The Vikings are going with Kevin O’Connell as their new coach. I would think that would be a downgrade for Dalvin Cook.

Not that I have a super strong feelings about O’Connell, who’s coming out of the Sean McVay coaching tree. But the Vikings in recent years have been influenced by Mike Zimmer and Gary Kubiak (with his son Kliff taking over last year), and those guys were heavily invested in the running game. In general, when you’ve had a running back with the Kubiak stamp on him over the years, that’s been a good thing.

In Gary Kubiak’s final two seasons with the Vikings, Minnesota’s running backs averaged a league-high 26.9 rushing attempts per game, while also catching 173 passes in those 32 games – they were putting the ball in Cook’s hands constantly. They were not as dominant last year, but with this new direction now, I think it’s pretty clear they’re not getting back to what they were doing in 2019 and 2020.

The Rams won the Super Bowl last year, but their running game was pretty modest all along. Combined, the running backs averaged only 92 rushing yards per game, which is a middle-of-the-pack number, and they were one of only nine teams whose running backs scored fewer than 10 rushing touchdowns. Nine TD runs in 17 games, that’s about one every other week.

Also note that the Rams didn’t include their running backs much in the passing game last year. Their running backs, in fact, ranked last in three different receiving categories – catches (53), yards (314) and yards per catch (5.9). So if we’re using PPR scoring, LA’s running backs outperformed only three teams last year – Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans.

Minnesota also finished with below-average running back production last year, but it got top-5 production in each of the previous two seasons – over 30 PPR per week in both of them.

Over the last three years, Minnesota’s running backs (using PPR scoring) have finished 5th, 4th and 19th in production. The Rams’ running backs in those three seasons have finished 29th, 21st and 29th.

O’Connell, of course, is somewhat of an unknown quantity. He didn’t have final say on those LA offenses. Maybe he runs it more often and more effectively than I’m expecting. We’re early in the process, with the Vikings needing to figure out if they’re going to keep Kirk Cousins around. But if we’re drafting today, my expectation is that Cook will be selected a little earlier than I would be considering him.

PRODUCTION BY RUNNING BACKS
OffenseRunRecTotalTDPPR
Indianapolis2,2196782,8972430.3
New England1,8368052,6412630.2
Cleveland2,2216822,9032129.4
LA Chargers1,4728792,3512327.9
Tennessee2,1086272,7351726.9
Tampa Bay1,4966982,1942026.4
Dallas1,8946532,5471726.4
Washington1,6198142,4331726.4
Arizona1,4957622,2572125.9
Green Bay1,7157122,4271825.9
Detroit1,6637602,4231425.7
Las Vegas1,3888692,2571525.5
Atlanta1,3618962,2571625.4
Cincinnati1,5796652,2442025.3
Kansas City1,4198242,2431824.8
Denver1,8635512,4141724.5
Philadelphia1,8755132,3881624.0
Seattle1,7825262,3081623.3
Minnesota1,7756032,3781022.8
Carolina1,2718642,135922.0
San Francisco1,5456472,1921222.0
Buffalo1,3435201,8631620.9
NY Jets1,3657752,140920.7
New Orleans1,3396421,9811120.2
Chicago1,4505041,9541220.0
Baltimore1,3534111,7641619.7
NY Giants1,2895671,856919.4
Pittsburgh1,3385141,8521019.2
LA Rams1,5573141,8711318.7
Miami1,3394271,7661118.5
Houston1,1935571,750717.4
Jacksonville1,2424171,6591117.1
PRODUCTION BY RUNNING BACKS (2019-20 seasons)
YearOffenseRunRecTotalTDPPR
2019LA Chargers1,3991,3572,7562234.7
2020New Orleans1,7359872,7222633.8
2020Indianapolis1,8839162,7992032.1
2019New England1,5601,1342,6942031.9
2019Carolina1,5251,0682,5932131.8
2019San Francisco2,0517532,8042531.7
2020San Francisco1,7088382,5462631.5
2019Minnesota2,0028552,8571931.1
2020Minnesota2,1106512,7612430.9
2019Green Bay1,5828532,4352530.9
2020Cleveland2,1264832,6092328.7
2020Washington1,4188482,2661828.4
2020Green Bay1,9266962,6221628.1
2019Philadelphia1,6848062,4901827.9
2020LA Chargers1,5278902,4171026.9
2019New Orleans1,5158242,3391226.9
2020Tennessee2,3892402,6292026.3
2020New England1,6457722,4171426.3
2019Oakland1,6998252,5241126.0
2019Cleveland1,7437262,4691326.0
2020Las Vegas1,6296132,2421725.8
2019Baltimore1,9544092,3632025.3
2019Dallas1,8125272,3391725.3
2020Miami1,3808582,2381225.1
2020Detroit1,3116661,9772024.9
2019Seattle1,8205042,3241624.8
2020Seattle1,3805941,9741924.5
2019Denver1,5206412,1611324.5
2019Arizona1,2926591,9511924.1
2019Kansas City1,2926481,9401724.1
2019Indianapolis1,8325042,3361323.9
2019Tennessee1,7754242,1991923.8
2020Baltimore1,8863642,2501823.8
2020Tampa Bay1,4855332,0181523.5
2020Arizona1,4055571,9621623.3
2019Tampa Bay1,2217231,9441523.0
2020Carolina1,1346331,7671623.0
2020Dallas1,4385311,9691322.2
2019Pittsburgh1,2866401,9261122.0
2020Cincinnati1,3025891,8911321.9
2019Chicago1,1356631,7981021.9
2019Atlanta1,1716081,7791421.9
2020LA Rams1,6684442,1121421.6
2020Chicago1,4105521,9621321.5
2020Jacksonville1,2405911,8311121.2
2020Atlanta1,4254971,9221121.0
2020Kansas City1,3365841,9201120.9
2019Washington1,3716632,034820.4
2019NY Giants1,2795591,8381220.3
2019Jacksonville1,2876891,976520.0
2019Houston1,5304611,9911120.0
2019Detroit1,3855011,886819.5
2020Denver1,6692721,9411119.5
2019Cincinnati1,3075341,841919.1
2019LA Rams1,2682601,5281919.0
2020Houston1,0185971,6151118.5
2020NY Giants1,2563981,6541218.5
2020Philadelphia1,3504361,786918.3
2019Buffalo1,4474601,907618.0
2020NY Jets1,3833861,769817.9
2020Buffalo1,3014061,7071017.8
2019NY Jets1,1335841,717417.6
2020Pittsburgh1,2303761,6061017.5
2019Miami8335811,414515.8

—Ian Allan