At what point do we agree that Justin Herbert is for real? He’s been starting for a month, and he’s looking like he’s going to be a good quarterback for a lot of years.

Herbert has good size and mobility, and he’s connected on a lot of downfield passes. He’s not a typical rookie, where they’re trying to protect him by having him throw a lot of safe, check-down type passes. He’s challenging defenses with longer passes, and he’s shown the ability to keep his eyes downfield even when scrambling around – his touchdown to Keenan Allen on Monday night was a beauty (rolling right to escape pressure, then firing a laser).

If we’re walking into a dynasty draft today (with teams allowed to keep players indefinitely) I would think Herbert would be one of the first few quarterbacks chosen. He’s not as good today as Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers, but he’s a lot younger than those guys. Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson have done some really cool things, but are they still going to be elite quarterbacks in five years (are their playing styles sustainable)?

Deshaun Watson and Josh Allen have thicker NFL resumes, but are they still going to be better than Herbert two years from now? Watson looks like more of a durability risk, while Allen has had some issues with accuracy and decision making.

In my eyes, Herbert is right there with Joe Burrow. These guys are just rookies, but they look like they’re going to be very good quarterbacks for years and years. In a dynasty format, I would think they would both need to be among the first 10 quarterbacks chosen.

For dynasty purposes, I last checked in on quarterbacks a month ago. Since that time, the biggest faller would be Matt Ryan, who drops all of the way out of the top 20. He’s 35, and I think they’re blowing things up in Atlanta now. I don’t think he’ll be starting there next year. (If not, I wonder if Ryan might re-unite with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, given Jimmy Garoppolo’s struggles.)

I haven’t dropped Dak Prescott as far. He’ll miss the rest of this season, but I’m assuming he’ll be healthy and starting for Dallas in 2021, with the potential for top-5 numbers.

I turn my attention to long-term rankings each Saturday, rotating between the four major position. I hit the wide receivers last week, and next Saturday, it will be back to the running backs. (To access previous lists, use the “Past Issues” link on the right side of the page.)

1.KCPatrick Mahomes24
2.HOUDeshaun Watson24
3.SEARussell Wilson31
4.BALLamar Jackson23
5.BUFJosh Allen24
6.CIN• Joe Burrow23
7.LAC• Justin Herbert22
8.ARIKyler Murray 22
9.GBAaron Rodgers36
10.DETMatthew Stafford32
11.LARJared Goff25
12.NECam Newton31
13.DALDak Prescott26
14.PHICarson Wentz27
15.JACGardner Minshew 25
16.CLEBaker Mayfield25
17.LVDerek Carr29
18.MIA• Tua Tagovailoa22
19.NYGDaniel Jones 23
20.MINKirk Cousins31
21.TENRyan Tannehill31
22.PITBen Roethlisberger38
23.TBTom Brady42
24.CARTeddy Bridgewater27
25.ATLMatt Ryan35
26.NODrew Brees41
27.DALAndy Dalton32
28.DENDrew Lock 23
29.NYJSam Darnold23
30.CHINick Foles31
31.NOTaysom Hill29
32.SFJimmy Garoppolo28
33.GB• Jordan Love21
34.MIARyan Fitzpatrick37
35.WASKyle Allen24
36.INDPhilip Rivers38
37.WASDwayne Haskins 23
38.INDJacoby Brissett27
39.SFC.J. Beathard26
40.NOJameis Winston26
41.CHIMitchell Trubisky25
42.PHI• Jalen Hurts21
43.CLECase Keenum32
44.LACTyrod Taylor30
45.LVMarcus Mariota26
46.NEJarrett Stidham 23
47.KCChad Henne35
48.NYJJoe Flacco35
49.SFNick Mullens25
50.BALRobert Griffin30

—Ian Allan