A followup to a post on David Montgomery the other day. I think he's a little underrated. We know that preseason hyperbole is rampant, so when Matt Nagy says the hope is to get Montgomery 20 carries per game, he's exaggerating. It's unlikely to happen. But what if it does?
Tarik Cohen and Damien Williams are the other noteworthy running backs on the roster, but Cohen is coming off a torn ACL and Williams opted out of last year. We can say with some degree of confidence that Montgomery will be a workhorse, in an offense led by either Andy Dalton or rookie Justin Fields (so they should run a lot).
Since 2000, there have been 76 running backs to play at least 15 games and average 20-plus carries per game. With that kind of workload, you're generally looking at a top-10 running back.
Of those 76 running backs, 57 have ranked in the top 10 at their position. That's exactly 75 percent. Only six have failed to rank at least in the top 15, held back by either not having a passing game role (Jerome Bettis) or not scoring enough (Willie Parker, Curtis Martin). Opportunity counts for a lot in this game of ours.
RBS WITH 20 CARRIES/GAME, 2000-PRESENT (15-16) GAMES | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | G | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | FF | Att/G | Rk |
2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 16 | 370 | 1880 | 15 | 78 | 28 | 378.8 | 23.1 | 1 |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 16 | 358 | 2006 | 50 | 503 | 16 | 398.9 | 22.4 | 1 |
2012 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 16 | 348 | 2097 | 40 | 217 | 13 | 351.4 | 21.8 | 1 |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 348 | 1815 | 56 | 508 | 31 | 483.3 | 21.8 | 1 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 16 | 327 | 1616 | 66 | 604 | 18 | 396.0 | 20.4 | 1 |
2004 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 16 | 322 | 1518 | 52 | 578 | 15 | 351.6 | 20.1 | 1 |
2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 16 | 320 | 1420 | 74 | 690 | 27 | 447.0 | 20.0 | 1 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 16 | 392 | 1845 | 57 | 416 | 13 | 361.1 | 24.5 | 2 |
2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 16 | 387 | 1709 | 63 | 594 | 18 | 403.3 | 24.2 | 2 |
2002 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 372 | 1683 | 79 | 489 | 15 | 386.2 | 23.3 | 2 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 16 | 346 | 1528 | 90 | 806 | 16 | 419.4 | 21.6 | 2 |
2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 339 | 1462 | 51 | 370 | 20 | 368.6 | 21.2 | 2 |
2015 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 16 | 327 | 1485 | 30 | 222 | 11 | 266.7 | 20.4 | 2 |
2001 | Priest Holmes, K.C. | 16 | 327 | 1555 | 62 | 614 | 10 | 338.9 | 20.4 | 2 |
2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 15 | 339 | 1335 | 53 | 441 | 18 | 340.5 | 22.6 | 2 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 322 | 1631 | 32 | 363 | 16 | 327.4 | 21.5 | 2 |
2017 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 15 | 321 | 1291 | 85 | 655 | 11 | 345.6 | 21.4 | 2 |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 16 | 416 | 1789 | 41 | 410 | 19 | 374.9 | 26.0 | 3 |
2000 | Eddie George, Ten. | 16 | 403 | 1509 | 50 | 453 | 16 | 342.2 | 25.2 | 3 |
2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 16 | 383 | 1853 | 47 | 363 | 17 | 370.6 | 23.9 | 3 |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 16 | 378 | 2027 | 19 | 114 | 17 | 337.1 | 23.6 | 3 |
2003 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 16 | 355 | 1883 | 50 | 367 | 20 | 395.0 | 22.2 | 3 |
2012 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 16 | 351 | 1424 | 40 | 217 | 17 | 306.1 | 21.9 | 3 |
2005 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 16 | 336 | 1750 | 33 | 343 | 21 | 368.3 | 21.0 | 3 |
2007 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 16 | 325 | 1262 | 47 | 389 | 11 | 282.9 | 20.3 | 3 |
2004 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 15 | 302 | 1188 | 68 | 588 | 14 | 329.6 | 20.1 | 3 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 16 | 387 | 2066 | 26 | 205 | 14 | 337.1 | 24.2 | 4 |
2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 16 | 376 | 1699 | 6 | 41 | 17 | 282.0 | 23.5 | 4 |
2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 16 | 357 | 1860 | 54 | 530 | 11 | 361.0 | 22.3 | 4 |
2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 16 | 353 | 1696 | 23 | 170 | 20 | 329.6 | 22.1 | 4 |
2011 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 16 | 343 | 1606 | 43 | 374 | 11 | 307.0 | 21.4 | 4 |
2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 16 | 371 | 1697 | 41 | 245 | 14 | 319.2 | 23.2 | 5 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 16 | 351 | 1641 | 69 | 516 | 8 | 332.7 | 21.9 | 5 |
