In Week 6, the Buccaneers crushed the Packers 38-10 in Tampa Bay. The Packers actually had the early advantage, scoring on their first two drives to take a 10-0 lead, while the Bucs punted the first two times they had the ball. But from there on it was all Tampa Bay, with the Bucs scoring on a defensive touchdown and also the next four times their offense had the ball. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season.

The previous meeting was in 2017 (with Jameis Winston facing Brett Hundley), so not relevant to this matchup. ... Weather might be a factor in this game. The early forecast calls for 28 degree temperatures and a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Wind shouldn’t be too bad (5-10 mph) but the cold and snow could keep scoring down. … Green Bay is favored by 3, with an over-under of 51, suggesting a 27-24 game. Both the point spread and the over-under have moved down by about a point since the betting line opened.

The Bucs had the league’s No. 3 scoring offense during the season, averaging 3.6 touchdowns and 31 points per game. Including the playoffs they scored at least 3 touchdowns 15 times in eighteen games. Green Bay was slightly above average defensively, but allowed 3 touchdowns in half of its regular-season games, before limiting the Rams to just 2 TDs (and 18 points) last week. But about 3 TDs looks right for Tampa Bay. Probably the kind of back-and-forth game where a late drive or big defensive play could swing it.

QUARTERBACK

Intangibles inevitably favor the guy lately referred to as the GOAT, Tom Brady. He’s 32-11 in the postseason, and has won his last three conference championship games (plus those unprecedented six Super Bowls). He’s 43 years old, but none of the obvious deterioration in Drew Brees’ game of late was evident with Brady in Tampa Bay’s two postseason wins. He threw for 381 yards and 2 TDs against a tough Washington defense, then 199 (but with 3 total touchdowns) against a Saints defense that had his number in both regular-season meetings. Here he’s facing what was a top-10 pass defense during the season, one that allowed just 23 touchdown passes (also a top-10 performance). Fewer than half of Green Bay’s opponents (seven) threw multiple touchdowns, and only six reached 260 passing yards.

But schedule was a factor. Green Bay played eight games against what might be considered above-average passers, and in general those guys finished with decent numbers. Six finished with multiple touchdowns, and half passed for over 280 yards. Fun fact, former teammates and recent retirees Drew Brees and Philip Rivers finished with the same numbers.

Left off this table is Kirk Cousins, who probably could have been included. He put up big numbers in an early-season loss, lesser numbers in a run-dominated win. Generally, most better quarterbacks fared well in this matchup. Brady himself threw for just 166 yards in the earlier meeting, but that’s deceptive – the Bucs won that game in a blowout, with a defensive touchdown and another score set up by a takeaway. He completed 14 of his first 16 passes, at which point Tampa Bay had a 28-10 lead and coasted.

We’re anticipating above-average yards and 2 TDs. Brady won’t run it, but quarterback sneaks will show up near the goal line. He scored 4 TDs on the ground this year, including last week.

RUNNING BACKS

It’s a committee at running back, with Leonard Fournette appearing to currently be the favored option over Ronald Jones. That’s not certain – Jones had been the primary back before a late-season quad injury – but with both backs available at New Orleans, Fournette played twice as many snaps. On Wednesday, Jones hinted he wasn’t 100 percent last week, but feels better now, so a leading role can’t be ruled out. Fournette definitely seems to be the preferred player in the passing game (despite occasional drops), catching 5 passes and a touchdown last week (Jones saw one target). Both got chances near the goal line, including Jones carrying from the 3, setting up a Brady sneak.

Jones definitely seems to have more juice as a runner, averaging 4.8 on his 13 carries last week, while Fournette averaged 3.7 on his 17. Jones also ripped off a 44-yard run in that game, that was called back due to a holding penalty. Jones was huge in the earlier meeting (a game Fournette missed), rushing for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Both backs will play, and game flow or one back having the hot hand could determine which one finishes with better numbers.

The matchup is favorable. The Packers were fairly average defending the run during the season (14th), allowing 113 yards per game and 16 touchdowns. Cam Akers rushed for 90 yards and a touchdown last week, averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and the Rams – with Cooper Kupp sidelined and Jared Goff struggling/hurt – didn’t have as capable a passing game to distract the defense as Tampa Bay does.

