When selecting players for your fantasy roster, it makes sense to look at the individual talent – what he’s done in the past, where he’s at in his career, and how he fits into his team’s offense. But it also makes sense to look at the quality of his team in general. The better teams tend to generate more yards and touchdowns, and it’s usually best to lean towards the players on those franchises.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, for example, looks like a compelling choice in Kansas City. He would not look particularly good if he had been drafted by Jacksonville. Supporting cast is a huge part of the equation.
With that in mind, let’s turn the focus for a moment away from the individuals and instead shine it on the teams themselves. Which offenses are going to tend to thrive, and which will struggle?
If we look just as touchdowns, I’ve got Kansas City as the top offense. I’ve had them up there all along. On my board, I’ve got them scoring 6 more touchdowns than any other team. In my most-recent projections, I have added some to the Ravens. After scoring 58 touchdowns a year ago, they’re a clear regression candidate, but I think I’ve been a little too pessimistic with them. I’ve now moved them up to almost 51 touchdowns, making them the clear No. 2. With teams having had limited practice time, I’m not sure defenses will have made great progress at figuring out how to slow them down.
Others in the top 5: Saints, Cowboys, Seahawks.
At the other end of the spectrum, I think the bad offenses look pretty apparent. Jacksonville, Washington, Miami. I’m not sure which will wind up down in that No. 32 spot, but they’re all looking pretty iffy. I have decreased the scoring slightly for all of those teams, moving them down to around 30 TDs.
If we’re 100 percent confident these teams will be the worst, it would be logical to move them down even a little more. In the last five years, 32 offenses have generated fewer than 30 touchdowns in a season – including at least six teams four years in a row. If you’re willing to lock in with 100 percent certainty that those three teams are bad, then it would make sense to move them down to something like 27-28 TDs.
Rankings here based on each team playing 16 games.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Kansas City | 39.8 | 16.6 | 56.5 |
| Baltimore | 32.6 | 18.1 | 50.7 |
| New Orleans | 34.1 | 13.9 | 48.0 |
| Dallas | 29.8 | 16.8 | 46.6 |
| Seattle | 32.0 | 14.2 | 46.2 |
| Indianapolis | 27.8 | 17.3 | 45.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 30.9 | 13.8 | 44.6 |
| San Francisco | 27.7 | 16.6 | 44.3 |
| New England | 24.3 | 19.7 | 44.0 |
| Green Bay | 27.0 | 16.5 | 43.5 |
| Tennessee | 26.6 | 16.6 | 43.2 |
| Philadelphia | 28.2 | 14.1 | 42.2 |
| Arizona | 24.6 | 17.3 | 41.9 |
| Minnesota | 24.6 | 16.6 | 41.3 |
| Cleveland | 24.0 | 16.8 | 40.8 |
| Pittsburgh | 28.6 | 12.0 | 40.6 |
| Atlanta | 29.8 | 10.6 | 40.3 |
| LA Rams | 23.5 | 16.6 | 40.2 |
| Houston | 25.6 | 13.9 | 39.5 |
| Detroit | 28.6 | 10.2 | 38.9 |
| Las Vegas | 23.8 | 12.8 | 36.6 |
| NY Giants | 23.0 | 13.3 | 36.3 |
| Buffalo | 23.8 | 12.3 | 36.2 |
| Denver | 23.2 | 11.8 | 35.0 |
| Cincinnati | 22.2 | 11.2 | 33.4 |
| Chicago | 21.9 | 11.4 | 33.3 |
| Carolina | 19.8 | 13.3 | 33.1 |
| LA Chargers | 20.5 | 12.3 | 32.8 |
| NY Jets | 24.6 | 7.5 | 32.2 |
| Miami | 21.8 | 8.6 | 30.4 |
| Washington | 18.9 | 11.5 | 30.4 |
| Jacksonville | 23.5 | 6.6 | 30.1 |
If we’re looking solely at passing, I’ve got Kansas City, Atlanta and New Orleans as the top 3 teams (with Tampa Bay just a notch behind that group).
I’m comfortable with my bottom 4: Washington, Carolina, Chicago and the Chargers. I don’t think we want to be tending to selecting quarterbacks and pass catchers from those teams. (That said, I have selected Terry McLaurin multiple times – do as I say, not as I do).
