Dynasty Leagues

September 18, 2021

Long-term QB rankings

Can Jalen Hurts keep it going?

A subset of the fantasy community plays in the dynasty format, looking not just at this season, but 2022, 2023 and beyond. With those folks in mind, we turn our attention to long-range rankings each Saturday, rotating between the four major positions. We’re starting this season with the quarterbacks.

There are six notable movers from Week 1 – players who are at least 4 spots higher or lower in the rankings. And I’ll touch briefly on those.

Jalen Hurts climbs from 22nd up to 14th. There has been discussion and optimism about Trey Lance and Justin Fields, the hope being that those rookies can develop into pass-run threats. You get those kind players going, and they can put up top-10 fantasy numbers. But while I like those guys just fine, Hurts is one of those guys right now – today. So if I’m picking between those guys right now, I’ll take the one who’s already producing.

Hurts had slipped down into 20s on my board out of fear he wouldn’t be a good enough quarterback. The Eagles had been linked with Deshaun Watson, and were he to be traded to the Eagles, Hurts would be on the bench in a hurry. But I don’t think that’s happening. Hurts looks fine, and could be a really nice fantasy option for the 2021 and 2022 seasons.

Lance will be good, but it’s looking like we’ll have to wait for him. I imagine he’ll get into the starting lineup at some point this year (maybe in a month or so). But it probably won’t be until next year that he starts paying fantasy dividends. So I’ve got Lance falling from 10th to 15th on my board.

The other most notable movers are in Washington, with Ryan Fitzpatrick (hip) out for at least half the year. He’s 38, and we may have seen the last of him as a fantasy relevant player. Taylor Heinicke, meanwhile, takes that job, and he gets the opportunity now to show what he can do; he held up well on Thursday.

In the chart below, some players have black dots in front of their names. Those are the rookies. The players who moved at least five spots are in bold. Final column shows where they ranked in our final dynasty rankings in the preseason.

For these rankings, I’m assuming it’s a 12-team league, which each team starting one quarterback and carrying perhaps three. So once you’ve got the starting spot filled, you’re thinking about guys who might be really good in 2022 or 2023. I’ve got Deshaun Watson at 11th, figuring he probably won’t be a factor this year but could be a top-5 quarterback in a bunch of the next five years (so he’s more valuable, I think, than guys like Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield, even if they’ll be more productive this season).

DYNASTY RANKINGS (QUARTERBACKS)
Rk	Tm	Player	Age	Prev
1.	KC	Patrick Mahomes	26	1
2.	BUF	Josh Allen	25	2
3.	LAC	Justin Herbert	23	3
4.	DAL	Dak Prescott	28	4
5.	SEA	Russell Wilson	32	5
6.	ARI	Kyler Murray	24	6
7.	BAL	Lamar Jackson	24	7
8.	JAC	• Trevor Lawrence	21	9
9.	GB	Aaron Rodgers	37	8
10.	LAR	Matthew Stafford	33	12
11.	HOU	Deshaun Watson	26	11
12.	TB	Tom Brady	44	13
13.	CIN	Joe Burrow	24	14
14.	PHI	Jalen Hurts	23	22
15.	SF	• Trey Lance	21	10
16.	CLE	Baker Mayfield	26	15
17.	CHI	• Justin Fields	22	16
18.	LV	Derek Carr	30	18
19.	NE	• Mac Jones	23	19
20.	TEN	Ryan Tannehill	33	17
21.	NYJ	• Zach Wilson	22	20
22.	MIN	Kirk Cousins	33	21
23.	NO	Jameis Winston	27	26
24.	GB	Jordan Love	22	24
25.	MIA	Tua Tagovailoa	23	23
26.	NYG	Daniel Jones	24	29
27.	IND	Carson Wentz	28	28
28.	ATL	Matt Ryan	36	25
29.	DEN	Teddy Bridgewater	28	33
30.	CAR	Sam Darnold	24	27
31.	DET	Jared Goff	26	32
32.	PIT	Ben Roethlisberger	39	30
33.	SF	Jimmy Garoppolo	29	38
34.	WAS	Taylor Heinicke	28	45
35.	PHI	Gardner Minshew	26	34
36.	HOU	Tyrod Taylor	32	39
37.	IND	Jacob Eason	23	35
38.	DEN	Drew Lock	24	36
39.	WAS	Ryan Fitzpatrick	38	31
40.	NO	Taysom Hill	31	37
41.	HOU	• Davis Mills	22	41
42.	BUF	Mitchell Trubisky	27	40
43.	LV	Marcus Mariota	27	42
44.	MIN	• Kellen Mond	22	43
45.	ARI	Colt McCoy	35	50
46.	CLE	Case Keenum	33	49
47.	CHI	Andy Dalton	33	44
48.	UFA	Cam Newton	32	46
49.	BAL	Tyler Huntley	23	47
50.	LAC	Easton Stick	26	48

Next week: Running backs.

—Ian Allan

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