But the reality is that Bruce Arians Tampa Bay offense has long favored the pass. That continued this season; it ranked 4th in passing and just 28th in rushing. Only the Texans were more lopsided. If Tampa Bay can get a lead, maybe it works the run a little more (as in the earlier meeting), but it’s a lot more likely they’ll build that lead by throwing it. And if it’s a back-and-forth shootout or the Bucs fall behind early -- the other two ways this game might go -- they’ll likely pass a lot more (which should favor Fournette). We’re expecting below-average rushing numbers, with Fournette’s pass-game role helping his overall projection.

WIDE RECEIVERS

The Buccaneers have an unusually deep and talented group of pass catchers. They were great a year ago, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin leading the way, and then added Antonio Brown. Their No. 3 prior to adding Brown, Scotty Miller, turned in some strong games earlier in the season, and rookie Tyler Johnson made a remarkable sideline catch to convert a 3rd and 11 on what turned out to be the winning drive last week (a field goal to break a 20-20 tie). Lots of mouths to feed (without even mentioning the running backs or tight ends).

Evans battled injuries during the season, factoring into three games where he finished with 10 or fewer yards. But he and Brady had a remarkable rapport near the goal line, with Evans catching 13 touchdowns (and another from the 3-yard line last week). He went over 100 yards in the playoff opener at Washington; he’s done that in three of his last five. Both for scoring and upside, Evans looks like the top option.

Godwin caught only 5 fewer passes than Evans during the season, but hasn’t looked as good these days. He missed four games, including one for hand surgery, and maybe that affected him some down the stretch. He caught only 5 of 12 passes at Washington, with 3 clear drops. He had another drop last week, though he nearly made a spectacular diving catch in the back of the end zone, losing his grip while trying to get both feet down in bounds. He’ll see plenty of targets, but Evans seems to be the superior choice. (Neither did much in the earlier meeting, but this game should go a lot differently than that defense-and-run-oriented game.)

Brown picked up a knee injury at New Orleans and played only 40 percent of the time, catching 1 pass. It’s not expected to keep him out of this game – an MRI reportedly revealed nothing serious – but he didn’t practice either Wednesday or Thursday. At best he’ll play limited snaps, which would result in a few more chances for Miller and Johnson. Probably Johnson, who had a 15-8 edge in snaps last week, but both will play. The matchup isn’t great, with Green Bay allowing just 13 touchdowns to wide receivers during the season, and the number of targets makes it hard to latch too securely onto any of the wideouts after Evans and Godwin.

TIGHT ENDS

Rob Gronkowski had one of his best games in the earlier meeting, catching 5 for 78 and a touchdown. That was the start of a three-game scoring streak; on the season he caught 7 touchdowns. But other than the Week 16 blowout of Detroit, where he scored twice, he hasn’t been a big part of the passing game lately. In his other five most recent games, he’s totaled 7 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown. That includes just 1 catch in the two playoff games. The potential of some throwback Brady-Gronk production exists (they just missed on a big play down the sidelines at New Orleans), plus the earlier meeting. But the Packers allowed only 5 touchdowns to tight ends during the season, and Cameron Brate has been more involved as a receiver lately anyway. Brate in those same five games caught more than twice as many passes (15), and has also caught 4 balls in each of the two playoff games, for 130 yards. As with the wideouts, difficult to be too confident of selecting the team’s best option.

KICKER

Ryan Succop has been pretty solid, converting over 90 percent of his field goals during the season (28 of 31), and 7 of 7 in the two playoff games. He missed 5 extra points, and another at Washington, but hit all 3 at New Orleans. The Packers allowed 24 field goals during the season, which is average, but actually more than any of the other three remaining teams. Tampa Bay’s 8.5 kicking points per game was 2nd (to Buffalo) of the final four teams.

DEFENSE

If we're looking solely at what teams have done this season, the Bucs have the most impressive defense remaining. They had 3-4 more fumbles than two of the three remaining teams (10), were within 1 of the top in interceptions (15), and had 7, 10 and 16 more sacks than the other three teams. But matchups matter, and some of those things were true of the Rams Defense last week -- and it had no sacks or takeaways against Aaron Rodgers. During the season he was sacked just 20 times while throwing only 5 interceptions. The Packers lost just 6 fumbles.

Two of Rodgers' interceptions, of course, were against this defense. They also sacked him 4 times. So we'll project them a little higher than a typical Green Bay opponent. But the overall body of work suggests 2 sacks and a takeaway is the best you can hope for with Tampa Bay. They don't have a notable return game.

Next: Green Bay.

--Andy Richardson