When a receiver shows potential as a rookie (like CeeDee Lamb or Chase Claypool last year) the tendency is to assume he’ll be better in Year No. 2 – he’ll be more knowledgeable and confident. But that doesn’t show up as strongly as you might think with the numbers.
Consider the following chart. It shows the 35 rookie wide receivers in the last 20 years who’ve finished with top 40 numbers (PPR scoring) but who hasn’t ranked in the top 20. Here, I’m not looking for guys like Randy Moss or Odell Beckham, who were clearly superstars right away. Instead, I’m looking for guys who had shown potential – the guy you’re hoping will become stars.
So with these 35 players, we can then look at how they did in their second season, getting a measure of how many (with their extra experience, reps and know-how) got a lot better.
Not as many as you might think.
Of the 35, 22 got better in their second year, but 13 got worse (of those 13, two actually finished with slightly better numbers but finished with a lower ranking at the position). Regardless, it’s about a 2-1 ratio.
Of these 35, seven had the big breakout-type jump, not only getting better but moving up into the top 10 (again, using PPR scoring). That’s a pretty good hit rate in that regard, I suppose – roughly 1 in 5 went from being merely good or serviceable into being a big-time legit No. 1 receiver. It’s not easy posting top-10 numbers at wide receiver.
In the chart below, there are four guys in bold. Those are the 2020 candidates; we’ll see how they do this year. The players with the black dots are the ones who finished with a lower ranking at their position.
PROMISING ROOKIE WIDE RECEIVERS (last 20 years) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk | Next Yr | Rk |
2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 | ?-?-? | ? |
2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 52 | 1051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 | 70-1075-12 | 11 |
2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 | ?-?-? | ? |
2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 | 83-1153-5 | 15 |
2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 8 | 203.5 | 21 | 79-1198-10 | 11 |
2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 | 85-997-8 | 16 |
2009 | Percy Harvin, Min. | 60 | 790 | 8 | 200.5 | 23 | 71-868-7 | 19 |
2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 | 60-1047-9 | 20 |
2007 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 5 | 199.5 | 22 | 86-1022-7 | 16 |
2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 67 | 908 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 | ?-?-? | ? |
2004 | • Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 843 | 9 | 194.8 | 29 | 48-743-7 | 32 |
2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 58 | 900 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 | 83-1303-10 | 7 |
2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 | 87-1118-4 | 20 |
2019 | • Deebo Samuel, S.F. | 57 | 802 | 6 | 191.1 | 31 | 33-391-1 | 96 |
2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 84 | 758 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 | 110-1157-6 | 9 |
2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 50 | 861 | 8 | 187.0 | 28 | 82-1083-5 | 19 |
2008 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 62 | 912 | 4 | 186.8 | 30 | 62-1156-12 | 10 |
2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 66 | 976 | 4 | 186.6 | 22 | 79-1142-6 | 18 |
2004 | Larry Fitzgerald, Ariz. | 58 | 780 | 8 | 185.4 | 31 | 103-1409-10 | 2 |
2012 | • Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 | 29-415-1 | 93 |
2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 60 | 748 | 7 | 184.5 | 35 | ?-?-? | ? |
2016 | • Sterling Shepard, NYG | 65 | 683 | 8 | 184.4 | 36 | 59-731-2 | 42 |
2004 | • Roy Williams, Det. | 54 | 817 | 8 | 183.8 | 32 | 45-687-8 | 35 |
2011 | • Torrey Smith, Balt. | 50 | 841 | 7 | 180.0 | 30 | 49-855-8 | 31 |
2017 | • Cooper Kupp, LAR | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 | 40-566-6 | 51 |
2001 | • Chris Chambers, Mia. | 48 | 883 | 7 | 177.2 | 33 | 52-734-3 | 47 |
2019 | • Darius Slayton, NYG | 48 | 740 | 8 | 170.0 | 37 | 50-751-3 | 54 |
2009 | • Austin Collie, Ind. | 60 | 676 | 7 | 169.7 | 29 | 58-649-8 | 35 |
2019 | Diontae Johnson, Pitt. | 59 | 680 | 6 | 167.1 | 39 | 88-923-7 | 21 |
2000 | • Peter Warrick, Cin. | 51 | 592 | 7 | 167.0 | 30 | 70-667-1 | 44 |
2018 | DJ Moore, Car. | 55 | 788 | 2 | 163.0 | 36 | 87-1175-4 | 16 |
2009 | Hakeem Nicks, NYG | 47 | 790 | 6 | 162.8 | 33 | 79-1052-11 | 8 |
2013 | • Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 45 | 469 | 9 | 161.7 | 38 | 33-384-2 | 83 |
2000 | Darrell Jackson, Sea. | 53 | 713 | 6 | 160.2 | 35 | 70-1081-8 | 18 |
2007 | Calvin Johnson, Det. | 48 | 756 | 5 | 158.8 | 38 | 78-1331-12 | 3 |
2009 | Jeremy Maclin, Phil. | 56 | 773 | 4 | 156.6 | 35 | 70-964-10 | 14 |
2009 | Mike Wallace, Pitt. | 39 | 756 | 6 | 155.4 | 36 | 60-1257-10 | 9 |
2008 | • Donnie Avery, St.L. | 53 | 674 | 4 | 151.3 | 39 | 47-589-5 | 50 |
2006 | Santonio Holmes, Pitt. | 49 | 824 | 3 | 150.7 | 38 | 52-942-8 | 24 |
—Ian Allan