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Cole Kmet

Keep expectations modest for draft's top TE

Saw where the Giants picked up Evan Engram's fifth-year option yesterday. It was a no-brainer move. Engram has battled some injuries, but he's been a pretty productive receiver. Ever since he was drafted, in fact -- the exception that proves the rule about rookie tight ends not doing much.

The just-completed draft didn't have offer elite talent at the position. Cole Kmet was taken 11 picks into the second round, but he was taken by a team that's shown some poor judgment at the position in years, striking out both in free agency (Trey Burton, and probably Jimmy Graham) and the draft (2017 second-rounder Adam Shaheen). Had they not taken Kmet, would another team have selected him in the secound? Probably, but it's not certain.

After Kmet went, it was nearly 50 picks before another tight end was selected. The Patriots selected two players in the third round, Devin Asiasi out of UCLA and Dalton Keene out of Virginia Tech. Nobody needs to be reminded of the last time the Patriots used a couple of picks on tight ends in the first four rounds. One went on to be the subject of a Netflix documentary. The other had a few decent seasons before recently being dumped off to Tampa Bay for a draft pick.

Kmet played his college ball out of Notre Dame, which has produced some quality NFL tight ends of late: John Carlson, Kyle Rudolph, Tyler Eifert. But Chicago will probably be trying to make its Graham signing look good by featuring the veteran. With the Patriots, Asiasi looks best; better all-around game than Keene, and they selected him earlier. Maybe he starts and makes an impact right away; that was the case with Gronkowski.

But the reality is these guys seldom put up standout numbers as rookies. In the last decade, Engram is the only one to finish in the top 10 at his position. Over the last 20 years, just four other guys have done so: Jeremy Shockey, Gronkowski, John Carlson and Randy McMichael.

ROOKIE TIGHT ENDS, TOP-35 PRODUCTION, 2000-PRESENT
YearPlayerNoYdsTDRk
2002Jeremy Shockey, NYG7489423
2010Rob Gronkowski, N.E.42546105
2017Evan Engram, NYG6472265
2008John Carlson, Sea.5562757
2002Randy McMichael, Mia.3948549
2016Hunter Henry, S.D.36478811
2005Heath Miller, Pitt.39459611
2010Aaron Hernandez, N.E.45563613
2008Dustin Keller, NYJ48535314
2004Chris Cooley, Wash.37314614
2006Owen Daniels, Hou.34352514
2001Eric Johnson, S.F.40362315
2019Noah Fant, Den.40562115
2018Mark Andrews, Balt.34552316
2017O.J. Howard, T.B.26432616
2007Zach Miller, Oak.44444316
2001Alge Crumpler, 25330318
2003Antonio Gates, S.D.24389219
2018Dallas Goedert, Phil.33334420
2013Zach Ertz, Phil.36469420
2010Jermaine Gresham, Cin.52471421
2017George Kittle, S.F.43515221
2017David Njoku, Clev.32386422
2000Bubba Franks, G.B.34363122
2012Dwayne Allen, Ind.45521323
2013Jordan Reed, Wash.45499323
2010Jimmy Graham, N.O.31356523
2006Vernon Davis, S.F.20265323
2003Jason Witten, Dall.35347123
2008Martellus Bennett, Dall.20283424
2015Will Tye, NYG42464325
2003Dallas Clark, Ind.29340125
2013Mychal Rivera, Oak.38407426
2003L.J. Smith, Phil.27321127
2013Tyler Eifert, Cin.39445229
2014Jace Amaro, NYJ38345229
2015Clive Walford, Oak.28329330
2000Jermaine Wiggins, 2TM18207230
2019T.J. Hockenson, Det.32367031
2019Dawson Knox, Buff.28388032
2019Irv Smith, Min.36311133
2015Cameron Brate, T.B.23288335
2001Todd Heap, Balt.16206135
2016Austin Hooper, Atl.19271335
2019Kaden Smith, NYG31268235

2019 rookies are in bold. This is not to say Kmet, Asiasi and Keene can't have value. Note that eight other guys put up top-15 numbers, including Noah Fant last year. That's usually a starter in fantasy leagues.

But if you're selecting one of these players, it should probably be for long-term production -- not rookie impact.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index