I wonder if there’s some chance of Cam Newton turning things around. They’ve been talking him up some at practice. And he’s the one guy in the league who’s been able to pull off this kind of turnaround multiple times in the past.
An hour or so ago, I began looking at what you might call “breakout” quarterbacks. Guys who dramatically outperform where they’re selected in fantasy leagues. I didn’t set out intending to look at Newton, but he bubbled to the surface.
I started with the premise of wanting to identify all quarterbacks who finished with top-5 numbers who hadn’t put up top-15 numbers in the previous seasons. (And I’m using total production, rather than the per-game stats I sometimes toss around). There have been 33 such quarterbacks since 2000. You can then look at these players and identify what changed.
With the vast majority of these quarterbacks, they ranked outside the top 15 the previous season because they didn’t play much. Either they were a backup or got injured. Newton had one of those seasons, putting up top-3 numbers as a rookie. So if you’re looking for a “breakout” type quarterback, probably best to zero in on guys who were either hurt the previous year or otherwise didn’t play much.
Only six of these 33 seasons involved quarterbacks simply playing better. Newton has two of those; he was a mediocre quarterback in 2014 and 2016 but very good the following seasons.
Carson Palmer (2005) and Blake Bortles (2015) got a lot better in their second seasons as starters (Bortles as a true sophomore; Palmer, remember, simply didn’t play at all in his first year).
Matt Ryan (2016) was kind of a second-year guy. He was in his ninth season at that point, but the Falcons brought in a new coordinator (Kyle Shanahan) and a new offense in 2015, which contributed to Ryan’s struggles.
Drew Bledsoe was the other big upwards mover. He simply wasn’t effective in 2004 but got things going with the Cowboys in 2005.
In my eyes, I see Newton as a last-round gamble kind of guy as a third (or fourth) quarterback. Not a guy I’d want to have to count on, but I’d have some interest in rostering him for the first few weeks of the season to see what he looks like.
UPWARD MOVERS AT QUARTERBACK | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yr | Pass | TDP | Run | TDR | PPR | Previous season |
2000 | Daunte Culpepper, Min. | 2 | 3,937 | 33 | 470 | 7 | 421.9 | no starts (rookie) |
2000 | Donovan McNabb, Phil. | 2 | 3,365 | 21 | 629 | 6 | 355.7 | 6 starts (rookie) |
2000 | Jeff Garcia, S.F. | 2 | 4,278 | 31 | 414 | 4 | 405.3 | 10 starts |
2001 | Aaron Brooks, N.O. | 3 | 3,832 | 26 | 358 | 1 | 339.4 | 5 starts (backup) |
2002 | Michael Vick, Atl. | 2 | 2,936 | 16 | 777 | 8 | 338.1 | 2 starts (rookie) |
2002 | Drew Bledsoe, Buff. | 10 | 4,359 | 24 | 67 | 2 | 332.7 | 2 starts (inj.) |
2003 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 4 | 3,845 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 313.8 | 7 starts (backup) |
2003 | Matt Hasselbeck, Sea. | 6 | 3,841 | 26 | 125 | 2 | 320.6 | 10 starts |
2004 | Jake Plummer, Den. | 8 | 4,089 | 27 | 202 | 1 | 338.7 | 11 starts |
2005 | Eli Manning, NYG | 2 | 3,762 | 24 | 80 | 1 | 300.1 | 7 starts (rookie) |
2005 | Drew Bledsoe, Dall. | 13 | 3,639 | 23 | 50 | 2 | 293.0 | 16 ineffective starts |
2005 | Carson Palmer, Cin. | 3 | 3,836 | 32 | 41 | 1 | 331.9 | 13 ineffective starts |
2006 | Jon Kitna, Det. | 10 | 4,208 | 21 | 156 | 2 | 322.0 | no starts (backup) |
2006 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 7 | 4,301 | 24 | 44 | 0 | 317.5 | 8 starts (inj.) |
2007 | Derek Anderson, Cle. | 3 | 3,787 | 29 | 70 | 3 | 332.4 | 3 starts (backup) |
2007 | Tony Romo, Dall. | 5 | 4,211 | 36 | 129 | 2 | 379.5 | 10 starts |
2008 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 4 | 4,038 | 28 | 207 | 4 | 362.6 | no starts (backup) |
2009 | Matt Schaub, Hou. | 6 | 4,770 | 29 | 57 | 0 | 362.2 | 11 starts |
2010 | Michael Vick, Phil. | 10 | 3,018 | 21 | 676 | 9 | 358.5 | 1 start (backup) |
2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 1 | 4,051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 448.9 | didn't play (college) |
2011 | Matthew Stafford, Det. | 3 | 5,038 | 41 | 78 | 0 | 427.7 | 3 starts (inj.) |
2014 | Aaron Rodgers, G.B. | 10 | 4,381 | 38 | 269 | 2 | 412.0 | 9 starts (inj.) |
2015 | Carson Palmer, Ariz. | 13 | 4,671 | 35 | 24 | 1 | 382.0 | 6 starts (inj.) |
2015 | Cam Newton, Car. | 5 | 3,837 | 35 | 636 | 10 | 455.5 | 14 ineffective starts |
2015 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 2 | 4,428 | 35 | 310 | 2 | 406.4 | 13 ineffective starts |
2016 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 5 | 4,240 | 31 | 341 | 2 | 386.1 | 7 starts (inj.) |
2016 | Matt Ryan, Atl. | 9 | 4,944 | 38 | 117 | 0 | 414.9 | 16 mediocre starts |
2017 | Cam Newton, Car. | 7 | 3,302 | 22 | 754 | 6 | 366.5 | 14 ineffective starts |
2017 | Tom Brady, N.E. | 18 | 4,577 | 32 | 28 | 0 | 363.7 | 12 starts |
2018 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 2 | 4,165 | 26 | 551 | 5 | 397.4 | 6 starts (inj.) |
2018 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 2 | 5,097 | 50 | 272 | 2 | 496.1 | 1 start (rookie) |
2019 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 5 | 5,109 | 33 | 250 | 1 | 426.5 | 9 starts |
2019 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 2 | 3,127 | 36 | 1206 | 7 | 463.0 | 7 starts (rookie) |
—Ian Allan