Can we tap the brakes a little on the Clyde Edwards-Helaire hype train? Neat little player, but it will be a surprise if he’s a top-20 running back this year.
I like the player. I have no problem with Kansas City making him the first running back selected. But they have other capable backs – guys with a lot more knowledge of their system.
Damien Williams isn’t chopped liver. He’s scored 10 TDs in his last five playoff games. I don’t find it hard to believe that anybody other than him will be the team’s starting running back on opening day.
Andy Reid, recall, is a coach who believes in bringing along players slowly. And not just with quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb and Patrick Mahomes. LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook had great seasons in that offense, but they didn’t really blossom until later in their careers. Neither put up top-30 stats in their first season.
There is a notable exception at the position, of course. Kareem Hunt ripped it up pretty good as a rookie in that offense. But it’s my belief that the plan for Hunt was for him to be their backup. Had Spencer Ware not torn his ACL in a preseason game at Seattle, I believe Hunt would have opened that season as a change-of-pace guy, having to build and develop before being put in the starting lineup.
I’m sure it will play out the same way with CEH. They’ll want to get him on the field to make some plays, but I don’t think he’ll be heavily featured or overburdened. This line of thinking is particularly true this year, with the coronavirus limiting the ability of teams to work with players in the offseason.
Edwards-Helaire is a small back, so I doubt he’ll be used consistently in goal-line situations. And I think it’s fair to wonder about his production as a pass catcher. His hands are fine – 55 catches last year – but I read that there are some concerns about his pass protection. That will need to be figured out; they’ll have to get to the point where they trust him.
Kansas City has a couple of other running backs who right now are probably both well ahead of CEH in passing aptitude. Both Williams and DeAndre Washington are probably better in pass protection, and they’ve both been really good as receivers.
Around the league, 62 running backs have seen at least 40 pass targets over the last two years. These two, as luck would have it, are the two who have caught the highest percentage of balls thrown their way.
Again, not trashing Edwards-Helaire. He’ll probably contribute some splash plays. But to me, looks a lot more like a long-term investment rather than a player likely to put up big numbers in 2020.
| RUNNING BACK CATCH PERCENTAGES (last 2 years) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Tgt | No | Yards | Avg | TD | Pct |
| DeAndre Washington, Oak. | 42 | 37 | 301 | 8.1 | 0 | 88.1% |
| Damien Williams, K.C. | 61 | 53 | 373 | 7.0 | 4 | 86.9% |
| Matt Breida, S.F. | 53 | 46 | 381 | 8.3 | 3 | 86.8% |
| Jaylen Samuels, Pitt. | 86 | 73 | 504 | 6.9 | 4 | 84.9% |
| Dion Lewis, Ten. | 99 | 84 | 564 | 6.7 | 2 | 84.8% |
| LeVeon Bell, NYJ | 78 | 66 | 461 | 7.0 | 1 | 84.6% |
| Jacquizz Rodgers, T.B. | 45 | 38 | 304 | 8.0 | 0 | 84.4% |
| Mark Ingram, N.O.-Bal. | 56 | 47 | 417 | 8.9 | 6 | 83.9% |
| Jalen Richard, Oak. | 124 | 104 | 930 | 8.9 | 0 | 83.9% |
| Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 266 | 223 | 1872 | 8.4 | 10 | 83.8% |
| Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 77 | 64 | 433 | 6.8 | 4 | 83.1% |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 112 | 93 | 824 | 8.9 | 2 | 83.0% |
