Trey Lance. Justin Fields. Mac Jones. With each passing day, it becomes more apparent that these guys, like Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, are going to start this season, and maybe as soon as Week 1. It's a story that we've seen time and time again with first-round quarterbacks.

Coaches play lip service to the idea of incumbent veterans starting. "Jimmy G is our starter," says Kyle Shanahan. "Andy Dalton will be starting Week 1," says Matt Nagy. Bill Belichick doesn't say much, but if he did he'd probably have backed Cam Newton. And then things change, quickly.

To illustrate, I'm dragging out the numbers from the last 10 years (2011-2020). There have been 32 quarterbacks drafted in the first round in that decade. How many of those guys rode the bench for most of their rookie seasons? Quick answer: almost none.

Twenty-two out of 32 (69 percent) started at least 10 games in their rookie seasons. Twenty-six out of 32 (81 percent) started at least 7 games.

Of the remaining 6 players, one (Deshaun Watson) was starting in Week 2, and excelling, but got injured -- that's the only reason he didn't start 15 games.

The other five include two immediate busts (Paxton Lynch and Johnny Manziel), another who never made it to a second NFL contract (Jake Locker), the exception that proves the rule (Patrick Mahomes) and an unknown commodity (Jordan Love).

Bottom line: if you draft a quarterback in the first round, there's an 80 percent chance he'll start at least half the season (and most of them will start double-digit games, which is to say they'll be starting by the end of September more likely than not). The list of first-round quarterbacks from the past decade who don't make that many starts their rookie season is short and undistinguished. Except for Mahomes. We'll see on Love.

Table below shows rookie season stats, including fantasy rank (4-point TD passes, 6 point runs, 1 point for every 20 passing yards). Note that of the nine guys who started at least 15 games in their rookie season, five finished as top 10 fantasy quarterbacks.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2011-2020
PkYearPlayerGSPassTDRunTDPPRRk
12019Kyler Murray, Ariz.163722205444350.56
22016Carson Wentz, Phil.163782161502285.822
12015Jameis Winston, T.B.164042222136349.413
12012Andrew Luck, Ind.164374232555366.29
82012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.163294122112249.824
12011Cam Newton, Car.1640512170614448.93
62020Justin Herbert, LAC154336312345398.29
22012Robert Griffin, Was.153200208157363.510
222012Brandon Weeden, Cle.153385141110235.525
102011Blaine Gabbert, Jac.14221412980168.527
12018Baker Mayfield, Cle.133725271310311.417
32018Sam Darnold, NYJ132865171381231.124
102018Josh Rosen, Ariz.132278111380173.732
32014Blake Bortles, Jac.132908114190233.321
62019Daniel Jones, NYG123027242792291.320
22017Mitchell Trubisky, Chi.12219372482176.529
22015Marcus Mariota, Ten.122818192522271.222
322014Teddy Bridgewater, Min.122919142091232.922
72018Josh Allen, Buff.112074106318256.822
12020Joe Burrow, Cin.102688131423218.625
162013EJ Manuel, Buff.101972111862177.228
122011Christian Ponder, Min.101853132190166.628
52020Tua Tagovailoa, Mia.91814111093165.634
152019Dwayne Haskins, Was.7136571010108.433
322018Lamar Jackson, Balt.7120166955183.630
12016Jared Goff, LAR71089516182.137
122017Deshaun Watson, Hou.61699192692203.927
262016Paxton Lynch, Den.2497225035.443
222014Johnny Manziel, Cle.2175029117.753
102017Patrick Mahomes, K.C.1284010015.253
82011Jake Locker, Ten.0542456154.744
262020Jordan Love, G.B.000000--

If you're a Bears, Niners or Patriots fan, get ready for those rookie to be starting sooner rather than later. They almost always do.

--Andy Richardson