We released our revised player rankings earlier today. Those are overall projections – an indication of what we think the players will do for the remaining 16 weeks of the season. But behind those individual numbers, we can also look at expectations for teams.
In our system, all of the stats are tied together. That is, when you project a quarterback to throw 40 touchdowns, those scores get divided up amongst his various pass catchers. There are pros and cons to such an approach, and I bend things just a little here and there (to account for the dynamic that a player who’s only 90 percent as good over the course of the season can be more valuable for fantasy purposes if he’s generating those stats in fewer games – at least in some formats).
Nonetheless, we have an eye on the overall value of offenses. They are significant factors in things, just like the individual players. So makes sense to look at the 1 thru 32 team rankings regularly.
In terms of putting the ball in the end zone, the Bucs to me look like the best team to me. I think they’re going to close with around 60 touchdowns (that would be their total if we were starting a new 17-game season today – the numbers below don’t include what’s already happened).
The numbers below might seem high, with the middle teams at almost 44 touchdowns, but keep in mind there’s the extra game this year. If they were playing 16 games, those teams would be at about 41.
| OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Pass | Run | Total |
| Tampa Bay | 42.2 | 17.3 | 59.5 |
| Kansas City | 42.8 | 15.0 | 57.8 |
| Green Bay | 39.1 | 16.2 | 55.3 |
| Dallas | 35.7 | 17.9 | 53.6 |
| Buffalo | 36.0 | 16.0 | 52.0 |
| Seattle | 36.6 | 15.0 | 51.5 |
| Cleveland | 28.7 | 22.6 | 51.3 |
| Baltimore | 29.8 | 21.3 | 51.0 |
| Tennessee | 29.4 | 21.3 | 50.7 |
| Arizona | 32.3 | 17.7 | 50.0 |
| LA Rams | 33.2 | 16.3 | 49.5 |
| Minnesota | 32.3 | 16.2 | 48.5 |
| San Francisco | 26.7 | 20.6 | 47.3 |
| Las Vegas | 30.4 | 16.3 | 46.8 |
| LA Chargers | 34.0 | 12.2 | 46.2 |
| New Orleans | 24.7 | 19.4 | 44.0 |
| Indianapolis | 25.2 | 18.4 | 43.5 |
| Philadelphia | 24.3 | 18.7 | 43.0 |
| Carolina | 24.7 | 17.9 | 42.5 |
| New England | 23.0 | 18.7 | 41.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 29.4 | 11.7 | 41.1 |
| Denver | 25.0 | 16.0 | 41.0 |
| Cincinnati | 28.1 | 12.8 | 40.9 |
| Atlanta | 26.7 | 11.1 | 37.7 |
| Detroit | 23.6 | 14.1 | 37.7 |
| Miami | 23.8 | 13.9 | 37.7 |
| Washington | 23.0 | 13.8 | 36.7 |
| Jacksonville | 25.0 | 11.2 | 36.2 |
| NY Giants | 22.6 | 13.4 | 36.0 |
| Chicago | 21.3 | 14.4 | 35.6 |
| NY Jets | 23.0 | 11.6 | 34.5 |
| Houston | 20.9 | 13.4 | 34.3 |
For passing production, I’ve got Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Dallas as my top 3.
The Saints (and this is hard to say, with Sean Payton being the coach) are down at 30th. They’ve passed for only 151 and 111 yards in their first two games, and I think the days of them passing it all over have been put on the shelf for now.
Teams here ordered assuming 6 points for touchdown passes and 1 for every 10 passing yards (the order would be about the same if using 4 for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards).
| PER GAME PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDP | Points |
| Kansas City | 315 | 2.52 | 46.6 |
| Tampa Bay | 285 | 2.48 | 43.4 |
| Dallas | 285 | 2.10 | 41.1 |
| LA Chargers | 290 | 2.00 | 41.0 |
| LA Rams | 292 | 1.95 | 40.9 |
| Buffalo | 278 | 2.12 | 40.5 |
| Green Bay | 265 | 2.30 | 40.3 |
| Seattle | 265 | 2.15 | 39.4 |
| Arizona | 270 | 1.90 | 38.4 |
| Las Vegas | 275 | 1.79 | 38.2 |
| Minnesota | 265 | 1.90 | 37.9 |
| Pittsburgh | 260 | 1.73 | 36.4 |
| Cleveland | 255 | 1.69 | 35.6 |
| Cincinnati | 255 | 1.65 | 35.4 |
| San Francisco | 255 | 1.57 | 34.9 |
| Atlanta | 253 | 1.57 | 34.7 |
| Tennessee | 240 | 1.73 | 34.4 |
| Carolina | 255 | 1.45 | 34.2 |
| Indianapolis | 245 | 1.48 | 33.4 |
| Denver | 245 | 1.47 | 33.3 |
| Jacksonville | 242 | 1.47 | 33.0 |
| Baltimore | 225 | 1.75 | 33.0 |
| Philadelphia | 240 | 1.43 | 32.6 |
| Detroit | 238 | 1.39 | 32.1 |
| NY Giants | 240 | 1.33 | 32.0 |
| Miami | 234 | 1.40 | 31.8 |
| New England | 235 | 1.35 | 31.6 |
| NY Jets | 235 | 1.35 | 31.6 |
| Washington | 235 | 1.35 | 31.6 |
| New Orleans | 225 | 1.45 | 31.2 |
| Houston | 225 | 1.23 | 29.9 |
| Chicago | 220 | 1.25 | 29.5 |
For team rushing, I’ve got Baltimore and Cleveland at the top, with the Browns doing it in the more conventional way. The Eagles and Titans aren’t far behind.
At the bottom, I’m going with the Steelers and Jaguars. Pittsburgh talked about wanting to run more (and more effectively) but they haven’t been able to get that going.
Teams ordered here by 1 point for every 10 rushing yards and 6 for every rushing touchdown.
| PER GAME RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Yards | TDR | Points |
| Baltimore | 190 | 1.25 | 26.5 |
| Cleveland | 145 | 1.33 | 22.5 |
| Philadelphia | 155 | 1.10 | 22.1 |
| Tennessee | 140 | 1.25 | 21.5 |
| San Francisco | 130 | 1.21 | 20.3 |
| New Orleans | 128 | 1.14 | 19.6 |
| Dallas | 125 | 1.06 | 18.8 |
| Indianapolis | 123 | 1.08 | 18.8 |
| Minnesota | 130 | .95 | 18.7 |
| New England | 120 | 1.10 | 18.6 |
| Chicago | 130 | .85 | 18.1 |
| Arizona | 116 | 1.04 | 17.8 |
| Buffalo | 118 | .94 | 17.4 |
| Denver | 118 | .94 | 17.4 |
| Las Vegas | 112 | .96 | 17.0 |
| LA Rams | 111 | .96 | 16.9 |
| Carolina | 105 | 1.05 | 16.8 |
| Seattle | 115 | .88 | 16.8 |
| Green Bay | 110 | .95 | 16.7 |
| Detroit | 110 | .83 | 16.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 97 | 1.02 | 15.8 |
| Houston | 110 | .79 | 15.7 |
| Kansas City | 100 | .88 | 15.3 |
| Washington | 104 | .81 | 15.3 |
| NY Giants | 105 | .79 | 15.2 |
| Miami | 103 | .82 | 15.2 |
| Cincinnati | 106 | .76 | 15.1 |
| Atlanta | 97 | .65 | 13.6 |
| NY Jets | 95 | .68 | 13.6 |
| LA Chargers | 90 | .72 | 13.3 |
| Jacksonville | 90 | .66 | 13.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 83 | .69 | 12.4 |
—Ian Allan