Super Bowl LV is tomorrow, and some of the questions from the week have been answered. Antonio Brown practiced fully yesterday, and Demarcus Robinson was removed from the COVID list; those guys are playing. It's the Tampa tight end situation that is a bit of a mystery.
Cameron Brate left Thursday's practice early with a back injury, then didn't practice at all on Friday. Officially, he's questionable (so is Antonio Brown, but Brown, again, was a full participant in Friday's practice). Media observers have said Brate "plans to play," "felt better on Friday than Thursday" (despite the missed practice) and is expected to play. Only that third report seems particularly valuable; sounds like he'll be active. But it doesn't seem as likely that he'll again be the team's top pass catching tight end.
Over the last six games, Brate has been the team's main pass catcher at the position. He's caught 18 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown. Gronkowski has caught only half as many passes in those same six contests. He was better than Brate in only two of those games, and none of the playoff contests.
| GRONK VERSUS BRATE, LAST SIX | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | No(G) | Yds(G) | TD(G) | No(B) | Yds(B) | TD(B) |
| At Atl. | 3 | 29 | 0 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Det. | 2 | 58 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Atl | 2 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| At Wash. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 80 | 0 |
| At N.O. | 1 | 14 | 0 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| At G.B. | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
The difference has been especially pronounced in the playoffs, with Brate catching 11 passes compared to just 2 for Gronkowski. If Brate were fully healthy, it seems pretty clear which player should be used.
Now? I think it's risky to use Brate. Might not be 100 percent, and at risk for an in-game setback.
When I did the rankings for this game earlier in the week, I slotted Brate ahead of Gronkowski. Had to, I think. Now I think Gronkowski is the better option. Would take some really positive news on Brate today to change my mind.
The question is whether Gronkowski will inherit those targets, or if they'll instead go to a wide receiver. Like Antonio Brown, who missed the Green Bay game and played only a third of the snaps the previous week. Brate being limited doesn't necessarily mean Gronkowski will see those extra targets; he's already playing close to full-time, but blocking on a lot of those players.
I think it's Brown whose value has changed the most since early in the week, as the clear No. 3 wideout. And maybe he sees a few extra targets if Brate can't go. Slight bump for Gronkowski. But he hasn't been a big enough part of the passing game to imagine a huge outing.
--Andy Richardson