| Ito Smith, Atl. | 46 | 38 | 239 | 6.3 | 0 | 82.6% |
| Theo Riddick, Det. | 74 | 61 | 384 | 6.3 | 0 | 82.4% |
| Mike Davis, 3 tms | 50 | 41 | 236 | 5.8 | 1 | 82.0% |
| James Conner, Pitt. | 109 | 89 | 748 | 8.4 | 4 | 81.7% |
| Royce Freeman, Den. | 70 | 57 | 328 | 5.8 | 1 | 81.4% |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 161 | 131 | 1397 | 10.7 | 11 | 81.4% |
| Latavius Murray, Min.-N.O. | 69 | 56 | 376 | 6.7 | 1 | 81.2% |
| J.D. McKissic, Det. | 42 | 34 | 233 | 6.9 | 1 | 81.0% |
| Chris Carson, Sea. | 71 | 57 | 429 | 7.5 | 2 | 80.3% |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 202 | 162 | 1242 | 7.7 | 5 | 80.2% |
| Javorius Allen, Bal.-NYG | 45 | 36 | 205 | 5.7 | 2 | 80.0% |
| Kareem Hunt, K.C.-Cle. | 79 | 63 | 663 | 10.5 | 8 | 79.7% |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 63 | 50 | 509 | 10.2 | 3 | 79.4% |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 166 | 131 | 987 | 7.5 | 5 | 78.9% |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 42 | 33 | 305 | 9.2 | 2 | 78.6% |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 100 | 78 | 583 | 7.5 | 4 | 78.0% |
| Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 126 | 98 | 707 | 7.2 | 1 | 77.8% |
| Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 54 | 42 | 340 | 8.1 | 2 | 77.8% |
| Ronald Jones, T.B. | 49 | 38 | 342 | 9.0 | 0 | 77.6% |
| LeSean McCoy, Buf.-K.C. | 80 | 62 | 419 | 6.8 | 1 | 77.5% |
| Wendell Smallwood, Phi.-Was. | 48 | 37 | 294 | 7.9 | 2 | 77.1% |
| Nyheim Hines, Ind. | 139 | 107 | 745 | 7.0 | 2 | 77.0% |
| Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 195 | 150 | 1181 | 7.9 | 8 | 76.9% |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 65 | 50 | 563 | 11.3 | 2 | 76.9% |
| Jamaal Williams, G.B. | 86 | 66 | 463 | 7.0 | 5 | 76.7% |
| Dare Ogunbowale, T.B. | 46 | 35 | 286 | 8.2 | 0 | 76.1% |
| Melvin Gordon, LAC | 121 | 92 | 786 | 8.5 | 5 | 76.0% |
| Adrian Peterson, Was. | 49 | 37 | 350 | 9.5 | 1 | 75.5% |
| Jordan Howard, Chi.-Phi. | 40 | 30 | 214 | 7.1 | 1 | 75.0% |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 194 | 143 | 1159 | 8.1 | 6 | 73.7% |
| Phillip Lindsay, Den. | 95 | 70 | 437 | 6.2 | 1 | 73.7% |
| Chris Thompson, Was. | 113 | 83 | 646 | 7.8 | 1 | 73.5% |
| Duke Johnson, Cle.-Hou. | 124 | 91 | 839 | 9.2 | 6 | 73.4% |
| Devontae Booker, Den. | 60 | 44 | 332 | 7.5 | 0 | 73.3% |
| T.J. Yeldon, Jac.-Buf. | 93 | 68 | 611 | 9.0 | 4 | 73.1% |
| Kenyan Drake, Mia.-Ari. | 141 | 103 | 822 | 8.0 | 5 | 73.0% |
| James White, N.E. | 218 | 159 | 1396 | 8.8 | 12 | 72.9% |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 103 | 75 | 680 | 9.1 | 4 | 72.8% |
| Chase Edmonds, Ariz. | 44 | 32 | 208 | 6.5 | 1 | 72.7% |
| Marlon Mack, Ind. | 43 | 31 | 185 | 6.0 | 1 | 72.1% |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 78 | 56 | 427 | 7.6 | 2 | 71.8% |
| Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 74 | 53 | 456 | 8.6 | 6 | 71.6% |
| Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 91 | 65 | 452 | 7.0 | 0 | 71.4% |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 41 | 29 | 194 | 6.7 | 2 | 70.7% |
| Rex Burkhead, N.E. | 58 | 41 | 410 | 10.0 | 1 | 70.7% |
| David Johnson, Ariz. | 123 | 86 | 816 | 9.5 | 7 | 69.9% |
| Todd Gurley, LAR | 130 | 90 | 787 | 8.7 | 6 | 69.2% |
| C.J. Ham, Min. | 41 | 28 | 234 | 8.4 | 1 | 68.3% |
| Peyton Barber, T.B. | 53 | 36 | 207 | 5.8 | 2 | 67.9% |
| Ty Montgomery, 3 tms | 57 | 38 | 325 | 8.6 | 0 | 66.7% |
—Ian Allan