Ian Allan answers your fantasy football questions. In this edition. What's wrong with the Chargers? Is Alexander Mattison about to explode? When is Derrick Henry coming back? And defenses with the best matchups for the playoffs.
Question 1
Ian, thanks for your work as always. Someone recently offered me Mattison and Mike Williams for Tony Pollard and Nick Chubb. We are both at the top of the standings and he would effectively have Dallas running game, Chubb, and Barkley. Should I pull the trigger? Would you be more comfortable rolling with Fournette, Mattison, and Jacobs than Fournette, Chubb, and Jacobs? I'm in first place and worried about upsetting the apple cart. That said, Cleveland losing their RT and Hunt being back makes me think this is the best I'll get for Chubb.
Sherif Elmazi (Hong Kong)
I sure like Alexander Mattison. Cook isn’t playing in the next two games, and those are against the Lions and Steelers, who have two of the very worst run defenses in the league right now. In each of the last three games Mattison has started, he’s put up over 145 total yards. He’s a much more prolific pass catcher than Chubb. Mattison definitely will outperform Chubb and Pollard in Weeks 13-14. When we get in Week 15, I’m not sure if Cook is back. Probably not. And I’m not sure what the format of your competition is. If this is a deal where you’re playing in big postseason games later, you may want to have Chubb around for Week 15 against the Raiders or Week 17 against Pittsburgh.
Question 2
Are the Chargers broken?
Donald DeKeyser (Green Bay, WI)
It sure seems that way. They can’t stop the run. The defense isn’t very good. They can’t really run the ball – there’s no traditional running game. And they don’t have a speedy, downfield receiver. I don’t understand why Cincinnati, playing at home, is favored by only 3 against them. To me, Bengals look like the much better and more complete team. Chargers to me look like a team that’s collected some pieces and is one it’s way, but one that’s really more of a 2022 group.
Question 3
My league’s playoffs are weeks 15 - 17, and I’m pretty sure I’ll make it in. Do you see Derrick Henry coming back and helping me at some point, or should I cut him loose and use the spot to try to bolster my roster?
Jeff Emmett (Tacoma, WA)
Henry is rehabbing his injury. One of the league insider types – Rapoport, I think – says he’s not playing again in 2021. A couple of other reports suggest Henry might make it back for the playoffs. Unlikely, I think, that Henry makes it onto the field in a regular season game. If that were to happen, it most likely would be in Week 18, and perhaps in a limited role. If I were running the Jeff Emmett franchise, I would release Henry to open up that roster spot (perhaps pick up a kicker or defense with an appealing matchup in Week 15-17).
Question 4
Who would be the defenses to start in the playoff weeks (outside of the obvious ones)? For instance, in Week 16 KC plays Pitt. Is KC an option there?
Bill Petilli (Weston, FL)
If we take the average production of each defense and compare it against the average production of each offense, it should give us a reasonable estimate for what to expect – a good starting point (that doesn’t account for injuries, current form or COVID vaccination cards). That it, you look at the average number of sacks, interceptions and fumbles generated by each defense, and blend those with the same numbers from the offenses. (There is more chance involved with touchdowns, so I’m leaving those out.)
If we follow this process for the 96 defenses (2 teams x 48 games) playing in Weeks 15-17, we get some idea of what to expect. By this process, Tampa Bay in Week 17 (against the Jets) has the best remaining defenses, coming in ahead of the Week 15 Dolphins (vs. Jets), Week 16 Bucs (vs. Panthers) and Week 15 Bills (vs. Panthers). The Week 17 Jaguars (vs. Patriots) have the worst of these 96 defenses.
You asked specifically about Kansas City against Pittsburgh. That one comes in at 66th of the 96 defenses. (This is a process driven solely by numbers, and doesn’t factor in that KC is playing better now than it was back in September).
On the chart below, "points" assumes 2 for each takeaway and 1 for each sack.
