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Factoid

2nd-round running backs

What should expectations be for five incoming rookies?

It was an historic class of wideouts, with more drafted in the first two rounds than ever before, and a noteworthy one for offensive tackles -- four drafted in the top 13 for just the second time since 1992. But it looks like teams also had some fondness for the incoming running backs.

Just one, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, selected in the first round, of course, but five selected in Round 2 last night. That's rare: it's happened only one other time this century. (On average, 2.4 running backs have been selected in the second round since 2000; half as many.)

The downside from a fantasy perspective is that three of those guys -- D'Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor and AJ Dillon -- were drafted by teams that have a young, established starter at the position (Colts and Packers certainly, Lions to a lesser extent). J.K. Dobbins (pictured) goes to the league's best rushing team (Ravens) but will need to bide his time, at least initially, behind Mark Ingram and probably Gus Edwards. Cam Akers to the Rams has the least in front of him (Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown).

With all of these guys, there was at least a little hope they'd go to a team where their odds were better of being an early starter -- Miami, or perhaps Pittsburgh or Tampa Bay. (The Bucs did select a third-round prospect, KeShawn Vaughn, and in redraft leagues he might be selected before most of the second rounders.)

Anyway, here are the 47 second-rounders from the last 20 years, with their rookie numbers shown. About half (24) of those players finished under 500 total yards as rookies. A little more than a fifth (10) finished with top-25 fantasy numbers (PPR); those guys are in bold. Statistically, those are the odds that these players will have a significant rookie season.

2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, ROOKIE PERFORMANCE (2000-)
YearPkPlayerAttYdsNoRecTotTDRk
201953Miles Sanders, Phil.179818505091327615
201835Nick Chubb, Clev.1929962014911451017
201843Kerryon Johnson, Det.11864132213854433
201838Ronald Jones, T.B.234473377195
201859Derrius Guice, Wash.000000--
201748Joe Mixon, Cin.17862630287913433
201741Dalvin Cook, Minn.743541190444272
201645Derrick Henry, Tenn.11049013137627545
201536T.J. Yeldon, Jac.182740362791019328
201554Ameer Abdullah, Det.14359725183780344
201455Jeremy Hill, Cin.2221124272151339910
201454Bishop Sankey, Tenn.15256918133702244
201457Carlos Hyde, S.F.833331268401461
201361Eddie Lacy, G.B.2841178352571435118
201337Giovani Bernard, Cin.170695565141209813
201348LeVeon Bell, Pitt.244860453991259815
201358Montee Ball, Den.12055920145704443
201362Christine Michael, Sea.187900790131
201261LaMichael James, S.F.271253291540116
201250Isaiah Pead, St.L.1054316700130
201162Daniel Thomas, Mia.1655811272653151
201156Shane Vereen, N.E.155700571123
201157Mikel Leshoure, Det.000000--
201138Ryan Williams, Ariz.000000--
201051Toby Gerhart, Minn.8132221167489158
201058Ben Tate, Hou.000000--
201059Montario Hardesty, Clev.000000--
200953LeSean McCoy, Phil.15563740308945432
200844Matt Forte, Chi.3161238634771715122
200855Ray Rice, Balt.10745433273727049
200763Brandon Jackson, G.B.7526716130397167
200750Chris Henry, Tenn.311196531722--
200749Kenny Irons, Cin.000000--
200660Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.166941464361377168
200645LenDale White, Tenn.612441460304072
200544J.J. Arrington, Ariz.11237025139509253
200554Eric Shelton, Car.000000--
200443Julius Jones, Dall.19781917107926731
200441Tatum Bell, Den.75396580476363
200455Greg Jones, Jac.62162313175383
200251Clinton Portis, Den.2731508333641872177
200256Ladell Betts, Wash.6530712154461162
200254Maurice Morris, Sea.32153325178195
200234DeShaun Foster, Car.000000--
200138Anthony Thomas, Chi.2781183221781361717
200158Travis Henry, Buff.21372922179908430
200149LaMont Jordan, NYJ39292744336272

Long-term, incidentally, I think some of these picks are very intriguing. Jonathan Taylor goes to a Colts team that has a great offensive line, and Marlon Mack has had some injury issues. D'Andre Swift joins the Lions where Kerryon Johnson has also been injury-prone, and ordinary when he's on the field. Those rookies might start some games this year, and enable the teams to avoid giving second contracts to those backs. Dobbins can replace Ingram a year or two down the road, Akers could start right away with Henderson having shown nothing, and Dillon should be a nice No. 2 and possible replacement if Aaron Jones gets hurt or leaves after his current contract is up.

But most likely, only one or at most two of these guys will be significant players in 2020. You draft most of them in middle or later rounds and hope they get a chance due to injury. Definitely not as a Week 1 starter.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index