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Team projections

Re-stacking the board

Looking at top teams for final 11 weeks of the season

Earlier in the day, we released the revised player projections – rankings as if you were walking into a draft today. But it can also be useful to take a step back and consider the quality of teams in generals. That is, forget about the individual players and focus instead on which teams will gain the most yards and score the most points.

On these, teams don’t get credit for what they’ve already done. Instead the focus is on what’s coming. At the same time, if a team has been struggling, that’s good evidence that it probably won’t be lighting up the league in November and December. The Jets and Giants, for example, each have scored only 6 TDs in six games. We might be overly optimistic in forecasting that they would score 27 and 24.5 TDs if we were starting a new 16-game season today.

As usual, we look at the numbers in three chunks.

For touchdowns (offense only) we’ve got the Seahawks, Packers and Kansas City as the three three highest-scoring teams, and Washington and Jacksonville joining the two New York teams at the bottom.

For these one, we’re presenting the numbers as if we were just starting a 16-game season. When you see a team projected at 48 touchdowns and above, that’s 3 TDs per week.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
RkTeamPassRunTotal
1Seattle41.915.057.0
2Green Bay35.718.454.1
3Kansas City37.615.553.1
4New Orleans32.019.551.5
5Pittsburgh33.916.650.6
6Tampa Bay34.415.549.9
7LA Rams26.721.648.3
8Minnesota26.421.147.5
9Tennessee29.417.947.4
10Buffalo34.411.746.1
11Arizona25.320.846.1
12New England20.025.445.4
13Dallas28.017.145.1
14Cleveland25.319.845.1
15Baltimore26.417.644.0
16Detroit29.114.443.5
17Las Vegas29.813.343.0
18Houston31.210.942.1
19San Francisco24.816.641.4
20Atlanta27.413.641.0
21LA Chargers27.211.238.4
22Philadelphia24.313.137.4
23Carolina21.116.337.4
24Indianapolis21.614.936.5
25Miami24.311.736.0
26Chicago25.88.834.6
27Cincinnati23.710.434.1
28Denver21.612.033.6
29Jacksonville26.76.733.4
30Washington20.812.633.4
31NY Giants20.36.727.0
32NY Jets19.25.324.5

For passing production, I’ve got Seattle and Kansas City at the top, with very little difference between Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Green Bay. At the bottom, I’ve got New England and the two New York teams.

Scoring here assumes 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
RkTeamYardsTDPPts
1Seattle2882.6244.5
2Kansas City2902.3543.1
3Buffalo2752.1540.4
4Tampa Bay2752.1540.4
5Green Bay2702.2340.4
6New Orleans2802.0040.0
7Houston2801.9539.7
8Las Vegas2721.8638.4
9Pittsburgh2552.1238.2
10Dallas2751.7538.0
11Atlanta2701.7137.3
12Jacksonville2701.6737.0
13LA Rams2681.6736.8
14LA Chargers2651.7036.7
15Detroit2551.8236.4
16Tennessee2501.8436.0
17Minnesota2551.6535.4
18Cincinnati2621.4835.1
19Carolina2621.3234.1
20San Francisco2471.5534.0
21Philadelphia2451.5233.6
22Arizona2401.5833.5
23Chicago2351.6133.2
24Miami2351.5232.6
25Indianapolis2351.3531.6
26Denver2251.3530.6
27Washington2271.3030.5
28Cleveland2101.5830.5
29Baltimore2051.6530.4
30NY Giants2121.2728.8
31New England2101.2528.5
32NY Jets2051.2027.7

For rushing production, I’ve got New England, Baltimore and Minnesota as the best. At the bottom, I’ve got Jacksonville, Chicago and the two New York teams.

Scoring here assumes 6 points for touchdowns (rushing only) and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
RkTeamYardsTDRPts
1New England1651.5926.0
2Baltimore1701.1023.6
3Minnesota1421.3222.1
4Cleveland1451.2421.9
5Arizona1351.3021.3
6LA Rams1301.3521.1
7Tennessee1351.1220.2
8New Orleans1181.2219.1
9Kansas City128.9718.6
10Pittsburgh1221.0418.4
11Green Bay1141.1518.3
12San Francisco1181.0418.0
13Dallas1101.0717.4
14Carolina1121.0217.3
15Seattle114.9417.0
16Detroit115.9016.9
17Tampa Bay110.9716.8
18Las Vegas118.8316.8
19Indianapolis104.9316.0
20Philadelphia108.8215.7
21LA Chargers115.7015.7
22Denver110.7515.5
23Atlanta102.8515.3
24Houston105.6814.6
25Buffalo95.7313.9
26Miami92.7313.6
27Cincinnati95.6513.4
28Washington85.7913.2
29NY Giants93.4211.8
30NY Jets95.3311.5
31Chicago80.5511.3
32Jacksonville85.4211.0

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index