2001 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 16 | 333 | 1513 | 53 | 320 | 10 | 301.2 | 20.8 | 5 |
2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 15 | 360 | 1506 | 44 | 337 | 14 | 312.3 | 24.0 | 5 |
2018 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 15 | 304 | 1434 | 77 | 567 | 9 | 331.1 | 20.3 | 5 |
2019 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 15 | 303 | 1540 | 18 | 206 | 18 | 300.6 | 20.2 | 5 |
2001 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 16 | 339 | 1236 | 59 | 367 | 10 | 279.3 | 21.2 | 6 |
2004 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 16 | 334 | 1548 | 51 | 483 | 9 | 310.1 | 20.9 | 6 |
2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG | 16 | 327 | 1662 | 58 | 465 | 5 | 300.7 | 20.4 | 6 |
2005 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 16 | 352 | 1516 | 30 | 216 | 11 | 276.1 | 22.0 | 7 |
2006 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 16 | 337 | 1494 | 31 | 222 | 16 | 298.6 | 21.1 | 7 |
2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 16 | 335 | 1613 | 11 | 77 | 13 | 258.0 | 20.9 | 7 |
2003 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 16 | 326 | 1435 | 42 | 295 | 16 | 311.0 | 20.4 | 7 |
2003 | Fred Taylor, Jac. | 16 | 345 | 1572 | 48 | 370 | 7 | 284.2 | 21.6 | 8 |
2001 | Corey Dillon, Cin. | 16 | 340 | 1315 | 34 | 228 | 13 | 266.3 | 21.3 | 8 |
2005 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 16 | 337 | 1458 | 23 | 90 | 12 | 249.8 | 21.1 | 8 |
2004 | Corey Dillon, N.E. | 15 | 345 | 1635 | 15 | 103 | 13 | 268.8 | 23.0 | 8 |
2002 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 15 | 325 | 1388 | 47 | 352 | 16 | 317.0 | 21.7 | 8 |
2009 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 15 | 324 | 1416 | 51 | 322 | 4 | 248.8 | 21.6 | 8 |
2003 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 16 | 392 | 1372 | 50 | 351 | 10 | 282.3 | 24.5 | 9 |
2008 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 16 | 363 | 1760 | 21 | 125 | 10 | 269.5 | 22.7 | 9 |
2009 | Thomas Jones, NYJ | 16 | 331 | 1402 | 10 | 58 | 14 | 240.0 | 20.7 | 9 |
2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 16 | 325 | 1438 | 43 | 309 | 14 | 301.7 | 20.3 | 9 |
2004 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 15 | 343 | 1315 | 40 | 235 | 7 | 241.8 | 22.9 | 9 |
2004 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 16 | 361 | 1454 | 15 | 84 | 12 | 240.8 | 22.6 | 10 |
2008 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 16 | 342 | 1487 | 28 | 218 | 9 | 252.5 | 21.4 | 10 |
2006 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 16 | 341 | 1309 | 23 | 124 | 12 | 238.3 | 21.3 | 11 |
2010 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 16 | 324 | 1273 | 23 | 167 | 13 | 245.0 | 20.3 | 11 |
2005 | Thomas Jones, Chi. | 15 | 314 | 1335 | 26 | 143 | 9 | 227.8 | 20.9 | 11 |
2010 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 16 | 330 | 1241 | 46 | 383 | 6 | 244.4 | 20.6 | 12 |
2000 | Stephen Davis, Was. | 15 | 332 | 1318 | 33 | 313 | 11 | 262.1 | 22.1 | 12 |
2007 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 16 | 324 | 1222 | 24 | 204 | 7 | 208.6 | 20.3 | 13 |
2003 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 15 | 331 | 1356 | 28 | 158 | 11 | 245.4 | 22.1 | 13 |
2000 | Lamar Smith, Mia. | 15 | 309 | 1139 | 31 | 201 | 16 | 261.0 | 20.6 | 13 |
2001 | Stephen Davis, Was. | 16 | 356 | 1432 | 28 | 205 | 5 | 223.7 | 22.3 | 14 |
2002 | Eddie George, Ten. | 16 | 343 | 1165 | 36 | 255 | 14 | 262.0 | 21.4 | 14 |
2010 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 16 | 334 | 1371 | 12 | 85 | 12 | 229.6 | 20.9 | 14 |
2006 | Chester Taylor, Min. | 15 | 303 | 1216 | 42 | 288 | 6 | 228.4 | 20.2 | 14 |
2000 | James Stewart, Det. | 16 | 339 | 1184 | 32 | 287 | 11 | 249.1 | 21.2 | 15 |
2005 | Willis McGahee, Buff. | 16 | 325 | 1247 | 28 | 178 | 5 | 200.5 | 20.3 | 16 |
2010 | Cedric Benson, Cin. | 16 | 321 | 1111 | 28 | 178 | 8 | 206.9 | 20.1 | 16 |
2006 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. | 16 | 337 | 1159 | 38 | 217 | 6 | 211.6 | 21.1 | 17 |
2003 | Curtis Martin, NYJ | 16 | 323 | 1308 | 42 | 262 | 2 | 211.0 | 20.2 | 18 |
2007 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 15 | 321 | 1316 | 23 | 164 | 2 | 183.0 | 21.4 | 20 |
2000 | Jerome Bettis, Pitt. | 16 | 355 | 1341 | 13 | 97 | 8 | 204.8 | 22.2 | 22 |
Twenty carries per game isn't easy, especially today. Last year Derrick Henry (pictured) was the only guy who did it. Not gonna happen for Montgomery, especially on what might be a losing team.
But a big workload for Montgomery, whatever it actually turns out being, should yield a really good running back.
--Andy Richardson