There are four running backs who showed promise last year as rookies. Should we all be tripping over ourselves to select these guys? Or is it better to show caution when a player is entering his second year?
One line of thinking is that a player will naturally and with little elbow grease be better in his second year. He knows the offense better and has presumably adjusted to the speed of the pro game. He’s got a feel for the lay of the land, and perhaps the team will be looking for him to do more, with the coaching knowing him better and trusting him more.
That’s the general line of thinking.
But is that actually true? Should we all be looking to select Miles Sanders (pictured), Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery and Devin Singletary?
To me, they all have selling points, and I wouldn’t mind having all four of them. I would be willing to roll with that stable of backs.
But there’s the other general theory on young players: the sophomore slump. And as you roll out the numbers, the sophomore slump holds up pretty well against the theory that everyone, with just a little effort, will tend to get better each year.
On this one, I pulled out the last 40 rookie running backs who in their first season ranked in the top 35 in fantasy production at their position (using PPR scoring). Only I left out the top 10 guys. I did that because the purpose of the study isn’t to check and see how known superstars – Ezekiel Elliott, Adrian Peterson, Saquon Barkley – follow up on great rookie seasons. Instead, I was interested in measuring whether a player who had shown some potential could continue to improve.
So, all backs below ranked outside the top 10 but were in the top 35 as rookies. Then you look at how the guys did in their second season.
Chart shows that of the 40 running backs, 17 put up better numbers in their second season, while 23 got worse. Edge: sophomore slump.
Only seven backs were able to improve enough to move up into the top 10 at their position (I’ve got them flagged with black dots). Twice as many (14) dropped out of the top 40.
There are 40 backs in this study. They averaged 1,005 run-rec yards and 6 TDs in their first year. Those same 40 averaged 918 and 5 in Year No. 2.
The 40 backs are in order of their PPR points in their first year. Then you see their second-year totals (“Next”) listed on the right.
To avoid making the chart wildly confusing, numbers have been trimmed down. Rather than showing catches, rushing yards and receiving yards, I’m just showing total yards and total touchdowns. The rank “Rk” shows where they ranked among running backs that year.
| ROOKIE BACKS SHOWING PROMISE | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Yds-TD | Rk | Next | Rk |
| 2008 | • Chris Johnson, Ten. | 1488-10 | 11 | 2509-16 | 1 |
| 2006 | • Joseph Addai, Ind. | 1406-8 | 13 | 1436-15 | 4 |
| 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 1209-8 | 13 | 1029-7 | 18 |
| 2018 | Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 1278-10 | 13 | 1207-7 | 20 |
| 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 1327-6 | 15 | ?-? | ? |
| 2013 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 1259-8 | 15 | 2215-11 | 1 |
| 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 1262-8 | 17 | 1162-5 | 21 |
| 2010 | Jahvid Best, Det. | 1042-6 | 20 | 677-3 | 43 |
| 2009 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 1160-9 | 18 | 1151-8 | 18 |
| 2007 | Marshawn Lynch, Buff. | 1299-7 | 16 | 1336-9 | 13 |
| 2018 | • Nick Chubb, Cle. | 1145-10 | 17 | 1772-8 | 8 |
| 2019 | Josh Jacobs, Oak. | 1316-7 | 21 | ?-? | ? |
| 2013 | Zac Stacy, St.L. | 1114-8 | 21 | 445-1 | 68 |
| 2005 | Cadillac Williams, T.B. | 1259-6 | 21 | 994-1 | 36 |
| 2005 | Ronnie Brown, Mia. | 1139-5 | 23 | 1284-5 | 22 |
| 2019 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 1074-7 | 24 | ?-? | ? |
| 2011 | Roy Helu, Was. | 1019-3 | 25 | 47-0 | 127 |
| 2013 | Andre Ellington, Ariz. | 1023-4 | 26 | 1055-5 | 19 |
| 2015 | Duke Johnson, Cle. | 913-2 | 24 | 872-1 | 32 |
| 2009 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 945-4 | 32 | 1672-9 | 3 |
| 2006 | Laurence Maroney, N.E. | 939-7 | 27 | 951-6 | 33 |
| 2008 | Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 636-10 | 32 | 1026-8 | 14 |
| 2008 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 883-10 | 33 | 1272-11 | 15 |
| 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 1019-3 | 28 | 777-2 | 34 |
| 2017 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 723-4 | 28 | 1169-8 | 11 |
| 2006 | Mike Bell, Den. | 835-8 | 31 | 10-0 | 149 |
| 2019 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 969-4 | 33 | ?-? | ? |
| 2015 | Javorius Allen, Balt. | 867-3 | 29 | 49-0 | 133 |
| 2016 | Devontae Booker, Den. | 877-5 | 29 | 574-1 | 50 |
| 2015 | Jeremy Langford, Chi. | 816-7 | 30 | 342-4 | 60 |
| 2010 | • Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 823-7 | 31 | 1546-6 | 7 |
| 2011 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 1080-2 | 30 | 914-4 | 26 |
| 2017 | • Joe Mixon, Cin. | 913-4 | 33 | 1464-9 | 10 |
| 2014 | Branden Oliver, S.D. | 853-4 | 26 | 220-0 | 93 |
| 2014 | Andre Williams, NYG | 851-7 | 27 | 264-1 | 89 |
| 2010 | LeGarrette Blount, T.B. | 1021-6 | 34 | 929-5 | 33 |
| 2017 | Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 818-6 | 34 | 674-3 | 45 |
| 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 854-4 | 33 | 530-4 | 54 |
| 2018 | Sony Michel, N.E. | 981-6 | 34 | 1006-7 | 31 |
| 2006 | Leon Washington, NYJ | 920-4 | 35 | 566-6 | 35 |
| 2014 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 913-5 | 30 | 295-1 | 77 |
| 2007 | Selvin Young, Den. | 960-1 | 34 | 319-1 | 82 |
| 2012 | Vick Ballard, Ind. | 966-3 | 33 | 58-0 | 132 |
| 2014 | Isaiah Crowell, Cle. | 694-8 | 33 | 888-5 | 33 |
—Ian Allan