All of the revised and updated individual player projections are included in the update that went out this morning. But it also makes sense to take a step back and look at the big picture – what offenses will score the most points and gain the most yards?
We’ve got Kansas City, Baltimore and New Orleans as the three highest-scoring offenses on our board. Dallas and Seattle are a notch back, projecting to score just short of 46 touchdowns each, and those grades might be a little conservative. The Seahawks (offense only) have scored 50 and 46 touchdowns the last two years. Dallas has an off year in 2018, with just 35 touchdowns, but has scored 49, 40 and 48 touchdowns in its last three other seasons (that’s in order – 48 TDs last year).
Our complete and revised team totals …
TEAM TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Offense | TDP | TDR | Total |
Kansas City | 39.7 | 16.6 | 56.3 |
Baltimore | 32.6 | 17.6 | 50.2 |
New Orleans | 34.1 | 13.9 | 48.0 |
Dallas | 29.3 | 16.6 | 45.9 |
Seattle | 31.7 | 14.2 | 45.9 |
Indianapolis | 28.0 | 17.3 | 45.3 |
San Francisco | 27.7 | 16.6 | 44.3 |
Tampa Bay | 30.2 | 14.1 | 44.3 |
New England | 24.3 | 19.7 | 44.0 |
Philadelphia | 28.8 | 15.0 | 43.8 |
Green Bay | 27.0 | 16.5 | 43.5 |
Tennessee | 26.6 | 16.6 | 43.2 |
Arizona | 24.8 | 17.3 | 42.1 |
Minnesota | 24.8 | 16.8 | 41.6 |
Cleveland | 24.0 | 16.8 | 40.8 |
Pittsburgh | 28.5 | 12.0 | 40.5 |
Atlanta | 29.9 | 10.4 | 40.3 |
LA Rams | 23.5 | 16.6 | 40.2 |
Houston | 25.6 | 13.9 | 39.5 |
Detroit | 28.6 | 10.2 | 38.9 |
NY Giants | 23.2 | 14.1 | 37.3 |
Buffalo | 24.2 | 12.8 | 37.0 |
Las Vegas | 23.8 | 13.0 | 36.8 |
Denver | 22.9 | 12.2 | 35.0 |
Carolina | 19.8 | 13.4 | 33.3 |
Chicago | 21.9 | 11.4 | 33.3 |
Cincinnati | 22.1 | 11.2 | 33.3 |
LA Chargers | 20.6 | 12.5 | 33.1 |
NY Jets | 24.6 | 7.8 | 32.5 |
Jacksonville | 23.8 | 7.2 | 31.0 |
Miami | 21.8 | 8.6 | 30.4 |
Washington | 18.9 | 11.5 | 30.4 |
For rushing production, we’ve got the Ravens, Patriots and Colts projecting to lead the way, with a bunch of other solid teams in the top 10. It’s easy to feel comfortable with all of those teams. They all come with some combination of good personnel, mobile quarterbacks or a coaching staff with a strong run-oriented mindset. It will be a surprise if any of those top-10 teams finishes below-average in rushing.
On the other end of the table, it’s hard to envision any of the teams in the bottom 25 percent (the final eight teams) finishing above-average in rushing.
Teams are ordered here using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards. All of the figures are of the per-game variety.
TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Offense | Yards | TDR | Pts/G |
Baltimore | 165 | 1.10 | 23.1 |
New England | 128 | 1.23 | 20.2 |
Indianapolis | 128 | 1.08 | 19.3 |
Cleveland | 129 | 1.05 | 19.2 |
Tennessee | 128 | 1.04 | 19.0 |
Minnesota | 126 | 1.05 | 18.9 |
Dallas | 125 | 1.04 | 18.7 |
San Francisco | 120 | 1.04 | 18.2 |
Arizona | 116 | 1.08 | 18.1 |
Seattle | 127 | .89 | 18.0 |
Philadelphia | 120 | .94 | 17.6 |
Green Bay | 113 | 1.03 | 17.5 |
Kansas City | 112 | 1.04 | 17.4 |
Buffalo | 126 | .80 | 17.4 |
LA Rams | 110 | 1.04 | 17.2 |
Houston | 119 | .87 | 17.1 |
NY Giants | 115 | .88 | 16.8 |
New Orleans | 115 | .87 | 16.7 |
LA Chargers | 120 | .78 | 16.7 |
Las Vegas | 115 | .81 | 16.4 |
Denver | 111 | .76 | 15.7 |
Carolina | 106 | .84 | 15.6 |
Cincinnati | 112 | .70 | 15.4 |
Pittsburgh | 102 | .75 | 14.7 |
Detroit | 107 | .64 | 14.5 |
Tampa Bay | 91 | .88 | 14.4 |
Washington | 100 | .72 | 14.3 |
Chicago | 97 | .71 | 14.0 |
Atlanta | 88 | .65 | 12.7 |
Jacksonville | 97 | .45 | 12.4 |
Miami | 89 | .54 | 12.1 |
NY Jets | 92 | .49 | 12.1 |
For passing production, we’ve got Kansas City in the top spot, followed by three NFC South teams (Saints, Falcons, Bucs). Carolina has to play seven games against those teams, so if we’re running a contest to pick the defense that will allow the most passing yards, the Panthers are the team I want.
Washington, Carolina and the Chargers project to have the least productive passing games.
The scoring system here is slightly different than how they’re usually listed. I’m going with the quarterback’s perspective this time, with 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 passing yards. I’m also tossing in the interceptions (subtracting 1 point for each).
TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Offense | Yards | TD | Int | Pts |
Kansas City | 305 | 2.48 | .43 | 24.7 |
New Orleans | 280 | 2.13 | .43 | 22.1 |
Atlanta | 300 | 1.87 | .87 | 21.6 |
Tampa Bay | 278 | 1.89 | .77 | 20.7 |
Seattle | 260 | 1.98 | .42 | 20.5 |
Detroit | 280 | 1.79 | .67 | 20.5 |
Dallas | 272 | 1.83 | .67 | 20.3 |
Philadelphia | 264 | 1.80 | .55 | 19.9 |
Pittsburgh | 275 | 1.78 | 1.03 | 19.8 |
Indianapolis | 261 | 1.75 | .81 | 19.2 |
San Francisco | 261 | 1.73 | .85 | 19.1 |
Green Bay | 252 | 1.69 | .30 | 19.1 |
Baltimore | 226 | 2.04 | .45 | 19.0 |
LA Rams | 277 | 1.47 | .93 | 18.8 |
Las Vegas | 259 | 1.49 | .50 | 18.4 |
Arizona | 253 | 1.55 | .80 | 18.1 |
Minnesota | 245 | 1.55 | .47 | 18.0 |
Tennessee | 238 | 1.66 | .69 | 17.9 |
Houston | 243 | 1.60 | .85 | 17.7 |
Jacksonville | 242 | 1.49 | .77 | 17.3 |
New England | 235 | 1.52 | .75 | 17.1 |
Cleveland | 239 | 1.50 | .94 | 17.0 |
NY Jets | 236 | 1.54 | .97 | 17.0 |
Buffalo | 230 | 1.51 | .72 | 16.8 |
Cincinnati | 244 | 1.38 | .97 | 16.8 |
NY Giants | 237 | 1.45 | .97 | 16.7 |
Denver | 233 | 1.43 | .96 | 16.4 |
Miami | 234 | 1.36 | .94 | 16.2 |
Chicago | 228 | 1.37 | .75 | 16.1 |
LA Chargers | 220 | 1.29 | .60 | 15.6 |
Carolina | 218 | 1.24 | .80 | 15.1 |
Washington | 224 | 1.18 | .95 | 15.0 |
—Ian Allan