At what point do we agree that Justin Herbert is for real? He’s been starting for a month, and he’s looking like he’s going to be a good quarterback for a lot of years.
Herbert has good size and mobility, and he’s connected on a lot of downfield passes. He’s not a typical rookie, where they’re trying to protect him by having him throw a lot of safe, check-down type passes. He’s challenging defenses with longer passes, and he’s shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield even when scrambling around – his touchdown to Keenan Allen on Monday night was a beauty (rolling right to escape pressure, then firing a laser).
If we’re walking into a dynasty draft today (with teams allowed to keep players indefinitely) I would think Herbert would be one of the first few quarterbacks chosen. He’s not as good today as Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but he’s a lot younger than those guys. Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson have done some really cool things, but are they still going to be elite quarterbacks in five years (are their playing styles sustainable)?
Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen have thicker NFL resumes, but are they still going to be better than Herbert two years from now? Watson looks like more of a durability risk, while Allen has had some issues with accuracy and decision making.
In my eyes, Herbert is right there with Joe Burrow. These guys are just rookies, but they look like they’re going to be very good quarterbacks for years and years. In a dynasty format, I would think they would both need to be among the first 10 quarterbacks chosen.
For dynasty purposes, I last checked in on quarterbacks a month ago. Since that time, the biggest faller would be Matt Ryan, who drops all of the way out of the top 20. He’s 35, and I think they’re blowing things up in Atlanta now. I don’t think he’ll be starting there next year. (If not, I wonder if Ryan might re-unite with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, given Jimmy Garoppolo’s struggles.)
I haven’t dropped Dak Prescott as far. He’ll miss the rest of this season, but I’m assuming he’ll be healthy and starting for Dallas in 2021, with the potential for top-5 numbers.
I turn my attention to long-term rankings each Saturday, rotating between the four major position. I hit the wide receivers last week, and next Saturday, it will be back to the running backs. (To access previous lists, use the “Past Issues” link on the right side of the page.)
|DYNASTY LEAGUES; QUARTERBACKS|
|6.||CIN||• Joe Burrow||23|
|7.||LAC||• Justin Herbert||22|
|18.||MIA||• Tua Tagovailoa||22|
|33.||GB||• Jordan Love||21|
|42.||PHI||• Jalen Hurts||21|