In the last 30 years, only four rookie wide receivers have put up top-10 numbers. For PPR scoring, you see Anquan Boldin (3rd), Michael Thomas (7th) and Odell Beckham (8th) on the chart below. Randy Moss (2nd) ripped up the league pretty good in 1998 (the chart below shows only the last 20 years, so Moss isn’t listed). The league right now is overstocked with good pass catchers.
It’s very unlikely that what happened in 2014 can be matched; six rookie receivers that year posted top-30 numbers (using PPR scoring). But I expect we’ll see some productive ones. There should be some decent pairings of talent and opportunity.
| ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (Rd-Pk) | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2000 | Peter Warrick, Cin. (1-4) | 51 | 740 | 7 | 167.0 | 30 |
| 2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. (2-54) | 101 | 1,417 | 8 | 290.7 | 3 |
| 2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. (1-3) | 66 | 966 | 4 | 186.6 | 22 |
| 2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. (1-15) | 80 | 1,223 | 7 | 244.3 | 14 |
| 2004 | Lee Evans, Buff. (1-13) | 48 | 928 | 9 | 194.8 | 29 |
| 2006 | Marques Colston, N.O. (7-252) | 70 | 1,038 | 8 | 221.8 | 16 |
| 2007 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. (1-23) | 70 | 995 | 5 | 199.5 | 22 |
| 2008 | Eddie Royal, Den. (2-42) | 91 | 1,089 | 5 | 231.9 | 14 |
| 2008 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. (2-49) | 62 | 1,008 | 4 | 186.8 | 30 |
| 2009 | Percy Harvin, Min. (1-22) | 60 | 925 | 8 | 200.5 | 23 |
| 2009 | Austin Collie, Ind. (4-127) | 60 | 677 | 7 | 169.7 | 29 |
| 2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. (4-101) | 65 | 964 | 11 | 227.4 | 16 |
| 2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. (1-4) | 65 | 1,110 | 7 | 218.0 | 17 |
| 2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. (1-6) | 54 | 1,015 | 8 | 203.5 | 21 |
| 2011 | Torrey Smith, Balt. (2-58) | 50 | 880 | 7 | 180.0 | 30 |
| 2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. (3-92) | 50 | 890 | 8 | 187.0 | 28 |
| 2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. (1-5) | 64 | 888 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
| 2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. (3-76) | 71 | 1,046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
| 2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG (1-12) | 91 | 1,340 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
| 2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. (1-7) | 68 | 1,051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
| 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. (1-28) | 73 | 1,008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. (2-42) | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
| 2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. (1-4) | 65 | 990 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
| 2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. (2-63) | 84 | 754 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 |
| 2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. (1-4) | 72 | 1,067 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
| 2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. (2-47) | 92 | 1,137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
| 2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. (5-165) | 61 | 860 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
| 2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. (2-62) | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
| 2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR (3-69) | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
| 2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. (1-26) | 64 | 848 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
| 2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. (2-51) | 52 | 1,111 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
| 2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. (2-64) | 58 | 911 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 |
| 2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. (3-76) | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
On the chart above, the final column shows where the player ranked among receivers in his first year. That’s using PPR scoring. The yards includes both rushing and receiving production.
—Ian Allan