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Team projections

KCs, Bucs lead the way

Ranking the offenses, 1 thru 32

With fantasy football, we mostly focus on individual stats – the players who will finish with the most yards and touchdowns. But it can also be useful to look at teams in general. The best players, of course, tend to come from the best offenses.

With our grading system, we’ve got the teams and players tied together. At times we’ll increase the entire offense’s touchdown projection (raising all of its players a little). And we’ve got it set up so all of the individual player stats add up to the team total. (We would never have a team projected to finish with 30 TD passes that has four different players projecting to catch at least 8 TDs.)

About once a week, I try to get out the team numbers, showing you what we think of offenses in general. As it stands now, heading into the second full week of the season, we’ve got Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Green Bay projecting to finish with the highest-scoring offenses.

We’ve got three other offenses projecting to average at least 3 TDs per week: Ravens, Bills, Cowboys.

At the bottom right now, we’ve got the Texans, Lions and the two New York teams.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS
TeamTDPTDRTotal
Kansas City42.815.358.1
Tampa Bay40.017.957.8
Green Bay39.116.755.8
Baltimore30.121.952.0
Buffalo36.615.351.9
Dallas34.517.051.5
Cleveland30.120.750.8
Tennessee30.120.650.7
Seattle33.816.250.0
Minnesota32.516.348.8
San Francisco26.921.948.8
LA Rams31.816.348.1
Arizona28.618.947.4
LA Chargers33.813.447.3
New Orleans24.720.945.6
Las Vegas28.616.745.2
Indianapolis26.418.745.1
Pittsburgh30.113.643.7
New England23.318.742.0
Philadelphia23.617.741.3
Washington24.516.741.1
Atlanta28.212.640.8
Carolina22.418.040.5
Denver24.015.839.8
Jacksonville26.912.839.6
Cincinnati26.511.638.1
Miami24.113.938.1
Chicago23.813.337.1
NY Giants22.413.135.5
Detroit21.313.634.9
NY Jets20.913.634.5
Houston18.911.430.3

For passing production, we’ve got Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Buffalo as the top 3. That’s using standard scoring, with 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards. If you prefer 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards, I’ve added those as a final column, “Alt” (the results are almost identical, with just a few teams moving a spot or two).

TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDPPointsAlt
Kansas City3102.5246.125.6
Tampa Bay2912.3543.224.0
Buffalo2852.1541.422.9
Dallas2922.0341.422.7
Green Bay2682.3040.622.6
LA Chargers2781.9939.721.9
LA Rams2841.8739.621.7
Seattle2651.9938.421.2
Minnesota2601.9137.520.6
Pittsburgh2551.7736.119.8
Las Vegas2601.6836.119.7
Atlanta2551.6635.519.4
Cleveland2481.7735.419.5
Arizona2521.6835.319.3
Jacksonville2581.5835.319.2
Cincinnati2581.5635.219.1
Tennessee2451.7735.119.3
San Francisco2551.5835.019.1
Washington2501.4433.618.3
Carolina2531.3233.217.9
Indianapolis2381.5533.118.1
Denver2461.4133.117.9
Chicago2361.4032.017.4
Philadelphia2351.3931.817.3
Miami2331.4231.817.3
New England2351.3731.717.2
New Orleans2301.4531.717.3
Baltimore2031.7730.917.2
NY Giants2301.3230.916.8
Detroit2281.2530.316.4
NY Jets2251.2329.916.2
Houston2251.1129.215.7

For rushing production, I’ve got the three teams with an AAFC background at the top – Ravens, 49ers, Browns. San Francisco and New England have been rising, out of what I’ve seen in the preseason.

The Texans have a quarterback with above-average wheels, but with that team looking wildly dysfunctional, I’ve got them in last anyway – about a point per week behind teams like Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Atlanta.

TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS
OffenseYardsTDRPoints
Baltimore1831.2926.0
San Francisco1451.2922.2
Cleveland1421.2221.5
Tennessee1401.2121.3
Philadelphia1501.0421.2
New Orleans1301.2320.4
Indianapolis1281.1019.4
New England1251.1019.1
Arizona1231.1119.0
Minnesota128.9618.6
Seattle125.9518.2
Dallas1211.0018.1
Denver122.9317.8
Green Bay118.9817.7
Las Vegas118.9817.7
Carolina1111.0617.5
LA Rams117.9617.5
Kansas City113.9016.7
Tampa Bay1041.0516.7
Buffalo112.9016.6
Washington106.9816.5
NY Giants115.7716.1
NY Jets113.8016.1
Chicago114.7816.1
Detroit105.8015.3
LA Chargers105.7915.2
Miami103.8215.2
Pittsburgh102.8015.0
Atlanta104.7414.8
Jacksonville103.7514.8
Cincinnati105.6814.6
Houston97.6713.7

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index