With the regular season now over a quarter complete, we all have a better idea of what offenses are about. (At least we think we do.) Every team has had a chance to play five games, giving people ample opportunity to set aside outlier games affected by playing against strong or weak opposition. We are all now creating firmer opinions about which offenses will finish the season with the most yards and points.
To me, it’s more up in the air at this point than in a usual season. I see four teams that I think have a chance to maybe lead the league in scoring, with another half dozen that aren’t far behind.
Dallas, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Kansas City, in my opinion, are the offenses with the best chance of maybe averaging 4 TDs per week. That’s the way I’ve got them right now (and these projections are tied to the individual player numbers that went out earlier today).
I’ve got three offenses, meanwhile, projecting to average fewer than 2 TDs per game, and neither of them are the Lions or Texans, who have both punched above their weight thus far.
OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWN PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Pass | Run | Total |
Dallas | 40.0 | 22.1 | 62.1 |
Buffalo | 40.0 | 20.6 | 60.5 |
Tampa Bay | 43.7 | 14.8 | 58.5 |
Kansas City | 43.4 | 14.6 | 58.0 |
Arizona | 33.2 | 22.1 | 55.3 |
LA Chargers | 39.6 | 14.6 | 54.2 |
Green Bay | 37.4 | 16.7 | 54.1 |
LA Rams | 37.4 | 16.3 | 53.7 |
Cleveland | 22.1 | 28.9 | 51.0 |
Baltimore | 28.4 | 22.0 | 50.4 |
San Francisco | 23.8 | 26.1 | 49.9 |
New Orleans | 26.4 | 20.4 | 46.8 |
Seattle | 30.1 | 15.6 | 45.7 |
Tennessee | 22.6 | 22.6 | 45.2 |
Cincinnati | 32.0 | 13.1 | 45.1 |
Carolina | 23.3 | 20.4 | 43.7 |
Minnesota | 30.8 | 12.8 | 43.6 |
Indianapolis | 26.4 | 17.2 | 43.6 |
Philadelphia | 27.4 | 16.2 | 43.5 |
Las Vegas | 28.9 | 13.1 | 42.0 |
Washington | 26.4 | 15.0 | 41.4 |
Jacksonville | 22.1 | 16.2 | 38.3 |
Denver | 24.3 | 13.9 | 38.3 |
Atlanta | 29.8 | 8.5 | 38.3 |
New England | 22.6 | 14.6 | 37.2 |
NY Giants | 23.3 | 13.9 | 37.2 |
Detroit | 22.6 | 13.5 | 36.1 |
Pittsburgh | 24.0 | 12.2 | 36.1 |
Houston | 24.0 | 11.6 | 35.6 |
Chicago | 17.0 | 16.2 | 33.2 |
Miami | 19.6 | 11.1 | 30.8 |
NY Jets | 20.4 | 9.4 | 29.8 |
For passing production, I’ve got Tampa Bay, Kansas City and the two Los Angeles teams at the top. That’s using 6 points for touchdowns and 1 for every 10 yards. (If you instead use 4 points for TD passes and 1 for every 20 yards, the ordering would be similar.)
TEAM PASSING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDP | Pts |
Tampa Bay | 310 | 2.57 | 46.4 |
Kansas City | 290 | 2.55 | 44.3 |
LA Rams | 300 | 2.20 | 43.2 |
LA Chargers | 290 | 2.33 | 43.0 |
Buffalo | 280 | 2.35 | 42.1 |
Dallas | 265 | 2.35 | 40.6 |
Green Bay | 265 | 2.20 | 39.7 |
Arizona | 272 | 1.95 | 38.9 |
Minnesota | 270 | 1.81 | 37.9 |
Cincinnati | 260 | 1.89 | 37.3 |
Baltimore | 265 | 1.67 | 36.5 |
Atlanta | 260 | 1.75 | 36.5 |
Philadelphia | 262 | 1.61 | 35.9 |
Las Vegas | 255 | 1.70 | 35.7 |
Seattle | 242 | 1.77 | 34.8 |
Indianapolis | 255 | 1.55 | 34.8 |
NY Giants | 260 | 1.37 | 34.2 |
Denver | 250 | 1.43 | 33.6 |
Washington | 242 | 1.55 | 33.5 |
Pittsburgh | 248 | 1.41 | 33.3 |
Carolina | 248 | 1.37 | 33.0 |
New Orleans | 235 | 1.55 | 32.8 |
New England | 245 | 1.33 | 32.5 |
Tennessee | 240 | 1.33 | 32.0 |
Cleveland | 240 | 1.30 | 31.8 |
Detroit | 235 | 1.33 | 31.5 |
San Francisco | 230 | 1.40 | 31.4 |
Jacksonville | 230 | 1.30 | 30.8 |
Houston | 215 | 1.41 | 30.0 |
NY Jets | 220 | 1.20 | 29.2 |
Miami | 210 | 1.16 | 27.9 |
Chicago | 185 | 1.00 | 24.5 |
For rushing production, I’ve got the Browns, 49ers and Cowboys at the top. Cleveland in particular has been tough, running for over 150 yards in every game. For the San Francisco projection, it’s not a true forecast – the numbers you see below here are what I would expect from them if Trey Lance were starting all of their remaining games. They will drop well behind the Cowboys and Titans when Jimmy Garoppolo is under center.
TEAM RUSHING PROJECTIONS | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | Yards | TDR | Pts |
Cleveland | 170 | 1.70 | 27.2 |
San Francisco | 170 | 1.54 | 26.2 |
Dallas | 155 | 1.30 | 23.3 |
Tennessee | 150 | 1.33 | 23.0 |
Baltimore | 130 | 1.30 | 20.8 |
Buffalo | 135 | 1.21 | 20.8 |
New Orleans | 130 | 1.20 | 20.2 |
Arizona | 120 | 1.30 | 19.8 |
Chicago | 130 | .95 | 18.7 |
Indianapolis | 120 | 1.01 | 18.1 |
Carolina | 108 | 1.20 | 18.0 |
Jacksonville | 120 | .95 | 17.7 |
Philadelphia | 120 | .95 | 17.7 |
Green Bay | 112 | .98 | 17.1 |
Kansas City | 118 | .86 | 17.0 |
LA Rams | 110 | .96 | 16.8 |
Seattle | 107 | .92 | 16.2 |
Denver | 112 | .82 | 16.1 |
Minnesota | 115 | .76 | 16.0 |
Washington | 105 | .89 | 15.8 |
New England | 105 | .86 | 15.6 |
NY Giants | 100 | .82 | 14.9 |
Detroit | 100 | .80 | 14.8 |
LA Chargers | 95 | .86 | 14.7 |
Cincinnati | 98 | .77 | 14.4 |
Tampa Bay | 90 | .87 | 14.2 |
Las Vegas | 85 | .77 | 13.1 |
Pittsburgh | 88 | .72 | 13.1 |
Houston | 87 | .69 | 12.8 |
Atlanta | 90 | .50 | 12.0 |
Miami | 80 | .66 | 11.9 |
NY Jets | 80 | .55 | 11.3 |
—Ian Allan