There are running backs angling for new contracts. Derrick Henry and Raheem Mostert have been in the news recently. And Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones and James Conner. But the big-picture odds are stacked against all of those guys.
Under the current labor deal (which will run through the upcoming decade) players are all assigned slotted contracts. The money you get for those first four years is pre-determined, and everybody gets an initial four-year contract. Those can’t be negiotated. For the first-round picks, the team also gets the ability to pick up a fifth-year option.
Only after four (sometimes five) years can a player reach true free agency, and for the rare cases, the team has the ability to kick the can down the road an additional year by using a franchise or transition tag.
It’s a system that works better for the other positions. With the running backs, the vast majority of careers are over before the player ever reaches the free market. And for the few elite running backs who become free agents, it’s fair to wonder if they’ve already played their best ball.
Kamara, Conner and Aaron Jones, for example – have those guys already played their best seasons? Probably (or at least maybe).
Consider the following chart, which shows the top 100 running backs of the last 20 years. For this one, I looked at the best career season of all running backs from the last 30 years. (I tossed out all other seasons). Then I skimmed off the top 100 seasons of the last 20 years.
Of this group, 63 of the seasons came in the first four years of a player’s career. So for almost two thirds of the players, that best season came before the player could have reached free agency. For just over a third of the players, the best came after those first four seasons. That includes LaDainian Tomlinson (pictured) who authored the best season of the last 20 years.
Only 11 of these 100 seasons were put together by running backs at least 30 years old.
It’s a young man’s position, and it’s hard for them to ever really hit the jackpot.
Note that for Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Jones and Conner, they’re all entering their fourth years. So if they sign extensions before the season begins, it’s with the team holding more of the cards. If any of those players wants to reach true free agency, they have to make it through the season without suffering some kind of career-altering injury (difficult at this punishing position). And they would have to then hope that the team simply didn’t push free agency back a year by using some kind of tag.
I wish the Player’s Association had done more to address the running back problem before agreeing to latest labor deal. It did not, so what we’ve had for the last decade is what we’ll continue to have for the foreseeable future.
On the chart below, players outside their first four years are tagged with dots. Players who were at least 30 at the end of the season are in bold.
CAREER-BEST SEASONS, RUNNING BACKS (last 20 years) | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yr | Age | Run | Rec | TD | PPR |
2006 | • LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 6 | 27 | 1,815 | 508 | 31 | 483.3 |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 3 | 23 | 1,387 | 1,005 | 19 | 471.2 |
2000 | • Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 7 | 27 | 1,359 | 830 | 26 | 459.9 |
2003 | • Priest Holmes, K.C. | 7 | 30 | 1,420 | 690 | 27 | 447.0 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 3 | 23 | 1,528 | 806 | 16 | 419.4 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 2 | 25 | 1,239 | 879 | 20 | 413.8 |
2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 2 | 22 | 1,709 | 594 | 18 | 403.3 |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 2 | 24 | 2,006 | 503 | 16 | 398.9 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 2 | 24 | 1,616 | 604 | 18 | 396.0 |
2003 | • Ahman Green, G.B. | 6 | 26 | 1,883 | 367 | 20 | 395.0 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 3 | 23 | 1,305 | 788 | 19 | 387.3 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1 | 21 | 1,307 | 721 | 15 | 385.8 |
2013 | • Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 6 | 27 | 1,287 | 693 | 19 | 382.0 |
2005 | • Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 6 | 28 | 1,880 | 78 | 28 | 378.8 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 4 | 24 | 1,364 | 704 | 15 | 376.9 |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 4 | 27 | 1,789 | 410 | 19 | 374.9 |
2007 | • Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 6 | 28 | 1,333 | 771 | 12 | 372.4 |
2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 4 | 25 | 1,853 | 363 | 17 | 370.6 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 2 | 22 | 1,361 | 854 | 11 | 370.5 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 4 | 26 | 1,845 | 416 | 13 | 361.1 |
2005 | • Tiki Barber, NYG | 9 | 30 | 1,860 | 530 | 11 | 361.0 |
2018 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 2 | 23 | 883 | 709 | 18 | 354.2 |
2012 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. | 6 | 27 | 2,097 | 217 | 13 | 351.4 |
2014 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 7 | 29 | 1,038 | 808 | 10 | 350.6 |
2002 | • Charlie Garner, Oak. | 9 | 30 | 962 | 941 | 11 | 347.3 |
2000 | • Eddie George, Ten. | 5 | 27 | 1,509 | 453 | 16 | 342.2 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 4 | 24 | 2,066 | 205 | 14 | 337.1 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 2 | 23 | 1,695 | 485 | 9 | 333.0 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 3 | 25 | 1,641 | 516 | 8 | 332.7 |
