The probability of Elijah Moore ripping it up as a rookie has gone down. The Jets have gotten Jamison Crowder to agree to a pay cut, making it less likely that Moore will be starting on opening day.

The Jets selected Moore early in the second round, and Robert Saleh said he was a player they were thinking about selecting in the first. When they get him worked into the offense properly, he should be their starting slot receiver, probably leading them in catches. He caught 86 passes in only eight games last year at Mississippi.

The last two wide receivers from Ole Miss who were selected in the second round both put up big numbers as rookies. The last selected in the first round (Laquon Treadwell) did not, and is battling to try to stay in the league. All three of those receivers aren’t anything like Moore – they’re all big guys. Moore is a smaller, listed at 5-foot-10 and 178 pounds.

But before Moore can start cranking out 80-catch seasons, he’ll need to move into the starting lineup, and that won’t necessarily happen right away. Crowder has been around for six years, and he’s an above-average slot receiver, both with Washington and the Jets.

Despite playing on bad teams, Crowder has averaged almost 5 catches per game over the last two years. Among receivers who’ve started at least half the time, only 24 have averaged more catches per game.

WIDE RECEIVERS AVERAGING 4 CATCHES PER GAME (2019-20)
PlayerStNoYdsTD
Michael Thomas238.294.0.39
Davante Adams267.691.2.90
DeAndre Hopkins317.183.0.45
Keenan Allen306.873.0.48
Allen Robinson326.374.9.41
Julio Jones246.390.2.38
Stefon Diggs316.186.0.45
Cooper Kupp316.068.9.42
Chris Godwin265.883.6.63
Robert Woods315.866.8.35
Tyler Lockett325.766.0.56
Sterling Shepard225.656.0.35
Julian Edelman225.565.1.32
Justin Jefferson165.587.5.48
Calvin Ridley285.580.0.60
Tyler Boyd315.560.9.29
Tyreek Hill275.479.1.89
Amari Cooper325.372.0.42
DJ Moore305.178.9.27
Jarvis Landry315.065.0.34
Terry McLaurin295.070.2.38
Cole Beasley305.058.2.38
JuJu Smith-Schuster285.049.4.44
Diontae Johnson294.953.8.45
Jamison Crowder284.954.7.45
Marvin Jones294.860.6.62
Mike Evans294.774.6.74
Russell Gage254.747.5.23
Will Fuller224.670.4.50
CeeDee Lamb164.658.4.46
Robby Anderson324.658.6.27
Jakobi Meyers174.559.8.10
DeVante Parker304.566.5.43
DJ Chark284.561.2.48
Larry Fitzgerald294.441.8.17
Courtland Sutton174.469.3.35
DK Metcalf324.468.8.54
John Brown244.463.3.40
Christian Kirk274.349.3.35
Brandin Cooks294.259.8.28
Curtis Samuel314.247.7.39
Odell Beckham234.258.9.35
Michael Gallup304.265.0.37
Adam Thielen254.253.7.85
Emmanuel Sanders314.151.5.35
Deebo Samuel224.154.2.33
A.J. Brown304.170.9.70
Kenny Golladay214.072.8.62
T.Y. Hilton254.050.5.41

Crowder was slated to make $10 million in 2021. That’s too much (if they were to cut him, no team would be willing to pay Crowder anything close to that). But rather than release him, the Jets have gotten him to agree to come back at a lower figure. Published reports speculate he’s probably now making less than half as much.

Long-term Moore should move ahead of Crowder. Maybe that even happens before the start of the season. There have been a couple of practice reports indicating Moore has been looking good. But more likely, Crowder probably will be their starting slot receiver when the season starts.

The Jets have three other notable wide receivers, and they’ll likely play outside – Corey Davis, Denzel Mims and Keelan Cole. (Toss in Chris Herndon at tight end, and the Jets seem to have a decent group of receivers around rookie quarterback Zach Wilson.)

—Ian Allan