The preseason kicks off in full on Thursday, so appropriate at this time to step back and a take a look at the overall lay of the land. No doubt there will be all kinds of changes in the coming weeks, but we can compare the 32 offenses with each other as they move closer to stepping on the field for the first time.
Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Green Bay, in my opinion, are the three offenses most likely to score 55-plus touchdowns. At the other end of the spectrum, I’ve got the Texans a distant last in the 1 thru 32 rankings.
The numbers on this one might seem a little high to some, but keep in mind they’re playing 17 games this year. It used to be that an offense averaging 3 TDs would finish with 48 in a season. Now that’s up to 51.
The rankings you see below are tied to my individual player projections. That is, when I’ve got KC finishing with 43 TD passes, that means Patrick Mahomes in the individual projections finishes with almost 43 (he’s slightly lower, to account for the probability of an injury or somebody throwing a TD on a gadget play).
OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Kansas City | 42.8 | 15.1 | 58.0 |
Tampa Bay | 40.0 | 17.9 | 57.8 |
Green Bay | 39.1 | 16.7 | 55.8 |
Baltimore | 30.1 | 22.4 | 52.5 |
Buffalo | 36.4 | 15.5 | 51.9 |
Dallas | 34.3 | 17.2 | 51.5 |
Cleveland | 29.9 | 20.6 | 50.5 |
Tennessee | 29.8 | 20.7 | 50.5 |
Minnesota | 33.3 | 16.5 | 49.8 |
Seattle | 33.3 | 16.2 | 49.5 |
San Francisco | 27.9 | 21.4 | 49.3 |
LA Rams | 31.5 | 16.8 | 48.3 |
Arizona | 28.7 | 19.0 | 47.8 |
LA Chargers | 33.5 | 13.4 | 46.9 |
New Orleans | 25.2 | 21.6 | 46.8 |
Las Vegas | 28.9 | 16.7 | 45.6 |
Indianapolis | 26.2 | 18.4 | 44.5 |
Pittsburgh | 30.8 | 13.3 | 44.0 |
Philadelphia | 23.6 | 18.0 | 41.7 |
Atlanta | 28.2 | 13.3 | 41.5 |
New England | 22.3 | 19.2 | 41.5 |
Washington | 24.3 | 16.3 | 40.6 |
Carolina | 21.9 | 18.4 | 40.3 |
Denver | 24.1 | 16.2 | 40.3 |
Jacksonville | 25.7 | 14.6 | 40.3 |
Miami | 23.5 | 14.6 | 38.1 |
Cincinnati | 26.5 | 11.2 | 37.7 |
Chicago | 24.1 | 13.1 | 37.2 |
NY Giants | 22.3 | 13.9 | 36.2 |
Detroit | 21.6 | 13.8 | 35.4 |
NY Jets | 20.9 | 13.8 | 34.7 |
Houston | 18.0 | 10.5 | 28.6 |
For passing stats, I’ve got KC in the top spot, and I’ve got them a clear notch ahead of a clump of other offenses that also have good passing attacks.
I’ve got Tampa Bay 2nd. I realize Tom Brady just turned 44, but he hasn’t shown much dropoff in his game, and they’ve got a ton of weapons. Five other teams look pretty similar after the Bucs: Bills, Cowboys, Packers and the 2 LA teams.
On this one, I’m using per-game stats rather than the 17-game season totals. The fantasy points assumes 6 for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards. You can adjust to 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards, but the 1 thru 32 order would be similar. You’re getting the idea. I went with this scoring system because these projections apply not only to quarterbacks but to pass catchers (and there are a lot more pass catchers than quarterbacks).
TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
Kansas City | 315 | 2.52 | 46.6 |
Tampa Bay | 292 | 2.35 | 43.3 |
Buffalo | 285 | 2.14 | 41.3 |
Dallas | 292 | 2.02 | 41.3 |
Green Bay | 266 | 2.30 | 40.4 |
LA Chargers | 279 | 1.97 | 39.7 |
LA Rams | 285 | 1.85 | 39.6 |
Minnesota | 264 | 1.96 | 38.2 |
Seattle | 255 | 1.96 | 37.3 |
Pittsburgh | 260 | 1.81 | 36.9 |
Las Vegas | 260 | 1.70 | 36.2 |
San Francisco | 260 | 1.64 | 35.8 |
Atlanta | 256 | 1.66 | 35.6 |
Cincinnati | 260 | 1.56 | 35.4 |
Arizona | 252 | 1.69 | 35.3 |
Cleveland | 245 | 1.76 | 35.1 |
Tennessee | 245 | 1.75 | 35.0 |
Washington | 252 | 1.43 | 33.8 |
Jacksonville | 242 | 1.51 | 33.3 |
Carolina | 255 | 1.29 | 33.2 |
Denver | 246 | 1.42 | 33.1 |
Indianapolis | 235 | 1.54 | 32.7 |
New Orleans | 235 | 1.48 | 32.4 |
Philadelphia | 237 | 1.39 | 32.0 |
Chicago | 234 | 1.42 | 31.9 |
Miami | 234 | 1.38 | 31.7 |
NY Giants | 235 | 1.31 | 31.4 |
Baltimore | 203 | 1.77 | 30.9 |
Detroit | 230 | 1.27 | 30.6 |
New England | 225 | 1.31 | 30.4 |
NY Jets | 227 | 1.23 | 30.1 |
Houston | 220 | 1.06 | 28.4 |
For rushing, I’ve got the Ravens, with their unusual combination of talent and scheme, the clear leader in production. Then, not much difference between four other teams: Browns, Saints, Titans, 49ers.
Texans finish down at the bottom (just like the other two categories).
TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
Baltimore | 184 | 1.32 | 26.3 |
Cleveland | 142 | 1.21 | 21.5 |
New Orleans | 136 | 1.27 | 21.2 |
Tennessee | 138 | 1.22 | 21.1 |
San Francisco | 134 | 1.26 | 21.0 |
New England | 130 | 1.13 | 19.8 |
Philadelphia | 133 | 1.06 | 19.7 |
Arizona | 123 | 1.12 | 19.0 |
Minnesota | 128 | .97 | 18.6 |
Seattle | 127 | .95 | 18.4 |
Indianapolis | 119 | 1.08 | 18.4 |
Denver | 125 | .95 | 18.2 |
Dallas | 121 | 1.01 | 18.2 |
Carolina | 115 | 1.08 | 18.0 |
LA Rams | 119 | .99 | 17.8 |
Green Bay | 118 | .98 | 17.7 |
Las Vegas | 118 | .98 | 17.7 |
Kansas City | 115 | .89 | 16.8 |
NY Giants | 118 | .82 | 16.7 |
Buffalo | 112 | .91 | 16.7 |
Tampa Bay | 103 | 1.05 | 16.6 |
NY Jets | 115 | .81 | 16.4 |
Washington | 106 | .96 | 16.4 |
Jacksonville | 111 | .86 | 16.3 |
Chicago | 115 | .77 | 16.1 |
Miami | 105 | .86 | 15.7 |
Detroit | 107 | .81 | 15.6 |
LA Chargers | 106 | .79 | 15.3 |
Atlanta | 106 | .78 | 15.3 |
Pittsburgh | 102 | .78 | 14.9 |
Cincinnati | 104 | .66 | 14.4 |
Houston | 93 | .62 | 13.0 |
Glance these numbers over and let we know what you think is out of whack.
These numbers will be adjusted throughout the preseason to account for injuries and developments.
—Ian Allan