The Packers look like the weekend's biggest favorite. They stormed through the regular season, playing basically one bad game, and handled the Rams pretty easily last week. They're at home playing the NFC's 5th seed (the AFC game is No. 1 versus No. 2). The only ding is that they're facing the team that beat them soundly back in Week 6, plus that Tom Brady guy.

But it was just one game, and in most other weeks, including against top competition, they took care of business. They're healthy, and they've got a quarterback and wide receiver who have been on top of their games all season long. They were the league's highest-scoring offense during the year, and here they're facing a defense that was a bottom-1o group defending the pass, which is where they've really excelled when necessary. Maybe they lose a high-scoring game, but it would be surprising if their offense didn't put up big numbers, as in 3-4 touchdowns and 30-plus points -- something they did 12 times in 16 games.

QUARTERBACK

Aaron Rodgers has seemingly been playing with a chip on his shoulder all year. The Packers used a first-round pick on his presumed replacement, didn't add any receiving help, and were supposedly going run-heavy. None of that stopped him from setting a career-high in touchdown passes (48) and having one of his two best seasons in both completion percentage (70.7) and passer rating (121.5). The fact that he had by far his worst game all year against this particular opponent (16 of 35 for 160 yards, with no touchdowns, 2 interceptions and 4 sacks) will probably only motivate him further -- he'll spend the week being reminded of that game, and unlikely it happens again. In his other 16 games this year (including against an excellent Rams defense last week) he threw all of 3 interceptions and was sacked just 16 times.

Tampa Bay has long forced opponents to pass the ball. During the season they ranked 1st against the run (as they did a year ago) and 23rd against the pass. That's been their approach, and they've used that focus to help them rank 4th in sacks (48) and 7th in interceptions (15) -- they like compelling teams to pass and getting after the quarterback. But very tough to get much production off Rodgers, who doesn't force many passes and remains mobile enough at 37 to get away from pass rushers and get rid of the ball. He lost All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari a few weeks back, but replacement Billy Turner has held up fine in relief (the Rams had 5 more sacks than the Bucs during the season, although granted Aaron Donald was playing hurt last week).

During the season Rodgers averaged 269 passing yards and 3 touchdown passes per game. With the way the Bucs tend to play defense, we're going a little higher on the yardage. Rodgers didn't run very often (9 yards per game), but will call his own number around the goal line on occasion (4 TDs during the season, and another against the Rams). Two seasons in a row the Bucs have allowed about three times as many touchdowns on passes (30 and 29) as runs (11 and 10). Would be mildly surprising if Rodgers doesn't finish with 3 total touchdowns in this game.

RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones had a big season, averaging 104 total yards (79 run, 25 rec) and with 11 touchdowns. Green Bay did a good job of featuring him but also not overworking him; in most games he played no more than 60-70 percent of the snaps. Jamaal Williams regularly played about 30-40 percent of the time, averaging 53 total yards; 44 if you want to set aside two games Jones missed. But the team started working in AJ Dillon more down the stretch. The rookie had a big game against Tennessee (when Williams was sidelined), and it appeared like a three-man backfield against the Rams. In the first half Jones and Williams each had 7 carries, and Dillon had 3. He picked up a quad injury in that game, but was able to get in a limited practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. The injury, though, makes it look more likely it's a Jones-Williams committee, with Jones getting around 60 percent of the workload. Williams (ankle) has also been limited in practice this week, but there’s been no indication it’s serious.

The matchup, as noted, is very tough. In both yards (81 per game) and yards per attempt (3.6), no defense was better than Tampa Bay this season. Jones scored in Week 6, but his 10 carries went for only 15 yards. Williams (4 for 34) and Dillon (5 for 31) were better, but much of that came after halftime and doesn't seem meaningful. Jones (47 receptions and 2 TDs) and Williams (31 and 1) were similarly involved as receivers (relative to playing time), and that production will be key this week. Dillon caught only 2 passes; assuming full health, he'd be most likely to play if Green Bay is working the clock in the fourth quarter.

