There's a wide variance on opinions regarding Christian McCaffrey next year. He was an elite back in 2018 and 2019, of course, but has missed most of the last two seasons. Can he bounce back in 2022?

I thought I'd look at the past 20 years of running backs to help answer this question. I wanted a broad enough field to be useful, so I went with backs who had put up multiple top-20 seasons (McCaffrey was much better than that, at No. 1 in PPR two years in a row). From those players, I looked for guys who missed most of their next two seasons, like McCaffrey. How many of those players returned to put up significant numbers after that?

Plenty of guys have missed a year (or most of one) due to injury and bounced back fine. Ahman Green, Jamaal Charles, Jamaal Lewis and Deuce McCallister, to name just a few. Joe Mixon just did so after missing most of 2020. There was nothing wrong with everyone expecting a nice bounce-back from McCaffrey this season.

But two years? That's less common.

Some players in this situation were a few years older than McCaffrey. Larry Johnson, for example, was 29-30 years old when he was trying to come back from a couple of injury-plagued seasons in Kansas City. Priest Holmes was even older. Those guys aren't as relevant; McCaffrey is just 25. So I don't think he's similar to guys who failed to put up significant numbers with 30-year-old bodies.

I was able to come up with a few players who have done it -- missed most of two seasons, then still had quality seasons after that. Not a ton of them, but a few.

I fudged a little to include the most successful of these players, Reggie Bush. He missed a good chunk of 2008 and then more than half of 2010. Not consecutive years. But he more or less fit my desired criteria of injury-prone for a couple of years, then a significant player.

Table shows the four running backs from the last 20 years who have put up 1-2 top 20 seasons, missed most of the next two or three years for one reason or another -- injury, retirement (thank you, Ricky Williams), and then put up a significant ensuing season or seasons. Significant ensuing seasons (defined here as top-20) are in bold.

I also threw Saquon Barkley into the table. He only missed one season; he was around for most games last year. But I think he's similar: wasn't fully healthy for some of last year, and like McCaffrey is a question mark for 2022 as far as being able to bounce back.

TOP-20 RBS WHO MISSED EXTENSIVE TIME, BOUNCED BACK (2000-)
YearPlayerTmAgeGRunRecTDPPRRk
2001Ricky WilliamsNOR241612455117277.67
2002Ricky WilliamsMIA2516185336317370.63
2003Ricky WilliamsMIA2616137235110282.39
2005Ricky WilliamsMIA2812743936136.628
2007Ricky WilliamsMIA30115001.5152
2008Ricky WilliamsMIA31166592195146.837
2009Ricky WilliamsMIA3216112126413253.56
2010Ricky WilliamsMIA33166731413118.441
2011Ricky WilliamsBAL341644483277.757
2006Reggie BushNOR21165657429272.79
2007Reggie BushNOR22125814176214.812
2008Reggie BushNOR23104044409190.422
2009Reggie BushNOR24143903358167.529
2010Reggie BushNOR258150208175.859
2011Reggie BushMIA261510862967223.213
2012Reggie BushMIA27169862928210.814
2013Reggie BushDET281410065067247.27
2009Knowshon MorenoDEN22169472139198.018
2010Knowshon MorenoDEN23137793728200.118
2011Knowshon MorenoDEN247179101145.081
2012Knowshon MorenoDEN2585251674114.236
2013Knowshon MorenoDEN2616103854813296.64
2012Doug MartinTAM2316145447212313.62
2013Doug MartinTAM24645666170.257
2014Doug MartinTAM251149464280.852
2015Doug MartinTAM261614022717242.34
2017Christian McCaffreyCAR21164356517230.69
2018Christian McCaffreyCAR2216109886713388.01
2019Christian McCaffreyCAR23161387100519471.21
2020Christian McCaffreyCAR243225149690.454
2021Christian McCaffreyCAR2574423432127.539
2022Christian McCaffreyCAR26??????
2018Saquon BarkleyNYG2116130772115385.82
2019Saquon BarkleyNYG221310034388244.111
2020Saquon BarkleyNYG2323460015.4121
2021Saquon BarkleyNYG24135932634150.630
2022Saquon BarkleyNYG25??????

On behalf of McCaffrey and Barkley, the other backs on this list are also all former first-round picks. Sometimes that might be a factor in these guys getting multiple chances and opportunities -- teams might be less likely to be patient with former third-round picks.

But in general, at least you can look at these names and say, hey, Reggie Bush did it (and did it for multiple seasons). Even Knowshon Moreno did. So why not McCaffrey.

--Andy Richardson