The idea of a Super Bowl hangover is real. The only team in the last 25 years to return to a Super Bowl the year after losing it is the Patriots (following their upset loss to Philadelphia). That's a history the San Francisco 49ers are trying to buck. It's not off to a good start.
Deebo Samuel suffered a broken foot in workouts this week and underwent surgery yesterday. The linked article, from the team website, sounds ridiculously optimistic about the likelihood of Samuel making contributions early in the season. Officially, it's a 12-to-16 week timetable. Twelve weeks from right now and he wouldn't even step on a practice field prior to Week 1.
The upper limit of the timetable -- and considering this is a foot injury, which you don't want to rush a guy back from -- and he'd miss at least the first month of the season. So starting the season on the PUP list and missing at least the first six games seems to be a fairly reasonable guess. And that's if all goes well; there could be setbacks, and the team would probably be wise to err on the side of caution.
Samuel is a guy we've been pretty excited about for this season. He was the leading wide receiver a year ago, Emmanuel Sanders is gone, and the team passed the ball more often in the second half of the season. With Samuel being both a receiver and runner, he was set to get plenty of touches as one of the focal points of the offense. That's now on the shelf.
I've not only already drafted him in a couple of early best-ball leagues, but made decisions in a dynasty league based on him being available. I think that even if we assume the season proceeds on schedule, you need to kind of remove him from the equation for at least the first 4-6 weeks, and figure it might be the second half before you can consider having him available as a quality starter. If I were drafting today, I'd start seriously considering him around the 9th round.
So who will step up? I see three good candidates.
Brandon Aiyuk. The team's first-round pick was already probably the favorite for No. 2 duties. It will be a shortened preseason with no minicamps, working against all rookies, but the depth chart behind Samuel was pretty open and Aiyuk is a really talented guy who can do some of the same things. Most notably, he's a weapon after the catch. He averaged 18.3 yards per catch at Arizona State last year, his breakout season following N'Keal Harry's departure, catching 65 balls for 1,192 yards and 8 touchdowns. Kyle Shanahan was going to do some creative stuff with Aiyuk anyway, as much as the rookie was able to absorb most likely. Now he doesn't have much choice.
Jalen Hurd. San Francisco's third-round pick a year ago missed all of last season with a back injury. But he was already a decent candidate for No. 2 snaps, catching passes with Jimmy Garoppolo in workouts and getting some ink last week. Hurd is huge (6-5, 230) and might be most accurately viewed as an H-back; he was a running back for three seasons at Tennessee before finishing college at Baylor (and catching 69 passes for 946 yards). Nobody should be throwing a mid-round pick at Hurd with any hope of him being the team's No. 1 wideout, but a late-round choice with the idea of him emerging as a candidate for 5-6 weekly touches in both the run and pass game looks plausible.
Kendrick Bourne. Bourne already figured to be a big factor in the offense, at least in the red zone. In each of the last two seasons, he was regularly involved around the goal line. He shared the team lead with 5 touchdowns a year ago, and was one off the lead with 4 the previous season. Only George Kittle has more touchdowns among San Francisco receivers in that timeframe.
| 49ER RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS, 2018-2019 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Tgt | No | Yds | TD |
| 2019 | Kendrick Bourne | 44 | 30 | 358 | 5 |
| 2019 | George Kittle | 107 | 85 | 1053 | 5 |
| 2018 | George Kittle | 136 | 88 | 1377 | 5 |
| 2018 | Dante Pettis | 45 | 27 | 467 | 5 |
| 2018 | Kendrick Bourne | 66 | 42 | 487 | 4 |
| 2018 | Marquise Goodwin | 43 | 23 | 395 | 4 |
| 2019 | Deebo Samuel | 81 | 57 | 802 | 3 |
| 2019 | Emmanuel Sanders | 53 | 36 | 502 | 3 |
| 2019 | Raheem Mostert | 22 | 14 | 180 | 2 |
| 2019 | Ross Dwelley | 22 | 15 | 91 | 2 |
| 2019 | Dante Pettis | 24 | 11 | 109 | 2 |
| 2018 | Matt Breida | 31 | 27 | 261 | 2 |
| 2018 | Garrett Celek | 8 | 5 | 90 | 2 |
| 2019 | Tevin Coleman | 30 | 21 | 180 | 1 |
| 2019 | Matt Breida | 22 | 19 | 120 | 1 |
| 2019 | Jeff Wilson | 5 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| 2019 | Kyle Juszczyk | 24 | 20 | 239 | 1 |
| 2019 | Richie James | 10 | 6 | 165 | 1 |
| 2019 | Marquise Goodwin | 21 | 12 | 186 | 1 |
| 2018 | Kyle Juszczyk | 41 | 30 | 324 | 1 |
| 2018 | Trent Taylor | 41 | 26 | 215 | 1 |
| 2018 | Pierre Garcon | 46 | 24 | 286 | 1 |
| 2018 | Richie James | 14 | 9 | 130 | 1 |
Now Bourne wasn't otherwise a big part of the offense, averaging 55 targets and 36 catches. But seems reasonable he might have a slightly larger share of the offense with Samuel out. Maybe worth a late-round dart-throw, especially in standard or TD-only formats.
Others. San Francisco has four other wideouts on the roster worth mentioning, at least briefly. Last-season's sleeper Dante Pettis, Trent Taylor, Richie James and journeyman Travis Benjamin.
Pettis was supposed to maybe be the No. 1 a year ago. The second-rounder caught 5 touchdowns in 2018. But he landed in the doghouse last summer and wound up catching 11 passes all season. Wildly optimistic to think he gets another shot as long as Aiyuk and Hurd can walk and chew gum at the same time.
Taylor was expected to man the slot last season before missing the year with a, er, foot injury that ultimately required five surgeries. He's healthy now, and might actually be the initial starter in the slot. He's basically free in drafts and is probably best viewed as a very low-ceiling placeholder, but he might be a factor.
James is a small, former seventh-round pick who was another slot candidate last year. He's well down the list of realistic possibilities to get on the field, although Samuel's absence gives him a shot to make the team (especially if Deebo does land on the PUP list).
Benjamin figured to get some work as a deep threat, if he makes the team. He played in only five games for the Chargers last year. Unlikely to have a significant role if he even makes the team.
So basically it's Aiyuk (who will be the priciest in drafts), Hurd (who should be very cheap) and Bourne (same) who merit some consideration in deeper leagues. And I think you select Samuel if he falls far enough and you've got the bench spots to spare.
Last but not least, this is a negative for Jimmy Garoppolo. Whoever his No. 1 winds up being it will probably be someone who he'll be throwing to in an NFL game for the first time. At least he'll have George Kittle (who gets a boost; seems closer to Travis Kelce now). But Garoppolo's appeal as a No. 2 takes a hit. The entire passing game looks less appealing until Samuel gets back on the field.
--Andy Richardson