2013 | • LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 5 | 25 | 1,607 | 539 | 11 | 332.6 |
2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 3 | 23 | 1,434 | 567 | 9 | 331.1 |
2004 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 2 | 24 | 1,188 | 588 | 14 | 329.6 |
2009 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 4 | 24 | 1,391 | 374 | 16 | 325.5 |
2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 1 | 21 | 1,508 | 364 | 17 | 322.2 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 2 | 23 | 1,056 | 578 | 14 | 320.4 |
2004 | • Curtis Martin, NYJ | 10 | 31 | 1,697 | 245 | 14 | 319.2 |
2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 3 | 25 | 1,084 | 474 | 19 | 318.8 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1 | 23 | 1,454 | 472 | 12 | 313.6 |
2019 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 3 | 24 | 557 | 993 | 11 | 313.0 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 3 | 25 | 1,515 | 121 | 20 | 307.6 |
2014 | • Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 8 | 28 | 1,306 | 367 | 17 | 306.3 |
2010 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | 3 | 24 | 1,177 | 477 | 13 | 305.1 |
2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 2 | 24 | 1,438 | 309 | 14 | 301.7 |
2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 4 | 25 | 1,540 | 206 | 18 | 300.6 |
2006 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 3 | 26 | 1,494 | 222 | 16 | 298.6 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1 | 22 | 1,327 | 455 | 11 | 297.2 |
2005 | • LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 5 | 27 | 1,025 | 563 | 11 | 296.8 |
2013 | • Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 5 | 26 | 1,038 | 548 | 13 | 296.6 |
2019 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 3 | 24 | 1,135 | 519 | 13 | 296.4 |
2017 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 3 | 24 | 1,105 | 476 | 12 | 288.1 |
2017 | • Mark Ingram, N.O. | 7 | 28 | 1,124 | 416 | 12 | 284.0 |
2018 | James Conner, Pitt. | 2 | 23 | 973 | 497 | 13 | 284.0 |
2000 | • Robert Smith, Min. | 8 | 28 | 1,521 | 348 | 10 | 282.9 |
2008 | • Michael Turner, Atl. | 5 | 26 | 1,699 | 41 | 17 | 282.0 |
2000 | Mike Anderson, Den. | 1 | 27 | 1,487 | 169 | 15 | 280.6 |
2008 | • Thomas Jones, NYJ | 9 | 30 | 1,312 | 207 | 15 | 277.9 |
2011 | • Darren Sproles, N.O. | 7 | 28 | 603 | 710 | 10 | 277.3 |
2018 | • James White, N.E. | 5 | 26 | 425 | 751 | 12 | 276.6 |
2014 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 2 | 24 | 1,139 | 427 | 13 | 276.6 |
2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 2 | 24 | 1,072 | 364 | 15 | 276.6 |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1 | 22 | 1,282 | 377 | 10 | 275.9 |
2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 3 | 23 | 1,157 | 507 | 10 | 273.4 |
2006 | Reggie Bush, N.O. | 1 | 21 | 565 | 742 | 9 | 272.7 |
2004 | • Corey Dillon, N.E. | 8 | 30 | 1,635 | 103 | 13 | 268.8 |
2019 | Leonard Fournette, Jac. | 3 | 24 | 1,152 | 522 | 3 | 261.4 |
2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 3 | 25 | 1,244 | 459 | 8 | 261.3 |
2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 2 | 24 | 1,494 | 278 | 8 | 261.2 |
2000 | • Lamar Smith, Mia. | 7 | 30 | 1,139 | 201 | 16 | 261.0 |
2002 | • Duce Staley, Phil. | 6 | 27 | 1,029 | 541 | 8 | 258.0 |
2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1 | 24 | 1,613 | 77 | 13 | 258.0 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 1 | 22 | 950 | 367 | 12 | 254.7 |
2000 | Warrick Dunn, T.B. | 4 | 25 | 1,133 | 422 | 9 | 253.5 |
2003 | • Moe Williams, Min. | 8 | 29 | 745 | 644 | 8 | 251.9 |
2010 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | 4 | 24 | 1,235 | 314 | 8 | 251.9 |
2005 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 4 | 26 | 1,458 | 90 | 12 | 249.8 |
2000 | • James Stewart, Det. | 6 | 29 | 1,184 | 287 | 11 | 249.1 |
2014 | • Justin Forsett, Balt. | 7 | 29 | 1,266 | 263 | 8 | 246.9 |
2010 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 3 | 23 | 1,273 | 167 | 13 | 245.0 |
2018 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 2 | 22 | 1,168 | 296 | 9 | 243.4 |
2015 | • Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 7 | 30 | 336 | 755 | 9 | 243.1 |
2006 | • Ladell Betts, Was. | 5 | 27 | 1,154 | 445 | 5 | 242.9 |
2007 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 3 | 24 | 975 | 282 | 12 | 241.7 |
2019 | Chris Carson, Sea. | 3 | 25 | 1,230 | 266 | 9 | 240.6 |
2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 2 | 24 | 1,091 | 455 | 6 | 240.6 |
2018 | Tarik Cohen, Chi. | 2 | 23 | 444 | 725 | 8 | 240.0 |
2000 | Michael Pittman, Ariz. | 3 | 25 | 719 | 579 | 6 | 238.8 |
2002 | Michael Bennett, Min. | 2 | 24 | 1,296 | 351 | 6 | 237.7 |
2009 | Ryan Grant, G.B. | 4 | 27 | 1,253 | 197 | 11 | 236.0 |
2017 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 4 | 27 | 938 | 350 | 8 | 235.8 |
2016 | • LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 7 | 30 | 1,161 | 38 | 18 | 234.9 |
2007 | • Willis McGahee, Balt. | 5 | 26 | 1,207 | 231 | 8 | 234.8 |
2013 | • Fred Jackson, Buff. | 8 | 32 | 890 | 387 | 10 | 234.7 |
2015 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 4 | 24 | 872 | 397 | 10 | 233.9 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1 | 22 | 1,313 | 298 | 7 | 232.1 |
2001 | • Antowain Smith, N.E. | 5 | 29 | 1,157 | 192 | 13 | 231.9 |
2007 | • Earnest Graham, T.B. | 5 | 27 | 898 | 324 | 10 | 231.2 |
2006 | Kevin Jones, Det. | 3 | 24 | 689 | 520 | 8 | 229.9 |
2006 | • Chester Taylor, Min. | 5 | 27 | 1,216 | 288 | 6 | 228.4 |
2004 | Reuben Droughns, Den. | 4 | 26 | 1,240 | 241 | 8 | 228.1 |
2001 | Dominic Rhodes, Ind. | 1 | 22 | 1,104 | 224 | 10 | 226.8 |
—Ian Allan