In general, the best thing Jones has going for him is his leading role, which is less certain with the running backs for Kansas City and Tampa Bay, and goal-line chances (Buffalo doesn't give the position many goal-line carries). But unlikely he finishes with big rushing numbers, even as the primary ball carrier.

WIDE RECEIVERS

There are several elite wideouts playing this weekend, and difficult to make too strong a case for one versus the others. But certainly Davante Adams has a claim to the top spot. Despite missing two games, he had more touchdowns (18) than Tyreek Hill and more catches (8.2) and yards (98) per game than Stefon Diggs (who had the most total during the season). And here he's facing the weakest pass defense still playing, and the one that allowed the most touchdowns to wide receivers (17). Even with Rodgers having by far his worst game at Tampa Bay, Adams put up credible numbers, catching 6 passes for 61 yards.

With a good matchup for the passing game (and Green Bay having to emphasize it more than in most contests), there might be another viable wideout. Allen Lazard, who caught 4 passes for 96 yards, including the game-clinching 58-yard score last week, was the No. 2 for most of the season. He missed six games due to core muscle surgery, and his biggest game (146 yards at New Orleans) can be downplayed since it was one Adams missed. In his other nine games he averaged exactly 3 catches for 34 yards, with 2 TDs. Not great production, but the favorite for targets and catches behind Adams among the wide receivers.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is more of a boom-bust option -- as likely to be dramatically worse than Lazard as better. He also caught 4 passes last week, and 6 touchdowns during the season. But he averaged just 2 catches per week, and offset four big games (80-plus yards, with 4 touchdowns in those games) with even more total no-shows. Seven times during the season he played more than 60 percent of the snaps while catching 1 or no passes, which defies belief considering the quarterback he was working with. Two of his better games came in the last five, at least, but so did two where he was shut out. Lazard looks like the superior choice, with Valdes-Scantling is hit or miss. Equanimeous St. Brown has played sparingly as the No. 4, catching 7 balls and a touchdown in his last eight games.

TIGHT ENDS

Only six teams allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than Tampa Bay (9), so it's a decent enough situation for Robert Tonyan. Those scores (he caught 11 during the season) are key to his value; otherwise he averaged 3 catches for 37 yards. But he caught 4 for 60 last week; close with Lazard to looking like the 2nd-best option in the passing game. He caught 3 for 25 in the earlier meeting and will likely see looser coverage around the end zone than Adams.

Marcedes Lewis is primarily a blocker. He caught just 10 passes all season. He did snag 3 touchdowns, at least, but very unlikely to outperform the starting options from any of the other three teams, or the No. 2s from anyone but Kansas City.

KICKER

Kickers tend to fare better from teams that win, and the Packers looks like Sunday's most likely winner. But the offense has been too efficient at finishing drives with touchdowns for Mason Crosby to pay big dividends in fantasy leagues. No regular kicker attempted fewer field goals (16) than he did; he was the only one who made all of them. He kicked 2 more extra points (59) than any other kicker. Defensive quality goes up in January (Crosby kicked a pair of field goals against the Rams), making things look a little more promising. But Tampa Bay during the season allowed 2-3 fewer field goals than 2 of the other 3 teams still playing; 3 total the last two weeks.

DEFENSE

The Packers had a top-10 pass rush (41 sacks) but were bottom-10 in takeaways (11 interceptions and 7 fumble recoveries). Generally a poor idea putting a defense up against Tom Brady expecting a lot of turnovers. He threw 12 interceptions, 9 in four games against the best teams he faced (Rams, Kansas City and Saints twice). The Packers are another of those elite opponents, so maybe. But they had no sacks or takeaways against Brady in the earlier meeting. On the season he was sacked just 21 times. The Packers don't have noteworthy returners, using Tavon Austin (whose best performance are well in the past) on punts and Malik Taylor on kickoffs last week.

Next: Championship Game Rankings.

--Andy Richardson