| DEFENSIVE ESTIMATES FOR WEEKS 15-17 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk | Defense | Opp | Sack | Int | Fum | Pts |
| 17 | Tampa Bay | NYJ | 2.64 | 1.50 | .64 | 6.91 |
| 15 | Miami | NYJ | 2.58 | 1.28 | .60 | 6.34 |
| 16 | Tampa Bay | Car. | 2.52 | 1.26 | .62 | 6.28 |
| 15 | Buffalo | Car. | 2.25 | 1.35 | .62 | 6.19 |
| 17 | New England | Jac. | 2.16 | 1.25 | .66 | 5.97 |
| 15 | Green Bay | Balt. | 2.80 | 1.09 | .47 | 5.93 |
| 17 | LA Rams | Balt. | 3.00 | 1.14 | .32 | 5.91 |
| 17 | Miami | Ten. | 2.54 | .96 | .71 | 5.88 |
| 17 | Buffalo | Atl. | 1.91 | 1.36 | .59 | 5.82 |
| 16 | Cincinnati | Balt. | 2.91 | 1.05 | .36 | 5.73 |
| 17 | NY Giants | Chi. | 2.64 | 1.05 | .50 | 5.73 |
| 15 | Minnesota | Chi. | 3.18 | .86 | .41 | 5.73 |
| 15 | Arizona | Det. | 2.59 | .73 | .77 | 5.59 |
| 15 | Houston | Jac. | 2.05 | 1.09 | .68 | 5.59 |
| 16 | New England | Buff. | 2.02 | 1.29 | .48 | 5.56 |
| 17 | New Orleans | Car. | 2.43 | 1.22 | .34 | 5.55 |
| 15 | Indianapolis | N.E. | 2.04 | .92 | .83 | 5.54 |
| 17 | Indianapolis | L.V. | 2.18 | .99 | .68 | 5.52 |
| 16 | Buffalo | N.E. | 1.95 | 1.06 | .70 | 5.48 |
| 16 | Indianapolis | Ariz. | 2.22 | .95 | .68 | 5.47 |
| 16 | New Orleans | Mia. | 2.34 | 1.01 | .55 | 5.47 |
| 15 | New England | Ind. | 2.13 | 1.04 | .63 | 5.46 |
| 17 | Cincinnati | K.C. | 2.18 | .95 | .68 | 5.45 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | Ten. | 2.74 | .77 | .56 | 5.40 |
| 16 | Dallas | Was. | 2.18 | 1.14 | .45 | 5.36 |
| 17 | Arizona | Dall. | 2.23 | .73 | .82 | 5.32 |
| 15 | Tampa Bay | N.O. | 2.09 | .95 | .64 | 5.27 |
| 17 | Houston | S.F. | 2.09 | .95 | .64 | 5.27 |
| 16 | Green Bay | Cle. | 2.58 | .75 | .58 | 5.25 |
| 17 | Tennessee | Mia. | 2.42 | .79 | .63 | 5.25 |
| 16 | San Francisco | Ten. | 2.47 | .77 | .61 | 5.22 |
| 16 | Pittsburgh | K.C. | 2.27 | .73 | .73 | 5.18 |
| 16 | Arizona | Ind. | 2.19 | .61 | .88 | 5.17 |
| 15 | Denver | Cin. | 2.59 | 1.00 | .27 | 5.14 |
| 17 | San Francisco | Hou. | 2.50 | .77 | .55 | 5.14 |
| 15 | Dallas | NYG | 2.14 | 1.09 | .41 | 5.14 |
| 16 | LA Chargers | Hou. | 2.36 | .86 | .50 | 5.09 |
| 15 | Cincinnati | Den. | 2.68 | .77 | .41 | 5.05 |
| 16 | Jacksonville | NYJ | 2.27 | 1.09 | .27 | 5.00 |
| 17 | Dallas | Ariz. | 2.27 | 1.05 | .32 | 5.00 |
| 16 | Houston | LAC | 2.09 | 1.09 | .36 | 5.00 |
| 17 | Kansas City | Cin. | 2.23 | 1.00 | .36 | 4.95 |
| 15 | NY Giants | Dall. | 1.86 | .95 | .59 | 4.95 |
| 15 | LA Chargers | K.C. | 1.86 | .82 | .73 | 4.95 |
| 15 | LA Rams | Sea. | 2.95 | .73 | .27 | 4.95 |
| 15 | NY Jets | Mia. | 2.34 | .60 | .64 | 4.83 |
| 17 | Cleveland | Pitt. | 2.38 | .78 | .44 | 4.82 |
| 17 | Pittsburgh | Cle. | 2.78 | .48 | .52 | 4.77 |
| 16 | Seattle | Chi. | 2.50 | .68 | .45 | 4.77 |
| 16 | Baltimore | Cin. | 2.50 | .77 | .36 | 4.77 |
| 17 | Chicago | NYG | 2.50 | .64 | .50 | 4.77 |
| 15 | Tennessee | Pitt. | 2.30 | .69 | .53 | 4.74 |
| 15 | Las Vegas | Cle. | 2.55 | .43 | .66 | 4.73 |
| 16 | Las Vegas | Den. | 2.55 | .50 | .59 | 4.73 |
| 16 | Minnesota | LAR | 2.27 | .86 | .36 | 4.73 |
| 15 | Carolina | Buff. | 2.11 | .83 | .48 | 4.73 |
| 16 | Miami | N.O. | 2.03 | .73 | .60 | 4.70 |
| 16 | Tennessee | S.F. | 2.16 | .69 | .57 | 4.69 |
| 15 | Cleveland | L.V. | 2.43 | .87 | .26 | 4.69 |
| 16 | Chicago | Sea. | 3.05 | .41 | .41 | 4.68 |
| 15 | San Francisco | Atl. | 2.05 | .86 | .45 | 4.68 |
| 16 | NY Giants | Phil. | 1.83 | .92 | .48 | 4.64 |
| 16 | Denver | L.V. | 2.36 | .86 | .27 | 4.64 |
