Carson Wentz will be traded, it’s becoming clear, and the deal should be agreed upon before the end of the week. That will make him one of the more interesting question marks heading into the 2021 season.
Reports suggest Wentz will be traded to either Indianapolis or Chicago. There are extensive coaching ties between the Colts and Eagles. With the Bears, the trade could include sending Nick Foles back to Philadelphia for a third stint (allowing both teams to get rid of a bad quarterback contracts).
Jalen Hurts, with a Wentz trade, would be locked in as an opening day starter, but he’s young and unproven, so the Eagles probably would want to secure a reliable and experienced backup quarterback. Foles would be a nice fit for that role.
With Wentz, he was on his way to winning the MVP award in 2017 before tearing his ACL in a game at Los Angeles. Wentz in 13 games that season threw 33 touchdowns versus only 7 interceptions, with the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl that year.
Wentz hasn’t gotten back to that kind of form since. He was a disaster last year before the Eagles finally (mercifully) benched him late in the year. In 12 games, Wentz took 50 sacks, with 16 touchdowns, 15 interceptions and 10 fumbles. Had they left him in the lineup, he likely would have finished the season as the most-sacked quarterback since David Carr was with the Texans.
Not all of that stink can be attributed to him, of course. Philadelphia’s offensive line was a disaster, and they’ve struggled at the wide receiver position with injuries and poor personnel decisions. And the design of the offense could have been better, with Wentz not asked to do so much.
If we go back to the previous two years (after the MVP-type season but before the meltdown) Wentz was more of a middle-of-the-pack quarterback. In 2018 (coming off the knee injury), Wentz averaged 280 passing yards per game, with 21 TDs versus 7 interceptions in the 11 games he started. And in 2019, Wentz averaged 252 passing yards, with 27 touchdowns and 7 interceptions.
In the two seasons prior to last year, 33 quarterbacks started at least half the time. Wentz ranked 15th in per-game fantasy production in those seasons. With the right coaching staff and players around him (ideally, the Colts, with Frank Reich) Wentz would seem positioned for a solid reboot season.
It’s early, and I’m thinking out loud, but if Wentz winds up in Indianapolis, I would think he’d be a top-15 quarterback on my board. Maybe a little higher. If Wentz is in Chicago, I would think probably outside the top 20.
(On this chart below, I’m leaving out the 2020 numbers – these are the per-game figures from the previous two seasons.)
| QUARTERBACKS, POINTS PER GAME (2018-19) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Pass | TDP | Int | Run | TDR | Pts/G |
| Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 22 | 193.2 | 1.86 | .41 | 80.1 | .50 | 28.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 30 | 304.3 | 2.53 | .57 | 16.3 | .13 | 27.9 |
| Jameis Winston, T.B. | 25 | 310.3 | 1.96 | 1.64 | 20.3 | .08 | 26.2 |
| Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 31 | 258.6 | 1.68 | .68 | 31.1 | .42 | 25.3 |
| Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 287.1 | 2.44 | .94 | 9.3 | .00 | 25.3 |
| Matt Ryan, Atl. | 31 | 302.9 | 1.97 | .68 | 8.8 | .16 | 25.1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger, Pitt. | 18 | 304.4 | 1.89 | .94 | 5.8 | .17 | 24.8 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick, T.B.-Mia. | 20 | 277.0 | 1.70 | 1.25 | 18.6 | .30 | 24.4 |
| Dak Prescott, Dall. | 32 | 274.6 | 1.63 | .59 | 18.2 | .28 | 23.9 |
| Drew Brees, N.O. | 26 | 268.1 | 2.27 | .35 | .7 | .19 | 23.8 |
| Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 247.9 | 1.50 | .88 | 30.4 | .25 | 23.2 |
| Russell Wilson, Sea. | 32 | 236.2 | 2.06 | .38 | 22.4 | .09 | 23.0 |
| Jared Goff, LAR | 32 | 291.4 | 1.69 | .88 | 4.6 | .13 | 22.7 |
| Josh Allen, Buff. | 27 | 188.5 | 1.11 | .78 | 41.3 | .63 | 22.1 |
| Carson Wentz, Phil. | 27 | 263.4 | 1.78 | .52 | 12.4 | .04 | 22.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 32 | 263.9 | 1.59 | .19 | 14.1 | .09 | 21.9 |
| Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 232.6 | 1.25 | .75 | 34.0 | .25 | 21.9 |
| Ryan Tannehill, Mia.-Ten. | 21 | 218.0 | 1.86 | .67 | 15.5 | .24 | 21.4 |
| Philip Rivers, LAC | 32 | 278.8 | 1.72 | 1.00 | 1.1 | .00 | 21.2 |
| Kirk Cousins, Min. | 31 | 254.9 | 1.81 | .52 | 6.0 | .06 | 21.2 |
| Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 29 | 253.5 | 1.69 | 1.21 | 9.4 | .10 | 21.1 |
| Tom Brady, N.E. | 32 | 262.9 | 1.66 | .59 | 2.2 | .16 | 21.0 |
| Andy Dalton, Cin. | 24 | 252.5 | 1.54 | 1.04 | 7.2 | .17 | 20.7 |
| Matthew Stafford, Det. | 24 | 261.5 | 1.67 | .67 | 5.7 | .00 | 20.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo, S.F. | 19 | 247.2 | 1.68 | .84 | 5.0 | .05 | 20.2 |
| Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 29 | 219.3 | 1.41 | .76 | 21.2 | .17 | 20.1 |
| Eli Manning, NYG | 20 | 267.1 | 1.35 | .80 | 1.4 | .05 | 19.5 |
| Derek Carr, Oak. | 32 | 253.2 | 1.25 | .56 | 4.0 | .09 | 18.7 |
| Sam Darnold, NYJ | 26 | 226.5 | 1.38 | 1.08 | 7.7 | .12 | 18.6 |
| Joe Flacco, Balt.-Den. | 17 | 252.2 | 1.06 | .65 | 3.8 | .00 | 17.3 |
| Case Keenum, Min.-Was. | 24 | 226.6 | 1.17 | .83 | 4.4 | .08 | 16.9 |
| Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 19 | 189.8 | .95 | .53 | 22.9 | .11 | 16.2 |
| Josh Rosen, Ariz.-Mia. | 16 | 169.2 | .75 | 1.00 | 8.7 | .00 | 12.5 |
—Ian Allan