Rankings assume 6 points for TD passes and 1 for 10 passing yards.
| TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| Kansas City | 305 | 2.49 | 45.4 |
| Atlanta | 300 | 1.86 | 41.2 |
| New Orleans | 280 | 2.13 | 40.8 |
| Tampa Bay | 285 | 1.93 | 40.1 |
| Detroit | 282 | 1.79 | 38.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 278 | 1.79 | 38.5 |
| Dallas | 273 | 1.86 | 38.5 |
| Seattle | 260 | 2.00 | 38.0 |
| LA Rams | 275 | 1.47 | 36.3 |
| Philadelphia | 257 | 1.76 | 36.3 |
| Indianapolis | 258 | 1.74 | 36.2 |
| San Francisco | 258 | 1.73 | 36.2 |
| Green Bay | 252 | 1.69 | 35.3 |
| Arizona | 255 | 1.54 | 34.7 |
| Baltimore | 225 | 2.04 | 34.7 |
| Las Vegas | 257 | 1.49 | 34.6 |
| Houston | 244 | 1.60 | 34.0 |
| Tennessee | 238 | 1.66 | 33.8 |
| Minnesota | 244 | 1.54 | 33.6 |
| Cleveland | 237 | 1.50 | 32.7 |
| NY Giants | 240 | 1.44 | 32.6 |
| Jacksonville | 238 | 1.47 | 32.6 |
| Cincinnati | 242 | 1.39 | 32.5 |
| NY Jets | 233 | 1.54 | 32.5 |
| Denver | 238 | 1.45 | 32.5 |
| New England | 233 | 1.52 | 32.4 |
| Buffalo | 229 | 1.49 | 31.8 |
| Miami | 232 | 1.36 | 31.4 |
| Chicago | 227 | 1.37 | 30.9 |
| LA Chargers | 220 | 1.28 | 29.7 |
| Carolina | 218 | 1.24 | 29.2 |
| Washington | 218 | 1.18 | 28.9 |
For the lay of the land for team rushing, I think it looks very clear. I am very comfortable with the top 8 offenses on the list below – Ravens, Patriots, Colts, Browns, Titans, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers. Those are teams that are really going to run it. New England shows up at No. 2, which will seem high to many (perhaps most). I actually think Indianapolis and Cleveland will have better traditional running games, but they have less mobile quarterbacks. New England will get some yards out of Cam Newton. With the Colts having Philip Rivers under center, they might finish outside the top 5 in rushing even if their running backs combine for more rushing yards than the running backs on any other team.
Similarly at the other end, I’m extremely confident with those bottom-4 teams. Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins, Falcons. No way are any of those teams not ranking in the bottom 10 in rushing – there will be no surprise running game coming out of that group.
Rankings here assume 6 points for rushing touchdowns and 1 for every 10 rushing yards.
| TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Baltimore | 167 | 1.13 | 23.5 |
| New England | 127 | 1.23 | 20.1 |
| Indianapolis | 128 | 1.08 | 19.3 |
| Cleveland | 129 | 1.05 | 19.2 |
| Tennessee | 128 | 1.04 | 19.0 |
| Minnesota | 126 | 1.04 | 18.8 |
| Dallas | 125 | 1.05 | 18.8 |
| San Francisco | 121 | 1.04 | 18.3 |
| Arizona | 116 | 1.08 | 18.1 |
| Seattle | 126 | .89 | 17.9 |
| Kansas City | 111 | 1.04 | 17.3 |
| Green Bay | 110 | 1.03 | 17.2 |
| Houston | 119 | .87 | 17.1 |
| LA Rams | 108 | 1.04 | 17.0 |
| Buffalo | 122 | .77 | 16.8 |
| New Orleans | 115 | .87 | 16.7 |
| Philadelphia | 112 | .88 | 16.5 |
| Las Vegas | 115 | .80 | 16.3 |
| NY Giants | 112 | .83 | 16.2 |
| LA Chargers | 115 | .77 | 16.1 |
| Carolina | 105 | .83 | 15.5 |
| Denver | 110 | .74 | 15.4 |
| Cincinnati | 112 | .70 | 15.4 |
| Pittsburgh | 103 | .75 | 14.8 |
| Detroit | 106 | .64 | 14.4 |
| Washington | 100 | .72 | 14.3 |
| Tampa Bay | 90 | .86 | 14.2 |
| Chicago | 97 | .71 | 14.0 |
| Atlanta | 88 | .66 | 12.8 |
| Miami | 88 | .54 | 12.0 |
| NY Jets | 92 | .47 | 12.0 |
| Jacksonville | 92 | .41 | 11.7 |
—Ian Allan