It looks like a down year for tight ends. There probably won’t be one selected in the first round. Maybe not even in the top 40.

This is unusual. Since the merger in 1970, there have been only 14 years that no tight end has been selected in the first round.

Historically, those guys haven’t tended to step into the league and tear things up. Two of those 14 put up top-15 numbers in their first season – Robert Awalt (1987) and Cam Cleeland (1998).

A couple of others notably went on to outperform their draft position (but with their best seasons coming later ) – Kyle Rudolph and Hunter Henry.

FIRST TIGHT END OUTSIDE THE FIRST ROUND
YearPlayerPkNoYdsTDPPRRk
1971Jan White, Buff.2913130026.033
1982Lawrence Sampleton, Phil.4712403.462
1985Jonathan Hayes, K.C.41539114.956
1986Eric Kattus, Cin.911199126.946
1987Robert Awalt, St.L.62425266129.72
1989Walter Reeves, Ariz.401501.575
1991Reggie Johnson, Den.30673119.346
1994Lonnie Johnson, Buff.6134207.264
1998Cam Cleeland, N.O.40546846158.44
1999Reggie Kelly, Atl.428146022.652
2011Kyle Rudolph, Min.4326249368.934
2012Coby Fleener, Ind.3426281266.138
2015Maxx Williams, Balt.5532268164.839
2016Hunter Henry, S.D.35364788131.818

While there aren’t wildly coveted tight ends in this draft class, however, that doesn’t mean there won’t be some very good ones. Nobody, for example, was talking about Mark Andrews, George Kittle and Travis Kelce as Day One draft picks, and they’ve become fine players.

In the last 20 years, 33 players have entered the league and at some point put up top-5 numbers at the position (using PPR scoring). Less than a third of those guys were first-rounders.

TIGHT ENDS WITH TOP-5 SEASONS (last 20 yrs)
YearPlayerCollegeRdPk
2000Bubba FranksMiami114
2001Todd HeapArizona State131
2001Alge CrumplerNorth Carolina235
2001Eric JohnsonYale7224
2002Jeremy ShockeyMiami114
2002Randy McMichaelGeorgia4114
2003Dallas ClarkIowa124
2003Jason WittenTennessee369
2003Antonio GatesKent State--FA
2004Chris CooleyUtah State381
2005Heath MillerVirginia130
2006Marcedes LewisUCLA128
2006Vernon DavisMaryland16
2006Delanie WalkerCentral Missouri6175
2007Greg OlsenMiami131
2007Brent CelekCincinnati5162
2008Martellus BennettTexas A&M261
2008Gary BarnidgeLouisville5141
2009Jared CookSouth Carolina389
2010Rob GronkowskiArizona242
2010Jimmy GrahamMiami395
2010Aaron HernandezFlorida4113
2011Kyle RudolphNotre Dame243
2011Jordan CameronSouthern Cal4102
2011Julius ThomasPortland State4129
2013Zach ErtzStanford235
2013Travis KelceCincinnati363
2013Jordan ReedFlorida385
2014Eric EbronNorth Carolina110
2015Darren WallerGeorgia Tech6204
2017Evan EngramMississippi123
2017George KittleIowa5146
2018Mark AndrewsOklahoma386

I have looked at a few mock drafts, and they suggest Cole Kmet will be the first tight end chosen. He didn’t put up huge numbers at Notre Dame – he caught 43 passes for 515 yards and 6 TDs last year. He’s more of a pass catcher than a blocker – he needs to fill out. He’s taller than most tight ends (6-6, 262), and with larger hands.

We’ll see where he lands, but I would expect Kmet probably will be worked in more as a rookie, rather than asked to be a full-time guy from the get-go. If he’s going to put up impact production, it will more likely come in a later season (especially with the coronavirus dynamic restricting the ability of teams to practice and prepare in the offseason).

—Ian Allan