Factoid

February 23, 2022

Christian McCaffrey

Can top back bounce back?

There's a wide variance on opinions regarding Christian McCaffrey next year. He was an elite back in 2018 and 2019, of course, but has missed most of the last two seasons. Can he bounce back in 2022?

I thought I'd look at the past 20 years of running backs to help answer this question. I wanted a broad enough field to be useful, so I went with backs who had put up multiple top-20 seasons (McCaffrey was much better than that, at No. 1 in PPR two years in a row). From those players, I looked for guys who missed most of their next two seasons, like McCaffrey. How many of those players returned to put up significant numbers after that?

Plenty of guys have missed a year (or most of one) due to injury and bounced back fine. Ahman Green, Jamaal Charles, Jamaal Lewis and Deuce McCallister, to name just a few. Joe Mixon just did so after missing most of 2020. There was nothing wrong with everyone expecting a nice bounce-back from McCaffrey this season.

But two years? That's less common.

Some players in this situation were a few years older than McCaffrey. Larry Johnson, for example, was 29-30 years old when he was trying to come back from a couple of injury-plagued seasons in Kansas City. Priest Holmes was even older. Those guys aren't as relevant; McCaffrey is just 25. So I don't think he's similar to guys who failed to put up significant numbers with 30-year-old bodies.

I was able to come up with a few players who have done it -- missed most of two seasons, then still had quality seasons after that. Not a ton of them, but a few.

I fudged a little to include the most successful of these players, Reggie Bush. He missed a good chunk of 2008 and then more than half of 2010. Not consecutive years. But he more or less fit my desired criteria of injury-prone for a couple of years, then a significant player.

Table shows the four running backs from the last 20 years who have put up 1-2 top 20 seasons, missed most of the next two or three years for one reason or another -- injury, retirement (thank you, Ricky Williams), and then put up a significant ensuing season or seasons. Significant ensuing seasons (defined here as top-20) are in bold.

I also threw Saquon Barkley into the table. He only missed one season; he was around for most games last year. But I think he's similar: wasn't fully healthy for some of last year, and like McCaffrey is a question mark for 2022 as far as being able to bounce back.

TOP-20 RBS WHO MISSED EXTENSIVE TIME, BOUNCED BACK (2000-)
Year	Player	Tm	Age	G	Run	Rec	TD	PPR	Rk
2001	Ricky Williams	NOR	24	16	1245	511	7	277.6	7
2002	Ricky Williams	MIA	25	16	1853	363	17	370.6	3
2003	Ricky Williams	MIA	26	16	1372	351	10	282.3	9
2005	Ricky Williams	MIA	28	12	743	93	6	136.6	28
2007	Ricky Williams	MIA	30	1	15	0	0	1.5	152
2008	Ricky Williams	MIA	31	16	659	219	5	146.8	37
2009	Ricky Williams	MIA	32	16	1121	264	13	253.5	6
2010	Ricky Williams	MIA	33	16	673	141	3	118.4	41
2011	Ricky Williams	BAL	34	16	444	83	2	77.7	57
2006	Reggie Bush	NOR	21	16	565	742	9	272.7	9
2007	Reggie Bush	NOR	22	12	581	417	6	214.8	12
2008	Reggie Bush	NOR	23	10	404	440	9	190.4	22
2009	Reggie Bush	NOR	24	14	390	335	8	167.5	29
2010	Reggie Bush	NOR	25	8	150	208	1	75.8	59
2011	Reggie Bush	MIA	26	15	1086	296	7	223.2	13
2012	Reggie Bush	MIA	27	16	986	292	8	210.8	14
2013	Reggie Bush	DET	28	14	1006	506	7	247.2	7
2009	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	22	16	947	213	9	198.0	18
2010	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	23	13	779	372	8	200.1	18
2011	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	24	7	179	101	1	45.0	81
2012	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	25	8	525	167	4	114.2	36
2013	Knowshon Moreno	DEN	26	16	1038	548	13	296.6	4
2012	Doug Martin	TAM	23	16	1454	472	12	313.6	2
2013	Doug Martin	TAM	24	6	456	66	1	70.2	57
2014	Doug Martin	TAM	25	11	494	64	2	80.8	52
2015	Doug Martin	TAM	26	16	1402	271	7	242.3	4
2017	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	21	16	435	651	7	230.6	9
2018	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	22	16	1098	867	13	388.0	1
2019	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	23	16	1387	1005	19	471.2	1
2020	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	24	3	225	149	6	90.4	54
2021	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	25	7	442	343	2	127.5	39
2022	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	26	?	?	?	?	?	?
2018	Saquon Barkley	NYG	21	16	1307	721	15	385.8	2
2019	Saquon Barkley	NYG	22	13	1003	438	8	244.1	11
2020	Saquon Barkley	NYG	23	2	34	60	0	15.4	121
2021	Saquon Barkley	NYG	24	13	593	263	4	150.6	30
2022	Saquon Barkley	NYG	25	?	?	?	?	?	?

On behalf of McCaffrey and Barkley, the other backs on this list are also all former first-round picks. Sometimes that might be a factor in these guys getting multiple chances and opportunities -- teams might be less likely to be patient with former third-round picks.

But in general, at least you can look at these names and say, hey, Reggie Bush did it (and did it for multiple seasons). Even Knowshon Moreno did. So why not McCaffrey.

--Andy Richardson

Christian McCaffrey Saquon Barkley

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