Zach Wilson is playing against New England again today. Is he a better quarterback now than he was a month ago? Or are we going to see another game with a bunch of sacks and interceptions?
It wasn’t pretty back in Week 2. Wilson threw 4 interceptions, while the Jets managed to put only a pair of field goals on the scoreboard.
But Wilson, of course, now has another month’s worth of experience under his belt. He also has ample film showing him what plays don’t work against this defense. Is there any chance of him turning things around.
For these kind of things, I like to look at what other quarterbacks in similar situations have done in the past. That is, when we see a young quarterback crash and burn against a team in his own division, how do those players tend to fare when the two sides met again later in the year?
It turns out there are 16 quarterbacks in the last 20 years who’ve thrown at least 3 interceptions against an opponent, then come back and played against that same team again later in the year. (Actually, 15 true rookies; I’m also including Carson Palmer, since he didn’t play in his first year.)
Of these 16 quarterbacks, 9 put up better numbers in the rematch games. But seven finished with even lesser numbers (and by “numbers”, I’m taking fantasy points – a mix of yards and touchdowns).
As a group, these 16 quarterbacks in their initial disaster games completed only 52 percent of their passes and averaged 213 passing yards, with 10 TDs and 52 interceptions.
Later in the year, we had those same 16 quarterbacks working against the same defenses. In the 16 follow-up games, the quarterbacks improved to 60 percent passing and dialed the interceptions down to only 15. (Big improvement in the picks – from about 3 interceptions per game to only about 1). But these passers averaged only 222 passing yards (an increase of only 8 per game), and with only 16 TD passes.
I would not expect much from the Jets today. I would be surprised if they score more than 2 TDs, and I would think there’s a chance they get in the end zone less than twice.
| ROOKIE QUARTERBACK REMATCHES | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Opp | 1st meeting | 2nd meeting |
| 2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | S.F. | 29-47-3-275 1 TD | 22-41-0-177 2 TD |
| 2002 | Joey Harrington, Det. | G.B. | 15-35-4-182 2 TD | 20-44-2-236 2 TD |
| 2003 | Byron Leftwich, Jac. | Hou. | 17-36-3-231 1 TD | 18-29-0-194 1 TD |
| 2004 | Carson Palmer*, Cin. | Balt. | 25-52-3-316 0 TD | 29-36-1-382 3 TD |
| 2006 | Vince Young, Ten. | Jac. | 15-36-3-163 1 TD | 8-15-0-85 0 TD |
| 2009 | Josh Freeman, T.B. | N.O. | 17-33-3-126 1 TD | 21-31-2-271 0 TD |
| 2009 | Mark Sanchez, NYJ | Buff. | 10-29-5-119 0 TD | 7-15-0-104 1 TD |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford, St.L. | Ariz. | 32-55-3-253 1 TD | 18-29-1-187 0 TD |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | Balt. | 24-45-3-373 1 TD | 22-44-0-232 0 TD |
| 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | Atl. | 21-35-3-237 0 TD | 19-39-2-276 2 TD |
| 2012 | Russell Wilson, Sea. | St.L. | 17-25-3-160 0 TD | 15-19-0-250 1 TD |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | N.E. | 15-35-3-214 0 TD | 17-33-1-233 1 TD |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | Det. | 23-37-3-188 0 TD | 31-41-2-315 1 TD |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | Car. | 26-43-4-287 2 TD | 29-47-2-325 0 TD |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Cle. | Balt. | 15-31-3-182 0 TD | 20-37-2-146 0 TD |
| 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | NYG | 9-17-3-107 0 TD | 12-15-0-133 2 TD |
| 2020 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | N.E. | 19-33-4-210 0 TD | play in Week 7 |
| 2020 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | Hou. | 28-51-3-332 3 TD | play in Week 15 |
—Ian Allan