Earlier in the day, we released the revised player projections – rankings as if you were walking into a draft today. But it can also be useful to take a step back and consider the quality of teams in generals. That is, forget about the individual players and focus instead on which teams will gain the most yards and score the most points.
On these, teams don’t get credit for what they’ve already done. Instead the focus is on what’s coming. At the same time, if a team has been struggling, that’s good evidence that it probably won’t be lighting up the league in November and December. The Jets and Giants, for example, each have scored only 6 TDs in six games. We might be overly optimistic in forecasting that they would score 27 and 24.5 TDs if we were starting a new 16-game season today.
As usual, we look at the numbers in three chunks.
For touchdowns (offense only) we’ve got the Seahawks, Packers and Kansas City as the three three highest-scoring teams, and Washington and Jacksonville joining the two New York teams at the bottom.
For these one, we’re presenting the numbers as if we were just starting a 16-game season. When you see a team projected at 48 touchdowns and above, that’s 3 TDs per week.
OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | Pass | Run | Total |
1 | Seattle | 41.9 | 15.0 | 57.0 |
2 | Green Bay | 35.7 | 18.4 | 54.1 |
3 | Kansas City | 37.6 | 15.5 | 53.1 |
4 | New Orleans | 32.0 | 19.5 | 51.5 |
5 | Pittsburgh | 33.9 | 16.6 | 50.6 |
6 | Tampa Bay | 34.4 | 15.5 | 49.9 |
7 | LA Rams | 26.7 | 21.6 | 48.3 |
8 | Minnesota | 26.4 | 21.1 | 47.5 |
9 | Tennessee | 29.4 | 17.9 | 47.4 |
10 | Buffalo | 34.4 | 11.7 | 46.1 |
11 | Arizona | 25.3 | 20.8 | 46.1 |
12 | New England | 20.0 | 25.4 | 45.4 |
13 | Dallas | 28.0 | 17.1 | 45.1 |
14 | Cleveland | 25.3 | 19.8 | 45.1 |
15 | Baltimore | 26.4 | 17.6 | 44.0 |
16 | Detroit | 29.1 | 14.4 | 43.5 |
17 | Las Vegas | 29.8 | 13.3 | 43.0 |
18 | Houston | 31.2 | 10.9 | 42.1 |
19 | San Francisco | 24.8 | 16.6 | 41.4 |
20 | Atlanta | 27.4 | 13.6 | 41.0 |
21 | LA Chargers | 27.2 | 11.2 | 38.4 |
22 | Philadelphia | 24.3 | 13.1 | 37.4 |
23 | Carolina | 21.1 | 16.3 | 37.4 |
24 | Indianapolis | 21.6 | 14.9 | 36.5 |
25 | Miami | 24.3 | 11.7 | 36.0 |
26 | Chicago | 25.8 | 8.8 | 34.6 |
27 | Cincinnati | 23.7 | 10.4 | 34.1 |
28 | Denver | 21.6 | 12.0 | 33.6 |
29 | Jacksonville | 26.7 | 6.7 | 33.4 |
30 | Washington | 20.8 | 12.6 | 33.4 |
31 | NY Giants | 20.3 | 6.7 | 27.0 |
32 | NY Jets | 19.2 | 5.3 | 24.5 |
For passing production, I’ve got Seattle and Kansas City at the top, with very little difference between Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Green Bay. At the bottom, I’ve got New England and the two New York teams.
Scoring here assumes 6 points for touchdowns and 1 point for every 10 yards.
TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
1 | Seattle | 288 | 2.62 | 44.5 |
2 | Kansas City | 290 | 2.35 | 43.1 |
3 | Buffalo | 275 | 2.15 | 40.4 |
4 | Tampa Bay | 275 | 2.15 | 40.4 |
5 | Green Bay | 270 | 2.23 | 40.4 |
6 | New Orleans | 280 | 2.00 | 40.0 |
7 | Houston | 280 | 1.95 | 39.7 |
8 | Las Vegas | 272 | 1.86 | 38.4 |
9 | Pittsburgh | 255 | 2.12 | 38.2 |
10 | Dallas | 275 | 1.75 | 38.0 |
11 | Atlanta | 270 | 1.71 | 37.3 |
12 | Jacksonville | 270 | 1.67 | 37.0 |
13 | LA Rams | 268 | 1.67 | 36.8 |
14 | LA Chargers | 265 | 1.70 | 36.7 |
15 | Detroit | 255 | 1.82 | 36.4 |
16 | Tennessee | 250 | 1.84 | 36.0 |
17 | Minnesota | 255 | 1.65 | 35.4 |
18 | Cincinnati | 262 | 1.48 | 35.1 |
19 | Carolina | 262 | 1.32 | 34.1 |
20 | San Francisco | 247 | 1.55 | 34.0 |
21 | Philadelphia | 245 | 1.52 | 33.6 |
22 | Arizona | 240 | 1.58 | 33.5 |
23 | Chicago | 235 | 1.61 | 33.2 |
24 | Miami | 235 | 1.52 | 32.6 |
25 | Indianapolis | 235 | 1.35 | 31.6 |
26 | Denver | 225 | 1.35 | 30.6 |
27 | Washington | 227 | 1.30 | 30.5 |
28 | Cleveland | 210 | 1.58 | 30.5 |
29 | Baltimore | 205 | 1.65 | 30.4 |
30 | NY Giants | 212 | 1.27 | 28.8 |
31 | New England | 210 | 1.25 | 28.5 |
32 | NY Jets | 205 | 1.20 | 27.7 |
For rushing production, I’ve got New England, Baltimore and Minnesota as the best. At the bottom, I’ve got Jacksonville, Chicago and the two New York teams.
Scoring here assumes 6 points for touchdowns (rushing only) and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards.
TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Rk | Team | Yards | TDR | Pts |
1 | New England | 165 | 1.59 | 26.0 |
2 | Baltimore | 170 | 1.10 | 23.6 |
3 | Minnesota | 142 | 1.32 | 22.1 |
4 | Cleveland | 145 | 1.24 | 21.9 |
5 | Arizona | 135 | 1.30 | 21.3 |
6 | LA Rams | 130 | 1.35 | 21.1 |
7 | Tennessee | 135 | 1.12 | 20.2 |
8 | New Orleans | 118 | 1.22 | 19.1 |
9 | Kansas City | 128 | .97 | 18.6 |
10 | Pittsburgh | 122 | 1.04 | 18.4 |
11 | Green Bay | 114 | 1.15 | 18.3 |
12 | San Francisco | 118 | 1.04 | 18.0 |
13 | Dallas | 110 | 1.07 | 17.4 |
14 | Carolina | 112 | 1.02 | 17.3 |
15 | Seattle | 114 | .94 | 17.0 |
16 | Detroit | 115 | .90 | 16.9 |
17 | Tampa Bay | 110 | .97 | 16.8 |
18 | Las Vegas | 118 | .83 | 16.8 |
19 | Indianapolis | 104 | .93 | 16.0 |
20 | Philadelphia | 108 | .82 | 15.7 |
21 | LA Chargers | 115 | .70 | 15.7 |
22 | Denver | 110 | .75 | 15.5 |
23 | Atlanta | 102 | .85 | 15.3 |
24 | Houston | 105 | .68 | 14.6 |
25 | Buffalo | 95 | .73 | 13.9 |
26 | Miami | 92 | .73 | 13.6 |
27 | Cincinnati | 95 | .65 | 13.4 |
28 | Washington | 85 | .79 | 13.2 |
29 | NY Giants | 93 | .42 | 11.8 |
30 | NY Jets | 95 | .33 | 11.5 |
31 | Chicago | 80 | .55 | 11.3 |
32 | Jacksonville | 85 | .42 | 11.0 |
—Ian Allan