| 15 | New Orleans | T.B. | 1.82 | 1.00 | .41 | 4.64 |
| 16 | NY Jets | Jac. | 2.05 | .64 | .64 | 4.59 |
| 16 | Kansas City | Pitt. | 1.95 | .77 | .55 | 4.59 |
| 17 | LA Chargers | Den. | 2.36 | .64 | .45 | 4.55 |
| 16 | Carolina | T.B. | 2.02 | .74 | .52 | 4.55 |
| 16 | Detroit | Atl. | 1.68 | 1.00 | .41 | 4.50 |
| 17 | Minnesota | G.B. | 2.46 | .62 | .39 | 4.47 |
| 15 | Jacksonville | Hou. | 2.27 | .77 | .32 | 4.45 |
| 17 | Carolina | N.O. | 2.20 | .65 | .48 | 4.45 |
| 17 | Denver | LAC | 2.18 | .91 | .23 | 4.45 |
| 16 | Washington | Dall. | 1.91 | .64 | .59 | 4.36 |
| 17 | Las Vegas | Ind. | 2.01 | .43 | .74 | 4.35 |
| 15 | Philadelphia | Was. | 1.88 | .79 | .44 | 4.34 |
| 17 | Philadelphia | Was. | 1.88 | .79 | .44 | 4.34 |
| 15 | Kansas City | LAC | 1.82 | .91 | .32 | 4.27 |
| 17 | Seattle | Det. | 2.09 | .59 | .50 | 4.27 |
| 16 | Cleveland | G.B. | 2.25 | .67 | .33 | 4.25 |
| 16 | Atlanta | Det. | 1.95 | .59 | .55 | 4.23 |
| 17 | Green Bay | Min. | 1.85 | .64 | .52 | 4.16 |
| 17 | Detroit | Sea. | 2.32 | .55 | .36 | 4.14 |
| 16 | LA Rams | Min. | 2.05 | .68 | .36 | 4.14 |
| 16 | Philadelphia | NYG | 1.84 | .74 | .39 | 4.11 |
| 15 | Detroit | Ariz. | 1.91 | .73 | .36 | 4.09 |
| 17 | Baltimore | LAR | 1.91 | .68 | .41 | 4.09 |
| 15 | Washington | Phil. | 1.88 | .61 | .48 | 4.05 |
| 17 | Washington | Phil. | 1.88 | .61 | .48 | 4.05 |
| 17 | NY Jets | T.B. | 1.82 | .59 | .50 | 4.00 |
| 15 | Atlanta | S.F. | 1.64 | .55 | .64 | 4.00 |
| 17 | Atlanta | Buff. | 1.45 | .73 | .50 | 3.91 |
| 15 | Chicago | Min. | 2.14 | .36 | .50 | 3.86 |
| 15 | Baltimore | G.B. | 2.09 | .44 | .44 | 3.84 |
| 15 | Seattle | LAR | 1.59 | .68 | .41 | 3.77 |
| 17 | Jacksonville | N.E. | 1.86 | .56 | .34 | 3.66 |
Question 5
Currently I am in first place in a 10-team league that started in 1980. This week my third receiver is Michael Gallup or Dawson Knox. TDs play heavier in our scoring than yardage. Who should I pick?
Bryce McWalter (Seattle, WA)
I had Gallup (who played on Thursday night) higher on my board. I saw a few blurbs about Amari Cooper being at less than full capacity, and there’s also the dynamic of the Saints having more ability than others to match up against No. 1 wide receivers (with Marshon Lattimore). I would think the Saints would be more worried about CeeDee Lamb than Gallup, so perhaps a little more than usual from Gallup in the Thursday night game. With the Bills, I fear that New England defense. As well as the Patriots have been playing, I think it’s in line to rank all of those Buffalo pieces lower than usual. And New England has had more success than other teams at playing really well against tight ends. They’ve really shut down Kyle Pitts and Mike Gesicki this year, and they shut out Darren Waller in September of last year.
Question 6
Tried to trade Josh Allen for Prescott in two leagues. No dice. Wondering if I should try to trade Allen for Hurts as Hurts schedule is awesome and Allen's is treacherous: NE twice, Carolina and TB.
Jeff Zwiers (Bellingham, WA)
I think you’re just going to have to ride it out and hope for the best. The Bills have been inconsistent and frustrating, but that’s still a talent-laden offense, and Allen still has those pass-run dynamics working in his favor. I was leery of Allen in that game against the Saints last week, and he put up 4 TDs. As well as the Patriots are playing right now, it’s tough for any defense to get out of a game without Allen putting up a couple of touchdowns one way or another.