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Shanahan running backs

Mostert seeking trade from very favorable situation

So Raheem Mostert is requesting to be traded from the 49ers. He's looking for a new contract, currently slated to make about $3 million in 2020. He signed this deal just a year ago, but his agent argues that was primarily for his special teams contributions -- and now he's the clear No. 1 running back on the team.

"Disappointing that it would come to this for a guy who led all NFL running backs in yards per carry and helped lead them to the Super Bowl," says agent Brett Tessler. While Mostert certainly had a great season (and postseason) last year, I don't think Tessler should really lean on Mostert's yards per carry in Kyle Shanahan's offense. (It can also be pointed out that Tevin Coleman's divisional round game against Minnesota -- 105 yards and 2 TDs -- was as important in the team's Super Bowl run as Mostert's huge game against Green Bay a week later.)

While Mostert's 5.6 yards per carry last season was great, so was Matt Breida's (5.1) in the same offense. In Shanahan's last five years running an offense -- three in San Francisco, and two in Atlanta -- a running back has averaged at least 4.4 yards per attempt six times (minimum of 100 carries). That includes Breida doing it three times, Coleman once, and Devonta Freeman once. Collectively, Shanahan backs account for 6 percent of the NFL's 4.4-yards per carry seasons over that time frame.

RUNNING BACKS OVER 4.4 YARDS PER CARRY, 2015-2019
YearPlayerAttYdsAvgTD
2017Alvin Kamara, N.O.1207286.18
2016Mike Gillislee, Buff.1015775.78
2015Thomas Rawls, Sea.1478305.74
2019Raheem Mostert, S.F.1377725.68
2016Bilal Powell, NYJ1317225.53
2018Aaron Jones, G.B.1337285.58
2018Kerryon Johnson, Det.1186415.43
2016LeSean McCoy, Buff.23412675.413
2018Phillip Lindsay, Den.19210375.49
2019Gus Edwards, Balt.1337115.42
2018Matt Breida, S.F.1538145.33
2018Gus Edwards, Balt.1377185.22
2018Austin Ekeler, LAC1065545.23
2016Jordan Howard, Chi.25213135.26
2018Nick Chubb, Cle.1929965.28
2019Devin Singletary, Buff.1517755.12
2019Matt Breida, S.F.1236235.11
2016Mark Ingram, N.O.20510435.16
2019Derrick Henry, Ten.30315405.116
2015Ryan Mathews, Phil.1065395.16
2016Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.32216315.115
2018Melvin Gordon, LAC1758855.110
2019Mark Ingram, Balt.20210185.010
2019Nick Chubb, Cle.29814945.08
2018Saquon Barkley, NYG26113075.011
2018Christian McCaffrey, Car.21910985.07
2017Dion Lewis, N.E.1808965.06
2015Charles Sims, T.B.1075294.90
2018Joe Mixon, Cin.23711684.98
2018Derrick Henry, Ten.21510594.912
2015LeVeon Bell, Pitt.1135564.93
2016Jay Ajayi, Mia.26012724.98
2018Todd Gurley, LAR25612514.917
2017Mark Ingram, N.O.23011244.912
2017Kareem Hunt, K.C.27213274.98
2015Doug Martin, T.B.28814024.96
2016LeVeon Bell, Pitt.26112684.97
2017Kenyan Drake, Mia.1336444.83
2019Christian McCaffrey, Car.28713874.815
2015Todd Gurley, St.L.22911064.810
2016Isaiah Crowell, Cle.1989524.87
2019Kenyan Drake, 2TM1708174.88
2016Devonta Freeman, Atl.22710794.811
2018Tevin Coleman, Atl.1678004.84
2018Isaiah Crowell, NYJ1436854.86
2017Alfred Morris, Dall.1155474.81
2019Josh Jacobs, Oak.24211504.87
2015Giovani Bernard, Cin.1547304.72
2015C.J. Anderson, Den.1527204.75
2018Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.30414344.76
2017Todd Gurley, LAR27913054.713
2018Mark Ingram, N.O.1386454.76
2018Chris Carson, Sea.24711514.79
2018Marlon Mack, Ind.1959084.79
2019Alvin Kamara, N.O.1717974.75
2015David Johnson, Ariz.1255814.78
2018Lamar Miller, Hou.2109734.65
2015Mark Ingram, N.O.1667694.66
2018Frank Gore, Mia.1567224.60
2019Saquon Barkley, NYG21710034.66
2018Dalvin Cook, Min.1336154.62
2019Alexander Mattison, Min.1004624.61
2019LeSean McCoy, K.C.1014654.64
2019Aaron Jones, G.B.23610844.616
2017Alex Collins, Balt.2129734.66
2018Mike Davis, Sea.1125144.64
2019Miles Sanders, Phil.1798184.63
2015Darren McFadden, Dall.23910894.63
2016Carlos Hyde, S.F.2179884.66
2018Alvin Kamara, N.O.1948834.614
2018Kareem Hunt, K.C.1818244.67
2015Adrian Peterson, Min.32714854.511
2019Dalvin Cook, Min.25011354.513
2015DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.2009074.511
2018James Conner, Pitt.2159734.512
2019Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.30113574.512
2019Phillip Lindsay, Den.22410114.57
2015Lamar Miller, Mia.1948724.58
2019Damien Williams, K.C.1114984.55
2018Kenyan Drake, Mia.1205354.54
2018Sony Michel, N.E.2099314.56
2016Derrick Henry, Ten.1104904.55
2015Rashad Jennings, NYG1958634.43
2017LeGarrette Blount, Phil.1737664.42
2019Chris Carson, Sea.27812304.47
2019Marlon Mack, Ind.24710914.48
2015LeSean McCoy, Buff.2038954.43
2017Devonta Freeman, Atl.1968654.47
2019Jordan Howard, Phil.1195254.46
2016Tevin Coleman, Atl.1185204.48
2017Matt Breida, S.F.1054654.42
2016DeMarco Murray, Ten.29312874.49
2017Orleans Darkwa, NYG1717514.45
2019Carlos Hyde, Hou.24510704.46
2019Latavius Murray, N.O.1466374.45
2017Giovani Bernard, Cin.1054584.42
2019Leonard Fournette, Jac.26511524.43

So Mostert isn't the first back to have a nice year in this offense, and he won't be the last. Any thought that he's a special talent who can join a new team and start cranking out good seasons seems wildly optimistic, given his journeyman career before latching on in San Francisco.

Mostert's a hard runner in a good offense and (I think) is in line for a very nice season if this gets worked out. Most likely he's not going to be traded (I can't think of a team currently looking for a starting running back and also willing to pay that player the $5 million-ish salary he's reportedly seeking); he and San Francisco can perhaps reach some compromise that pays him a little more than Coleman is slated to make, which is $4.5 million.

If this dust-up causes Mostert to slide in drafts, I'll happily select him at a nice discount. Where's he gonna go and start? The Rams? Tampa Bay? Those teams have youngsters they like.

But the very slim chance of a holdout or departure will have me select Coleman a little bit earlier than before. (Though probably not as early as somebody else will, who's more alarmist about this story.) In this offense, a lot of different starting running backs could put up excellent numbers. It will likely be Mostert, but Coleman might be able to do it too. Using the magazine rankings, I'd be bumping Coleman up to around 41st, while Mostert falls about 5-6 spots (from 22nd).

--Andy Richardson

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